The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
Purdue opens No. 78 nationally and No. 17 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.4 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.7 regular-season wins.
Purdue profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 21 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Purdue beats its 3.7-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBarry Odom22–18 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger29 in · 24 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#17Bisi OwensCooksville, MDWR0.9 pts60% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Pennsylvania
#19Asaad WaseemApopka, FLWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#3Xavier TownsendTampa, FLWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#0Jaylan HornsbyMontreal, PQWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#20Travis Terrell Jr.Atlanta, GARB0.6 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Jackson State
#16Kylan FoxValdosta, GATE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#50Boaz StanleyBogart, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#77Jatavius ShiversVilla Rica, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#73Makai SainaArlington, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom USC
#59Micah BanuelosAuburn, WAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom USC
#68Nuku MafiRose Park, UTOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#2Fame IjeboiFolcroft, PARB0.5 pts61% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Minnesota
#4Jerrick GibsonGainesville, FLRB0.5 pts61% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#18Elo ModozieSaint Augustine, FLDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Georgia
#11Keyshawn BurgosChesterfield, VADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#92Curt NealCornelius, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#94Rodney LoraNorth Arlington, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#97Wisdom SimmsKannapolis, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina Central
#29Dee NewsomeTuscumbia, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Samford
#7Don SaundersSan Diego, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#2Jaden ManghamBirmingham, MIDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#13John SlaughterClarksdale, MSDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#21Justin DensonProvidence, RIDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#6Mister ClarkOpa Locka, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Florida International
#16Anthony SpecaBridgeville, PALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#25Hudson MillerIndianapolis, INLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#0Jojo HaydenEast St. Louis, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#47Tre MooreChandler, AZLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom San Diego
#42Dylan DrennanDallas, TXP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#15Ryan BrowneClarkston, MIQB4.9 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#12Corey SmithBrownsburg, INWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#81George BurhennMcCordsville, INTE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#10Jesse WatsonSt. Louis, MOWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning
#76Ethan TrentCarmel, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#54Hayden TimosciekLockport, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 280 lbReturning
#79Joey TanonaZionsville, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#72Jude McCoskeyTerre Haute, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 320 lbReturning
#55Marc Nave Jr.Toledo, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 355 lbReturning
#56Marques EasleyKankakee, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#51Mason VicariSacramento, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#70Max ParrottCentennial, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#52Rocco DalyPark City, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 275 lbReturning
#78Sankeerth VeluriCarmel, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#57Tom EwingWestfield, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#58Breeon IshmailCincinnati, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#8CJ MaddenEllenwood, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#31Finn GoodmanLake Forest, ILDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#19Landon BrooksAlbany, INDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#41Mason AlnuttEast Amherst, NYDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#93Sam GoellnerSt. Louis, MODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#23Trey SmithOcoee, FLDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#98Drake CarlsonNashville, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbReturning
#90Elijah St. JohnOttawa, ONDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#40Ian JeffriesSouthaven, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbReturning
#96Jordan CreeRemington, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#9TJ LindseyLittle Rock, ARDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#5Chauncey MagwoodAlbany, GAWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#22Antonio HarrisChandler, INRB0.5 pts62% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#83Andrew AdkisonMountain View, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#8De'Nylon MorrissetteStone Mountain, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#9Jalil HallDrexel Hill, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#84Nolan BuckmanIndianapolis, INWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#33Quinn RosenkranzAnaheim, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning
#43Jackson BerrymanFort Worth, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 260 lbReturning
#41Jon GrimmettPauls Valley, OKTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#85Luca PuccinelliGlen Allen, VATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#94Luke ShorterElmhurst, ILTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 250 lbReturning
#11Tra'Mar HarrisCincinnati, OHWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#32D'mon MarableKnoxville, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#35DJ GreeneIndianapolis, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#48Donivan TaylorColumbia, MODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#4Hudauri HinesIndianapolis, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#39Isaiah NeedamIndianapolis, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#36Kaleb RIchmondDetroit, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#22Maxwell BarbeeLong Beach, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#12Ryan TurnerBroward County, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#1Smiley BradfordSt. Louis, MODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#17Traveon WrightPerry, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#15Vi'Naz CobbSt. Louis, MODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#38Zyntreacs OteyFranklin, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#5Charles CorreaKuli'ou'ou, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#51Jaxon OttMarion, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#27Owen DavisRichwood, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#30Parker MeeseDallas, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#20Winston BerglundCarmel, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#31Carter HolsworthJasper, INRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 218 lbReturning
#26Jack WeeterIndianapolis, INPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#45Seth TurnerMalvern, PAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#95Sam DubwigCabot, ARP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#89Luke KlareGuilford, INLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbReturning
#46Luke RaabBrentwood, TNLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#18Bennett MeredithHoover, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#1Evans ChubaMontreal, PQQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#7Garyt OdomFayetteville, ARQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#65Brock BrownfieldNew Palestine, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#58James Williams Jr.Fort Wayne, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#75Rico SchrieberChicago, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#71Terrell Berryhill Jr.St. Louis, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#91Aiden SoleckiDowners Grove, ILDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#33Jeremy LewisSt. Louis, MODE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#45Katrell WebbLithonia, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#84Maximilian CarmicleHazel Crest, ILDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#99Josiah HopeRadcliff, KYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#44Kobe CherryGreenwood, INDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#80Brandon KinseyMiami, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#88Jojo JohnsonGoochland, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#13Ricky Sampson Jr.Las Vegas, NVWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#6Ar'mari TownsSelma, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#87Cooper McCutchanCincinnati, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#28Dana GreenhowRiverdale, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#26Dax NolesNorman, OKDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#14Emoni SmithHilltop, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#3Jett GoldsberryLincoln City, INDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#24Raderrion DanielsMemphis, TNDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#10Ta'Vari HamptonSanford, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#42Brayden SweeneyGrand Rapids, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#14Corin BerryCovina, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#24Izaiah WrightInkster, MIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#92Jacobo Echeverria LozanoPittsburgh, PAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Indiana StateNon-conference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 15–38 · 90% win
HomeSep 47:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Wake ForestNon-conference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 46% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
UCLAConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 23–29 · 38% win
AwaySep 1911:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Notre DameNon-conference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 35–18 · 17% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
IllinoisConference · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 4M 21–32 · 29% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
MinnesotaConference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 48% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
WashingtonConference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 31–22 · 31% win
HomeOct 168:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Penn StateConference · Beaver Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 21% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
MarylandConference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 52% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
IowaConference · Kinnick Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 25% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
WisconsinConference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 50% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
IndianaConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 16–37 · 13% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Purdue diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Purdue to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?