The 2026 outlook
Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?
Virginia opens No. 36 nationally and No. 7 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 5.7 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.5 regular-season wins.
Virginia grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 64 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Virginia beats its 6.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachTony Elliott22–26 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger31 in · 22 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#10Eli HolsteinZachary, LAQB3.2 pts57% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#7Beau PribulaYork, PAQB2.2 pts42% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#4Jacquon GibsonFayetteville, NCWR0.8 pts68% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Massachusetts
#21Jekail MiddlebrookAtlanta, GARB0.7 pts80% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#18Da'Shawn MartinSpringfield, OHWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Kent State
#22Tyson DavisFlint, MIWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Central Michigan
#2Peyton LewisSalem, VARB0.5 pts57% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#28Solomon BeebeMontgomery, ALRB0.5 pts55% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#11Rico Flores Jr.North Highlands, CAWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#76Alex PayneGainesville, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom USC
#69Ryan BrubakerReamstown, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#88Connor CoxJacksonville, FLTE0.5 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#99Devon BaxterClinton, MDDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 244 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#94Ezekiel LarryPalmdale, CADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Yale
#16Matthew Fobbs-WhiteMonroe, LADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#33Nnanna AnyanwuHampton, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom UTSA
#44Darrion Henry-YoungCincinnati, OHDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#92Jonathan AllenBirmingham, ALDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 304 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#36Justin TownsendRandolph, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Columbia
#88Kervins ChouteFort Lauderdale, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 293 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#86Lukas UngarMendham, NJTE0.4 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#10Jacobie HendersonCharlotte, NCCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#17Justin RossGastonia, NCCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Navy
#20Omillio AgardPhiladelphia, PACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#6Brandyn HillmanPortsmouth, VAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#8Christian EllisJacksonville, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#18Jalen McNairWhite Plains, MDS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 221 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#23Jaylen JonesCharlotte, NCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#31Patrick CampbellSnellville, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Dartmouth
#50Wyatt RubinoffSt. Mary's, GALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom New Hampshire
#9Dakota TwittyColumbus, NCTE0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbReturning
#89John RogersThe Plains, VATE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#15Dillon Newton-ShortMatoaca, VAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbReturning
#72Ben YorkBurke, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 314 lbReturning
#64Cole SurberBristow, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#61Dane SteeleCharlotte, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbReturning
#70Dane WleklinskiDublin, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 302 lbReturning
#60Drake MetcalfOrange, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 304 lbReturning
#65Grant EllingerNaperville, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbReturning
#51Grayson ReidWashington, DCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 309 lbReturning
#55Jim Harris Jr.Muskegon, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#79Jon AdairFranklin, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbReturning
#54Makilan ThomasLittle Rock, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 317 lbReturning
#52McKale BoleyHattiesburg, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 329 lbReturning
#71Monroe MillsColumbia, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 322 lbReturning
#58Noah HartsoeHenrico, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 317 lbReturning
#77Noah JoseyBrentwood, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#67Will RosenRichmond, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
#3Noah VaughnMaryville, TNRB0.6 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 196 lbReturning
#5Kameron CourtneyManassas, VAWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#0Xavier BrownLexington, KYRB0.6 pts63% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 202 lbReturning
#93Billy KoudelkaLynchburg, VADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 256 lbReturning
#19Evan WardPeachtree City, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#14Fisher CamacGilbert, AZDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 262 lbReturning
#47Gabe SneedBig Stone Gap, VADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#85Jewett HayesCincinnati, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 241 lbReturning
#55Anthony BrittonNorfolk, VADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbReturning
#46Chase MorrisonRoswell, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 271 lbReturning
#91Jason HammondPembroke Pines, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 284 lbReturning
#51Sichan JohnLawrenceville, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbReturning
#56Tyler SimmonsWindermere, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 278 lbReturning
#84Isaiah RobinsonChester, VAWR0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#29CJ SpenceChesapeake, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 204 lbReturning
#81TeKai KirbyFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 232 lbReturning
