Pittsburgh 2026 Preview — No. 35 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?

Pittsburgh opens No. 35 nationally and No. 6 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 6.4 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.4 regular-season wins.

Pittsburgh grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.

There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.

The schedule grades No. 51 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Pittsburgh beats its 6.4-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachPat Narduzzi38–27 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger16 in · 21 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback64

Offensive line51

Receivers47

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InCarson KentTE · from Oklahoma · 3★

InRaion StraderCB · from Auburn · 3★

InJeremiah WarrenDL · from Illinois · 3★

InAlex Sanford Jr.LB · from Purdue · 3★

InLa'Vell WrightRB · from Western Kentucky · 3★

InDeMarco WardLB · from Memphis · 3★

InKanye ThompsonCB · from Slippery Rock · 3★

InKeylen DavisIOL · from Akron · 3★

InEliyt NairneDL · from Tulane · 3★

InElijah LaggTE · from UAB · 3★

InSamuel HunsakerK · from Northern Arizona · 3★

InMalik KnightWR · from Western Carolina · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBMason Heintschel4.8 pts94% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

WRMalik Knight0.7 pts52% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WRCataurus Hicks0.7 pts53% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRCensere Lee0.7 pts49% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

RBJa'Kyrian Turner0.7 pts76% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

WRBryce Yates0.7 pts48% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#18Malik KnightFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina

#82Elijah LaggMountain Home, ARTE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom UAB

#85Carson KentMilton, GATE0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma

#29La'Vell WrightLouisville, KYRB0.5 pts56% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky

#56Keylen DavisIndianapolis, INOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Akron

#74Netinho OlivieriNewton, MAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Pennsylvania

#95Eliyt NairneCharlotte, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Tulane

#45Jeremiah WarrenBelleville, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Illinois

#23Kanye ThompsonMckeesport, PADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Slippery Rock

#16Raion StraderPittsburgh, PADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Auburn

#10Alex Sanford Jr.Oxford, MSLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Purdue

#31DeMarco WardDuluth, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Memphis

#98Gabe RussoMontgomery, ALP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Idaho State

#59Justin SchmidtPittsburgh, PALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Purdue

#11Holden GerinerSavannah, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Texas State

#6Mason HeintschelOregon, OHQB4.8 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning

#3Cataurus HicksMiami, FLWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning

#10Censere LeeClearwater, FLWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning

#25Ja'Kyrian TurnerWildwood, FLRB0.7 pts76% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning

#80Bryce YatesEttrick, VAWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#60Akram ElnagmiBristolOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning

#55BJ WilliamsLawrenceville, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning

#72Isaiah MontgomeryVirginia Beach, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning

#51Jiavani CooleyErie, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning

#62Jordan FieldsHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning

#64Josh NindlGibsonia, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning

#66Keith GouveiaStephens City, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning

#53Kendall StanleyAlbany, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning

#58Mason LindsayHyattsville, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning

#70Ryan BaerEastlake, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbReturning

#71Ryan CarrettaGalena, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning

#50Shep TurkJefferson Hills, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning

#68Torian ChesterAlbany, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning

#63Ty BancoWashington, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 320 lbReturning

#66Ben KauffmanMedia, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning

#49Charlie DonehuePowell, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 275 lbReturning

#50Denim CookColumbus, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning

#2Isaiah NealWashington, DCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning

#56Jaeden MooreHanford, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning

#44Jimmy ScottCheektowaga, NYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbReturning

#35JuJu AndersonOrlando, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning

#11Nick JamesBradenton, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning

#55Sean FitzSimmonsMonaca, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#90Trevor SommersDavie, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning

#93Ty YuhasMunhall, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning

#5Zach CrothersWeston, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning

#28Justin CookHarrisburg, PARB0.5 pts61% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning

#40Amah AgwuLynbrook, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning

#14Benny HaselrigAllison Park, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#84Cam SappMiami, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning

#41Jake SassicPittsburgh, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning

