The 2026 outlook
Can this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?
Missouri State opens No. 116 nationally and No. 6 of 10 in the CUSA. The 4M baseline rates the roster 10.9 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.2 regular-season wins.
Missouri State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 88 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Missouri State beats its 4.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachCasey Woods0–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Ryan Beard
Portal ledger19 in · 11 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#9Skyler LocklearClayton, NCQB4.3 pts93% starter · 76% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#6Mekhi MillerOverland Park, KSWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa
#72Isaiah VillanuevaKaty, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Jackson State
#71King LargeBellflower, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 316 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#70William Dixon IIINorth Chesterfield, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom VMI
#49Dylan BrooksRoanoke, ALDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#10Jalile ElliottGreensboro, NCDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Barton
#92Josh LukusaCincinnati, OHDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Miami (OH)
#5Kellen LindstromSpringfield, MODE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#44Malachi MadisonChester, VADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Massachusetts
#99Markell ChapmanSumter, SCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 303 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#13Isaiah MyersCincinnati, OHWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 173 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#87Witt EdwardsFairfax, OKWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#8Joel KpassouCleveland, OHCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Duquesne
#38Stratton ShufeltRio Rancho, NMLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#1Breezy DubarAnna, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Boise State
#50Tim ColemanMadison, ALLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom UVA Wise
#2Henry Belin IVNew York, NYQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#0Jmariyae RobinsonCocoa, FLWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbReturning
#11Makai CopeLos Angeles, CAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#88Jeron AskrenWichita, KSTE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#8Isaiah McMorrisOmaha, NEWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#85Dillon HippScottsdale, AZTE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbReturning
#69Armend UjkashiDes Plaines, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 265 lbReturning
#67Ben LiedtkeNorwalk, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#78Brayden ThompsonEagle, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 320 lbReturning
#75Logan ScrivnerSaint Charles, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#66Makhete GueyeBradenton, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#54Matthew GreeneCentennial, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbReturning
#73Myles EwellOverland Park, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#55Ryan MitchellSt. Louis, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#79Stephen MeitzEureka, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#94Breylon McCullerRaleigh, NCDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#30Caden WiestReeds Spring, MODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#22Grayson CutchlowColumbia, MODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#56Jayden McGeeSt. Louis, MODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#57Gilles TchioMilton, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#11Tim Brantley Jr.Allen, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 275 lbReturning
#22Ramone Green Jr.Nixa, MORB0.6 pts59% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#40Connor LairWest Plains, MORB0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#81AJ Bell Jr.Boynton Beach, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 160 lbReturning
#83Amare WhetsellPembroke Pines, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#84Antonio RobinsonMelissa, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbReturning
#82Brycen DorseySt. Louis, MOWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbReturning
#34Jordan ManuelRichmond, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#18Sean ReeseAtlanta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#86James RexroatRepublic, MOTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#17Brendon McQueenTulsa, OKWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#25Camron WilliamsBlytheville, ARCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#26Darryon TaylorMemphis, TNCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#20Floyd WilliamsBlytheville, ARCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#23Gionni McBrideNorth Kansas City, MOCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbReturning
#6Navonn BarrettTrenton, NJCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#2Antonio SmithMiami, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 197 lbReturning
#29Christian FordMcKinney, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#27Devin RutherfordBartlett, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#9Dylan DixsonHouston, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#13Haydon CastonHouston, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbReturning
#16J.J. O'NealRogersville, MOS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#28Joseph ArnoldOverland Park, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbReturning
#3Khalil AndersonAtlanta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#35Austin YelderMontgomery, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 223 lbReturning
#24Caleb OlabodeArlington, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#31Cooper RoySpringfield, MOLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#32Hieko MaloneNewton, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#0Jared LloydDaytona Beach, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#21Jashawn CooperMontgomery, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#15Martavis BlackmonOxford, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#3Iverson YoungWaxahachie, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#21Josh JoynerOxnard, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbReturning
#10King DavisMiami, FLRB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#37Josh DealO' Fallon, MOPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#25Stewart McDonaldRogersville, MOP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#47Andrew KallasRiverside, ILLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 227 lbReturning
#36Yousef ObeidDearborn, MIPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#15Eian FinkleyBushnell, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#7Elijah LeonardLee's Summit, MOQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#51Chase MideauDouglasville, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#74Julius DumasCarrollton, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#76Santiago CastilloSt. Louis, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#77Sebastian EspinozaMount Washington, KYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#96Blessing IgbinedionVeronaDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 283 lbNew / unverified
#59Maurice Jones Jr.Orlando, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#90Brandon HightowerDallas, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#98Cam GrayArlington, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#97Joshua DavisNatchez, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#52Kaden JonesYukon, OKDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#42Devin StaleyBlue Springs, MOWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#89Torrin TeagueDallas, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#46Cash PomeroyMarionville, MOTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#80Michael Osei-BonsuBolingbrook, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#12Joel BoamahNewark, NJCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#7Malik GanawayTrenton, TNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#33Anthony MattisonMiami Gardens, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#14Jerrick MartinGlasgow, KYS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#37Josiah TurnerDallas, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#39Rory ButlerWest Palm Beach, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#19Xavian MichelNaples, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#41Deion ThomasAtlanta, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#48Jedrick Russell Jr.Grand Prairie, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#45Royal WeberSnellville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
#12Brett OttensmeyerBallwin, MOQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#43Amar'e JohnsonOrlando, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#65Malakai LewisWebster Groves, MOLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Texas A&MNon-conference · Kyle Field · 4M 15–39 · 9% win
AwaySep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
LindenwoodNon-conference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 19–35 · 81% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3MarshallNon-conference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 28–25 · 45% win
HomeSep 196:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
SMUNon-conference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 18–35 · 17% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Western KentuckyConference · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 37% win
AwayOct 87:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Kennesaw StateConference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 27–27 · 51% win
HomeOct 147:30 PM EDT · model ↗8
DelawareConference · Delaware Stadium · 4M 26–28 · 45% win
AwayOct 207:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Sam HoustonConference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 22–31 · 68% win
HomeOct 278:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
Florida InternationalConference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 48% win
AwayNov 74:00 PM EST · model ↗11New Mexico StateConference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 23–28 · 61% win
HomeNov 143:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Jacksonville StateConference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 38% win
AwayNov 212:00 PM EST · model ↗13
LibertyConference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 28–26 · 47% win
HomeNov 282:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Missouri State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Missouri State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?