The 2026 outlook
Can this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?
Delaware opens No. 117 nationally and No. 7 of 10 in the CUSA. The 4M baseline rates the roster 11.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.1 regular-season wins.
Delaware begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 104 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Delaware beats its 4.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachRyan Carty7–6 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger13 in · 8 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#0Bryson GravesFlorence, SCWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 177 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#77Jack SmallNorthvale, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#67Mustafa FeikaColumbus, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Tiffin University
#3Kaderris RobertsZellwood, FLRB0.5 pts64% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#14James SteelSwedesboro, NJDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#88Sam SiafaDowningtown, PADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#96Dylan MannAtlanta, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Troy
#28Quincy SmithAtlanta, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Lenoir-Rhyne
#12Josh HumesHernando, MSTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#8Jaquise AlexanderTampa, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom North Dakota State
#29George MullinsWebster, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#20Jalen BellKissimmee, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom LIU Post
#31Tucker SmackSeverna Park, MDPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 174 lbTransfer infrom Salisbury University
#4Nick MinicucciMidland Park, NJQB4.9 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#18Sean WilsonAlpharetta, GAWR0.8 pts61% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#27Jo SilverWashington Township, NJRB0.7 pts76% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#14Donovan LewisWestminster, MDWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#62Anthony CacceseReading, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#78Bentley Allen IIBowie, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#60Carter SareykaNewark, DEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#51Chandler TelfaireGarner, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#55Dylan StewartBurlington, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 314 lbReturning
#75Noah RosahacJim Thorpe, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#59Patrick MethlieAvondale, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#61Steven DemboskiHillsdale, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#74Tyler BurnhamLong Branch, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#65Wahkeem RomanElizabeth, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#21Viron Ellison Jr.Lewisville, TXRB0.6 pts68% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#88Elijah SessomsDover, DETE0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#1Brandon RehmannBlackwood, NJWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#3Brandon GorhamOdenton, MDDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#44Kaeden SingletonLawrence, PADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#89Nate RayWilmington, DEDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#13Noah MatthewsBridgeville, DEDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#0Q'yaeir PricePaterson, NJDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#49Yamdry HernandezAtlantic City, NJDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning
#53Carson ShockleyJacksonville, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#52Dominick BrognaBayville, NJDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#33Trace Scott IIIOrlando, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#40Scott MooreGirard, KSTE0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#84Ashton NavarreteHawthorne, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#83Calvin ThomasGainesville, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#17Emmanuel DokuWillingboro, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbReturning
#43Luke BrownMarlton, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#80Matthew McKinley-DanielsGainesville, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#13Ty SalazerState College, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 171 lbReturning
#85Jackson WhitacreOceanport, NJTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#86Jaxson BowmanCherry Hill, NJTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#25Azir LeeCamden, NJCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#24Jalen RossJacksonville, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#18Jamarion KolagbodiFort Wayne, INCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#6Kshawn Cox Jr.Bridgeville, DECB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#27AJ GrahamMooresville, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#2Kahlil AliPennsauken, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#7KT SeayNorfolk, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#36Nasir EatmonWaldorf, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#16Noah JeffersonHampton, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 194 lbReturning
#6Nick TyreeChester, VAWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 182 lbReturning
#10Blake MatthewsBremen, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#9Colin GallagherMiddletown, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#37Dillon GriffithNewark, DELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#35Gavin MoulBethel Park, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 227 lbReturning
#15Gevaris LassiterUpper Marlboro, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#11Jawarren CorbinWildwood, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#46Julius PuryearStuart, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#26Greg SpillerAshburn, VARB0.4 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#25Jared PorterHarrisburg, PARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 187 lbReturning
#39Josh CupittReading, PAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#49Maddox SillsBenson, NCLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#16Braden StreeterFranklin, TNQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#11EJ Archield Jr.Tampa, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#2Riley TrujilloSt. Johns, FLQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#5Da'Wain LoftonFort Worth, TXWR0.3 pts26% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#71Brandon TruszkowskiHatfield, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#63Collier BookDauphin, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#79Jaiden EdwardsFredericksburg, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#52Miles MuldrowFranklin, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#91Christian CorbinNewport News, VADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 292 lbNew / unverified
#90Noah FrazierSpring Hill, FLDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#89Brandon DeAngeloPhiladelphia, PAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#87Carson GriffinLynn Haven, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#81Jake BlumNorthfield, NJWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#10Tae'Sean RobinsonTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#41David OravetzGreenwich, NJTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#15Rowen WalshAnnapolis, MDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#38Derrick Phillips Jr.Hainesport, NJCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#30Jaylen MackDouglasville, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#23Shawn Church Jr.Virginia Beach, VACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#21Trent GummerOrlando, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#34Walter AndersonPhiladelphia, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 159 lbNew / unverified
#5Dannell Jester Jr.Meigs, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#22Dorian RutledgeChester, PAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#19Kevin MooreCoram, NYS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#4Demarco DanielsHawthorne, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#57Gehret GentzyelYork, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#32Joseph ZamotMillville, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#54Tysean Milligan Jr.Dover, DELB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#42Wayne Cunningham Jr.Clearwater, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#19Sean SutherlandPotomac Falls, VAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 184 lbNew / unverified
#7Tyler BellEast Rutherford, NJQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#28Nakeem PowellSicklerville, NJRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#34Naseem TentionBaltimore, MDRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#30Reginald Lea IINewark, DERB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#92Kason MullisBartow, FLPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#99Austin LaBellmanMaitland, FLP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#45Luke EpsteinSt. Charles, ILLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1MerrimackNon-conference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 16–36 · 87% win
HomeSep 37:00 PM EDT · model ↗2VanderbiltNon-conference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 19–38 · 15% win
AwaySep 124:15 PM EDT · model ↗3
Coastal CarolinaNon-conference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeSep 1911:30 AM EDT · model ↗4
VirginiaNon-conference · Scott Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 21% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
LibertyConference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 28–26 · 45% win
HomeOct 27:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Middle TennesseeConference · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 51% win
AwayOct 137:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
Missouri StateConference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 26–28 · 55% win
HomeOct 207:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Western KentuckyConference · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 33% win
AwayOct 277:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
Kennesaw StateConference · Fifth Third Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 42% win
AwayNov 73:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Florida InternationalConference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeNov 143:00 PM EST · model ↗12New Mexico StateConference · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 50% win
AwayNov 213:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Jacksonville StateConference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 47% win
HomeNov 283:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Delaware diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Delaware to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?