The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
Southern Miss opens No. 102 nationally and No. 6 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.6 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.9 regular-season wins.
Southern Miss begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 97 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Southern Miss beats its 4.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBlake Anderson23–18 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger38 in · 28 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#8AJ LittleMacon, MSWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Chattanooga
#1Mario SandersMinneapolis, MNWR0.6 pts40% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#26Brandon HoodConyers, GARB0.5 pts64% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Massachusetts
#70Braden CainHouston, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Texas Southern
#78Christian YoungFredericksburg, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom Emory & Henry
#50Joe RoundsSuffolk, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Union
#53Toby MealerEugene, OROL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech
#11A'mari WilsonJacksonville, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#15Jeffery Rush Jr.Pascagoula, MSDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#95Josh JohnsonNew Orleans, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Nicholls
#98Kei'shaun MashburnQuincy, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Allen University
#41Will SmithChoctaw, OKDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#52Xavier McIverCheraw, SCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#9Jaylen HimesStatesville, NCWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Wingate
#7Kaden SaundersColumbus, OHWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#88Jeremiah Beck Jr.Fontana, CATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 237 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#81Preston KilgoreTerrell, TXTE0.4 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom East Texas A&M
#26Baron TaylorSacramento, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Southern Utah
#1Champ LewisNew Orleans, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa
#23Hiroshi CarrStafford, VADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Morgan State
#16Jonah MartinezOrange County, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom TCU
#14Jordan PrideBlountstown, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#3Jyaire BrownNew Orleans, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#28Kelby HamptonPhiladelphia, PADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom New Hampshire
#22Kobi AlbertBirmingham, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#20Kolby PeavyMonroeville, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#25Landon SylvieShreveport, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Southeast Missouri State
#12Laquan RobinsonGreenville, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#24Michael Robinson IIIColumbus, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#6Andrew MartinMcdonough, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Stetson
#42Melvin SpriggsLandstuhlLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#6Jamarice WilderSarasota, FLRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#36Dusty ZimmerGold Coast, QLDP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#5Ethan HamptonElburn, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#18Landry LyddyStonewall, LAQB5.4 pts94% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbReturning
#11Davis DaltonMadison, MSWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbReturning
#62Aloali'i MauiPago PagoOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbReturning
#64Camden MyersIrmo, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#77Chase MalamalaPalm Beach Gardens, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 297 lbReturning
#56Greg NunneryMccomb, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#73Hayden BrealMobile, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 281 lbReturning
#71Jahmir DavisCincinnati, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 301 lbReturning
#76Larry EdwardsBelzoni, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#79Liam CassidyPortland, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#74Luke RogersBrandon, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#92David GriffinNew Orleans, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 299 lbReturning
#16Jameer LewisMccomb, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#57Jeramie PoseyOak Grove, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 266 lbReturning
#31Zachariah KeithAtlanta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 280 lbReturning
#2Robert BriggsBellville, TXRB0.5 pts59% role · 76% conf.5′7″ · 183 lbReturning
#83Dillon RowleyColumbia, MSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 174 lbReturning
#23Trey HorneColumbia, SCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#87Caston BrownOak Grove, MSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbReturning
#82Connor GoodingGilbert, SCTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#8Ishmael IbraheemDallas, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 178 lbReturning
#19Malakai MurphyStarke, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#18MaLik CaswellMidway, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#47Cannon McClainHattiesburg, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 184 lbReturning
#19Cace ReedHammond, LAWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbReturning
#13Grant PageBoulder, COWR0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#33Avery SledgeHattiesburg, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#13Mathis HaygoodFayetteville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#25Josiah BastenBonduel, WIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#20Robert HendersonGriffin, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#40Creighton WilbanksMandeville, LAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 176 lbReturning
#30Andrew TateMadden, MSLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 203 lbReturning
#48Colin KapilovicTuscaloosa, ALLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#46Luke BeardAckerman, MSLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbReturning
#96Reed HarradineBirmingham, ALPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#12John WhiteWest, MSQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#56Brayden WarnerBrandon, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 311 lbNew / unverified
#75Casey Jean-BaptisteWest Palm Beach, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#54Dante DevineOrlando, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#68Grant KitchensLouisville, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 329 lbNew / unverified
#61Kendrick WatkinsEdwards, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#72Will BurgessBirmingham, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#55Zerian HudsonBrookhaven, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 334 lbNew / unverified
#97Ari SlocumFarmerville, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#88Darrell GrossMadison, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 292 lbNew / unverified
#90JR StegallFort Worth, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 326 lbNew / unverified
#99Kam'ron HoyteJacksonville, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#7Kameron CyprienLafayette, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#43KJ WashingtonD'Iberville, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#5Nasim CairoEdwardsville, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#17Ramon PernasTomball, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 237 lbNew / unverified
#94Talik ParkmanSumrall, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#93Travis BendolphMobile, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#0Eelijah SingletonTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#86Israel LeamonGreer, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#80King David AboyaMilton, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#3MJ JohnsonEnterprise, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#38Nehemiah TaylorHattiesburg, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#84Broderick PetersHammond, LATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#89Drew BilderbackColumbia, MSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#85Javery MayberryChandler, AZTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#29Jeremiah DillonTylertown, MSCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#37Aidan HorneColumbia, SCS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#27Chauncey Davis Jr.Suwanee, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#39Johnnie EvansHattiesburg, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#21Sammy Anderson Jr.Dayton, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#30Trevor WintonOlive Branch, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#49BJ MitchellHattiesburg, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#0Caleb TriplettD'Iberville, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#34Marrio Williams Jr.Reno, NVLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#51Ricky HardingBushnell, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#2Tyler LassiterRaleigh, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#35Wesley EdisonLawrence, KSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#15Hugh PriceNashville, TNQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′6″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#16Maddox McCroryCabot, ARQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#22Jaylen FosterGreenwood, SCRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#27John FordBirmingham, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#14Steven RobinsonBaltimore, MDRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Alcorn StateNon-conference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 15–37 · 89% win
HomeSep 55:00 PM EDT · model ↗2AuburnNon-conference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 17–33 · 19% win
AwaySep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
UConnNon-conference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 51% win
HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
TulaneNon-conference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 31% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
TroyConference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 25–26 · 48% win
AwayOct 68:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Arkansas StateConference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 60% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
LouisianaConference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 56% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
UL MonroeConference · Malone Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 59% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
James MadisonConference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 28–22 · 36% win
HomeNov 58:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Louisiana TechConference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 44% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
South AlabamaConference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Old DominionConference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 32% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Southern Miss diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Southern Miss to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?