The 2026 outlook
Can this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?
San José State opens No. 118 nationally and No. 7 of 10 in the Mountain West. The 4M baseline rates the roster 11.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5 regular-season wins.
San José State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 99 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether San José State beats its 5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachKen Niumatalolo18–31 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Luke WeaverManteca, CAQB4.7 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Hawai'i
#2Jerry McClureCoronado, CAWR0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#63Brian TapuSouth AucklandOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#72Lavaka TaukeiahoSouth Jordan, UTOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#42Ian ShewellGilbert, AZDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#90Jayland McGlothenLas Vegas, NVDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#10Anthony IveyLancaster, PAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#4Dominique McKenzieSt. George, UTWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom BYU
#0Isaiah BuxtonSan Diego, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#22Jonathan WattsUnion City, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Idaho State
#1Brian Dukes Jr.Spring Valley, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Cal Poly
#27Jackson BartonPhoenix, AZS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Nevada
#7Aizik MahukaMililani, HILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#22Tyler JacklichModesto, CARB0.3 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#44Dylan AguileraElkridge, MDLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Lafayette
#7Tama AmisoneKapolei, HIWR0.8 pts69% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#6Jabari BatesCompton, CARB0.7 pts65% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 180 lbReturning
#11Malachi RileyMoreno Valley, CAWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbReturning
#54Daniel MoleniSandy, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#77Daniel TuliauLong Beach, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#78David PerezDowney, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#75Joseph HarbertSan Francisco, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#76Manuel SernaPittsburg, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#68Mitchell BrownSan Jose, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#64Nathan BalestrieriWalnut Creek, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#56Simeon AfalavaMoreno Valley, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#62Tyler ChenRancho Cucamonga, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning
#95Colton ThomasCarlsbad, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 270 lbReturning
#48Dejon RoneyRancho Cucamonga, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbReturning
#89Etu FinauOakland, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#57Justin StearnsSan Diego, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#99Nate LewisCarmichael, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#92Noa SiaosiVacaville, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbReturning
#51Solomone LangiProvo, UTDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 295 lbReturning
#13Cooper HochCosta Mesa, CAWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#39Tuli Tagovailoa-AmosaEwa Beach, HIS0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#9Jase NixSan Marcos, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#80Jeremiah FungPalo Alto, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#17Ryker RuelasVancouver, WAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbReturning
#18Trace HernandezLos Banos, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbReturning
#82Braiden Bachich-DixonSan Rafael, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#83Kamaehu Kopa-KaawalauoleEwa Beach, HITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#88Ryan BoultwoodUpland, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#32Caleb WomackSanta Cruz, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#10Greco CarrilloSacramento, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#5Kejuan Bullard Jr.Watts, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Runye NortonJacksonville, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#21Charles Cox IIIConcord, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#31Hunter NowellHuntington Beach, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#2Maliki CrawfordOxnard, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbReturning
#23Nassir PittersVallejo, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#40Blake TabaracciPark City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#53Brady Van BennekumSanta Clarita, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#19Cayden WoolwineSan Marcos, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#11Champ KapanuiHenderson, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#4Dylan LeeFrench Camp, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#6Ethan PowellSan Bernardino, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#97John NorwoodMilpitas, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#16Luke RicheyMorgan Hill, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#24Malakai HoeftBelmont, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#3Naseri DanielsonStockton, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#56Sirr BibleLong Beach, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#25Zane CarterVentura, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#20Viliami TeuEast Palo Alto, CARB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#24Sir AutrySan Diego, CARB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#99Mathias BrownFullerton, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#49Trent CarrizosaSan Jose, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#16CJ LeeSacramento, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbReturning
#8Robert McDanielHughson, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#0Jordan AndersonInglewood, CAWR0.4 pts30% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#55Greg ShadeLaguna Hills, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#70Ikiansio TupouPalo Alto, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#65Johnny NotarianniHesperia, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#66Kamuela WilhelmKailua, HIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#67Keenan ParksLoveland, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#74Mitchell JonesFullerton, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#91Auma JenningsLong Beach, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#41Bronx LetuligasenoaOceanside, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#45Jeremiah TuiileilaSacramento, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#94Russell DevanyClovis, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#50Star TaimaniAntioch, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#1Carson ClarkLos Angeles, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#19Cody HallMartinez, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#23Devin OlmandeOxnard, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#33Parris Vernon Jr.San Diego, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#84Max FriedmanMerced, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#85Shane KileySan Clemente, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#28Cole GholarVallejo, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#12Francois Jones Jr.Venice, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#14Jayden RobertsonLas Vegas, NVCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#13Pierce WalkerKeizer, ORS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#20Lance MitchellOakland, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#15Skylar TiatiaBrisbane, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#26Viliami LotoaniuAntioch, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#5Daniel RolovichNovato, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#14Hudson WyattCeres, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#28Aaron Cox Jr.Fresno, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#26Courshawn HillPhoenix, AZRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#21Isaiah CarlsonSeattle, WARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#29Joey FernandezHollister, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#36Trajan SinatraSan Jose, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#30Jaelen NicholsModesto, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#46Sam CowartRedwood City, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1USCNon-conference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 16–38 · 10% win
AwayAug 293:00 PM EDT · model ↗1
Eastern MichiganNon-conference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 26–28 · 45% win
AwaySep 46:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Cal PolyNon-conference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 21–32 · 73% win
HomeSep 1212:00 AM EDT · model ↗3Fresno StateNon-conference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 44% win
HomeSep 1911:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
Hawai'iConference · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 4M 23–29 · 37% win
AwayOct 311:59 PM EDT · model ↗6WyomingConference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 55% win
HomeOct 99:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
UTEPConference · Sun Bowl · 4M 26–23 · 55% win
AwayOct 179:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
NevadaConference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 49% win
AwayOct 245:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
New MexicoConference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 41% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Northern IllinoisConference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 62% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Air ForceConference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 26–30 · 41% win
AwayNov 147:00 PM EST · model ↗12
UNLVConference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 30–24 · 37% win
HomeNov 217:00 PM EST · model ↗13
North Dakota StateConference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeNov 273:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about San José State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows San José State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?