The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Bowling Green opens No. 123 nationally and No. 7 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 13.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.6 regular-season wins.
Bowling Green begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 103 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Bowling Green beats its 4.6-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachEddie George4–8 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 27 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#4Ke'Marion BaldwinSt. Pauls, NCRB0.8 pts82% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Charleston Southern
#6Isaiah DawsonGarner, NCWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Richmond
#9Nick SowellIrmo, SCWR0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina State
#56John Baker IVClinton Township, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#4Kade KostusRockford, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Central Michigan
#88Selah BrownLouisville, KYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#55Timothy Taylor Jr.Starke, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State
#18Nick SawyerHarvest, ALCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Charleston Southern
#41Drey BraxtonHighland Springs, VADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina Central
#14JayT JacksonColumbus, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 179 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech
#7Mike Wright IIIPalm Beach Gardens, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#50Jonathan GoinsPine Bluff, ARLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Alabama A&M
#6Sanders EllisNashville, TNLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Purdue
#30Ryan KingstonSouth Bend, INP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Southeast Missouri State
#16Austin NovosadDripping Springs, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#10Hunter NajmAliso Viejo, CAQB4.2 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Austyn DendyPine Bluff, ARRB0.8 pts94% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#11Austin ClayCleveland, OHWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#0Jeremiah ScobyDickinson, TXTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 218 lbReturning
#70Alex HarrisCleveland, OHOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#58Ethan KraatzSaginaw, MIOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#50Vincent GiordanoWest Chester, OHOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#66Zane PanchulaRockford, MIOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#54Brody BolynUniondale, INC0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#18Winn SharpWhitehouse, OHWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbReturning
#5Eriq GeorgeNashville, TNDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#17Jaimion OlversonCincinnati, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#23Myles BradleyMansfield, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#48Quentin LewisSnellville, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#99Brendon RiceFarmington Hills, MIDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbReturning
#57Dayln WhiteLewisville, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#54Dior GarnerCanton, OHDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#5Brennan RidleyRichmond, VAWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 177 lbReturning
#83Pierce St. GemeSan Francisco, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 186 lbReturning
#3Trey JohnsonFrankfort, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#88Carsen MelvinWestfield, INTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#80Ocean BrabbsAnn Arbor, MITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbReturning
#85Reece LittleFindlay, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#37Garrison BlairCarrollton, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#2JoJo JohnsonMerrillville, INCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#26Josira AndrewsBrooklyn, NYCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#32Rico GarciaTampa, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#15D'kyah BanksAtlanta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 185 lbReturning
#40DeVenchi Arnold IIDistrict Heights, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#19Jahai JohnsonPiscataway, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#0Kal-El PascalMiami, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#9Preston EstoEstaMason, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#89Blane CleaverBerwick, PATE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#8Eli Jacon-DuffyPleasant Plain, OHTE0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#44AJ OdomOakman, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#10Andrew Hines IIIAlpharetta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#35Cashmire LewisHartford, CTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#3Dorian PringleMassillon, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#39Henry ReifschneiderWaynesville, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#36Jabari MitchellReynoldsburg, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#2Nakai AmachreeHaslett, MIRB0.4 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#78Alexis SanchezGlendale, AZG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 335 lbReturning
#73Caden CampbellRochester, MIG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#40Ethan WarnerBowling Green, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 192 lbReturning
#77James Thomas Jr.Fairfield, OHG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#53Masyn ZahurskyBerea, OHG0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#12Travis KennerTemperance, MIPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 178 lbReturning
#27Treyton McKeeLancaster, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbReturning
#56Quillan JimenezSickles, FLLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#44Leo KempPaso Robles, CAFB0.3 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 239 lbReturning
#65Gabe FunkXenia, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#59John KolarchickTroy, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#75Maddux MurphySaint Joseph, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#61Pete PendergestHamilton, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#76Theo AndallLondonOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#71Travis RobertsonFarmington Hills, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#95Jonathan HendrixMason, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#43MJ DillardBuford, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#90Bryce BrewsterCincinnati, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#96Cameron SimmonsSugar Hill, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#52Elijah Durham-SmithPickerington, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#58Kore ThomasForney, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#28Samuel DossousMassillon, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#93Trent MerrellElyria, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#25Cade BrooksPortland, TNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#23Dom WoodsPerrysburg, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#19Joseph SaffoldCleveland, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#14Pauly SadlerCleveland, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#87Reddik PillarelliHolland, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#86Derron Gray Jr.Columbus, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#47Kentrell WhiteAtlanta, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#82Maddox HunstadSaint Augustine, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#84Trent TaylorPerry, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#11Armhan HaleAkron, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbNew / unverified
#21Cedarius ChristianDundee, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#13Chris Newell Jr.Cleveland, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#22Julian HoltJacksonville, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#30Caden CarterNorton, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#20Darian HawkinsCulver City, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 217 lbNew / unverified
#45Kingston SealsMaple Heights, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#13Caleb MoyerWapakoneta, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#15Dylan DreaskyLinden, MIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#12Jarin MockPickerington, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#17Jay KastantinNeedham, MAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#21Carson LovettDetroit, MIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#20Marceles CareyDeLand, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#33Tristin BlackmonPrattville, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#95Carlos GuerraBrentwood, TNPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#97Drew RosickArmada, MIPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#91Alex JenkinsFishers, INP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#52Quinn ForsytheManhattan, ILLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Tarleton StateNon-conference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 47% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2NebraskaNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 18–33 · 21% win
AwaySep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
Iowa StateNon-conference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 18–32 · 22% win
AwaySep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
South FloridaNon-conference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 31–20 · 27% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Miami (OH)Conference · Yager Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 32% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Sacramento StateConference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 59% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Ball StateConference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 66% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
BuffaloConference · UB Stadium · 4M 24–25 · 48% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
Western MichiganConference · Waldo Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 28% win
AwayOct 3112:00 PM EDT · model ↗11
Kent StateConference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 58% win
HomeNov 107:00 PM EST · model ↗12
ToledoConference · Glass Bowl · 4M 19–30 · 27% win
AwayNov 207:30 PM EST · model ↗13
MassachusettsConference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 75% win
HomeNov 2812:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Bowling Green diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Bowling Green to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?