#24Tyreek RobinsonShreveport, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning

#44Adam HowanitzArchbald, PATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning

#86Max HuntTampa, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning

#32Truitt BrownTampa, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning

#26Allen BryantPahokee, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning

#17Cole WoodsonHaymarket, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning

#12Cruce BrookinsPittsburgh, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning

#14Josh GuerrierOcoee, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning

#27Nigel MaynardMurfreesboro, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning

#18Rashan MurrayPittsburgh, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning

#21Shadarian HarrisonLakeland, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#28Shawn Lee Jr.Harrisburg, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning

#43Valdez StuvaintsMckeesport, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning

#22Zion FergusonAtlanta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning

#17Tony KinslerDaytona Beach, FLWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning

#52Abe IbrahimBridgeville, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning

#0Braylan LovelaceLeechburg, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#24Cameron LindseyAliquippa, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning

#37Davin BrewtonNeptune, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning

#38Emmanuel TaylorVirginia Beach, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#19Jayden BonsuHillside, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning

#32Jeremiah MarcelinOpa Locka, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning

#30John WetzelLatrobe, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning

#54Justin ThompsonBowie, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning

#46Zach ZollersRoyersford, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#27Jaylin BrownOrlando, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning

#20Synkwan SmithRoswell, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 185 lbReturning

#92Kaemon TijerinaRedford, MIP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning

#12Beau JacksonWest Bloomfield, MIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning

#34Ethan ShineDoylestown, PARB0.7 pts70% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#77John CurranGibsonia, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#76Mike van der OordWestlake, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#78Nick HowardPearland, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 350 lbNew / unverified

#61Sean FranklinMars, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#77Dylan PitzerDerry, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#20Josh PittmanSuffolk, VADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#76Lincoln HokeSewickley, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#58Reston LehmanMcmurray, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#40Ty MillhimesHummelstown, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#22Bryan HamiltonTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified

#87Demetrice McCrayClermont, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#83Dylan WesterPalmetto, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#30Jack LesniewiczHinsdale, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#81Rodney DunbarThomasville, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#88Wyatt VillarrealCelina, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#39D'Angelo StockerCoatesville, PADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#29Da'Ron BarksdalePittsburgh, PADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#41Isaac PattersonWesterville, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#47Jaxson MarkWesterville, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#25Kentrail McRae Jr.Clearwater, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#15Tony ForneyDecatur, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#48Desmond JohnsonMiami, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#34Marcus JenningsSouthfield, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#8Angelo RendaSouthlake, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#5Corey DaileySeguin, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′6″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#19Davin FriedmanErie, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#26Damon Ferguson Jr.Gwynn Oak, MDRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#93Antonio ChadhaBryn Mawr, PAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#94Carter GenchiPowder Springs, GAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbNew / unverified

#91Sam HunsakerGilbert, AZPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#57Alex RudolphEdwardsburg, MILS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

Miami (OH)Non-conference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 20–30 · 71% win

HomeSep 512:30 PM EDT · model ↗2

UCFNon-conference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 68% win

HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3

SyracuseConference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 18–31 · 76% win

HomeSep 177:30 PM EDT · model ↗4

BucknellNon-conference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 9–43 · 97% win

HomeSep 2612:00 PM EDT · model ↗5

Virginia TechConference · Lane Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 54% win

AwayOct 27:00 PM EDT · model ↗6

North CarolinaConference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 20–30 · 70% win

HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7

Boston CollegeConference · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 4M 29–23 · 65% win

AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8

MiamiConference · Hard Rock Stadium · 4M 19–32 · 24% win

AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9

Georgia TechConference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 60% win

HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗11

Florida StateConference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 58% win

HomeNov 137:00 PM EST · model ↗12

LouisvilleConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 22–27 · 39% win

AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13

CaliforniaConference · California Memorial Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 56% win

AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case4 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint6 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case9 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Pittsburgh diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The number is below a full possession and Pittsburgh's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.

Pass or fade when

The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.

Watch first

Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.

Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?