#80Trevor LaddEncinitas, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 242 lbReturning
#23Triston WardGriswold, CTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbReturning
#8TyLyric ColemanDanville, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 198 lbReturning
#94Hayden RollisonRichmond, VATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#30Henry OmohundroMidlothian, VATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 251 lbReturning
#87Justin ZamesTampa, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 238 lbReturning
#83Willem ThurberBrattleboro, VTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 234 lbReturning
#25Xay DavisRichmond, VARB0.5 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#9Jam JacksonPlant City, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 184 lbReturning
#7Josiah PersingerRoanoke, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 179 lbReturning
#3Kevon GrayAtlanta, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#38Armstrong JonesGreenville, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbReturning
#4Corey CostnerBaltimore, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 213 lbReturning
#30Ethan MinterChester, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#21Keke AdamsHartford, CTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbReturning
#34Kevin Chadwick Jr.Vienna, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 209 lbReturning
#1Montino WilliamsChesterfield, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 211 lbReturning
#2Donavon PlattJamestown, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 212 lbReturning
#0Ja'Maric MorrisTimmonsville, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 219 lbReturning
#15Lukas SankerCharlottesville, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbReturning
#13Josiah AbdullahColumbus, GAWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 192 lbReturning
#26Caleb HardyMcdonough, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 217 lbReturning
#49Cayden Cook-CashGreenville, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 231 lbReturning
#42Isaiah ReeseGilford, NHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 222 lbReturning
#45Justin RoweOttawa, ONLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 239 lbReturning
#5Kam RobinsonTappahannock, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 239 lbReturning
#32Landon DanleyIrmo, SCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#11Maddox MarcellusMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 232 lbReturning
#13Myles BrownColumbia, SCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 226 lbReturning
#41Will BettridgeMiami, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbReturning
#38Daniel SparksGadsden, ALP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 226 lbReturning
#99Elijah SlibeckIndianapolis, INP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 236 lbReturning
#49Jacob TannenbaumWallingford, CTLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbReturning
#14Boone LourdLos Angeles, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 203 lbReturning
#6Cole GeerGriswold, CTQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 209 lbReturning
#75Dylan BiehlSuwanee, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 277 lbNew / unverified
#57Luke HatfieldHaymarket, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#66Mikey GildeaNew Canaan, CTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 298 lbNew / unverified
#53Gavin JohnsonRichmond, VADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 234 lbNew / unverified
#96Bull RichardsonRichmond, VADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#45Brand MorganAtlanta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#82DaMari CarterRichmond, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#85Dylan CopeTrussville, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#26Jack RhodesAugusta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#22Isaiah HarrisCharlottesville, VACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#29Jayden CovilChesapeake, VACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 161 lbNew / unverified
#27Alex DunnLynchburg, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#28Dallas BrannonCharlotte, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#25Derek UranCincinnati, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#16Ely HamrickShelby, NCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#17Jae'Oyn WilliamsWoodbridge, VAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′10″ · 217 lbNew / unverified
#37Jack StevensAtherton, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#14Tim HamannDresdenPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1NC StateConference · Scott Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 55% win
HomeAug 293:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Norfolk StateNon-conference · Scott Stadium · 4M 9–42 · 97% win
HomeSep 117:00 PM EDT · model ↗3West VirginiaNon-conference · Bank of America Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 66% win
NeutralSep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
DelawareNon-conference · Scott Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 79% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Florida StateConference · Doak Campbell Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 43% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
SyracuseConference · Scott Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 75% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
SMUConference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 36% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
DukeConference · Scott Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 59% win
HomeOct 237:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Wake ForestConference · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 23–24 · 48% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗11
CaliforniaConference · Scott Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 67% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
North CarolinaConference · Scott Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 68% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Virginia TechConference · Lane Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 52% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Virginia diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Virginia's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?