Texas A&M 2026 Preview — No. 10 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?

Texas A&M opens No. 9 nationally and No. 3 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 18.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7.1 regular-season wins.

Texas A&M has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.

The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.

The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 8 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Texas A&M can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 7.1-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachMike Elko35–16 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger19 in · 21 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback67

Offensive line51

Receivers67

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InIsaiah HortonWR · from Alabama · 4★

InRickey Gibson IIICB · from Tennessee · 4★

InWilkin FormbyOT · from Alabama · 4★

InAnto SakaEDGE · from Northwestern · 4★

InCJ MimsDL · from North Carolina · 3★

InTawfiq ByardS · from Colorado · 3★

InAngelo McCullomDL · from Illinois · 3★

InTyree AdamsOT · from LSU · 3★

InCoen EcholsIOL · from LSU · 3★

InRay ConeyLB · from Tulsa · 3★

InRichie AndersonTE · from Fresno State · 3★

InRyan HendersonEDGE · from San Diego State · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBMarcel Reed5.1 pts94% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

WRMario Craver0.9 pts62% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRTK Norman0.8 pts60% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRAshton Bethel-Roman0.7 pts52% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

TERichie Anderson0.7 pts49% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WRIsaiah Horton0.7 pts49% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#84Richie AndersonTualatin, ORTE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Fresno State

#7Isaiah HortonNashville, TNWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Alabama

#87Houston ThomasCollege Station, TXTE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom UTSA

#78Coen EcholsKaty, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom LSU

#76Trovon BaughAtlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina

#71Tyree AdamsMarrero, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom LSU

#75Wilkin FormbyTuscaloosa, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Alabama

#14Anto SakaBaltimore, MDDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Northwestern

#17Ryan HendersonLas Vegas, NVDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State

#94Angelo McCullomPickerington, OHDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Illinois

#11Brandon Davis-SwainDetroit, MIDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Colorado

#92CJ MimsNew Bern, NCDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina

#9Rickey Gibson IIITrussville, ALCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee

#4Tawfiq ByardHyattsville, MDS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Colorado

#21Ray ConeyFairfield, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa

#30TJ SmithLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Houston Christian

#24David OlanoNaperville, ILPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Illinois

#31Shea FreibaumScottsdale, AZLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State

#10Marcel ReedNashville, TNQB5.1 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning

#1Mario CraverBirmingham, ALWR0.9 pts62% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning

#18TK NormanMontgomery, ALWR0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbReturning

#8Ashton Bethel-RomanMissouri City, TXWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#6Terry BusseyTimpson, TXWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning

#4Rueben Owens IIEl Campo, TXRB0.6 pts70% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning

#73Ashton FunkKaty, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 322 lbReturning

#52Blake IvyLeague City, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 336 lbReturning

#50Isendre AhfuaSeattle, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 342 lbReturning

#72Joshua MosesHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 359 lbReturning

#79Lamont RogersMesquite, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 337 lbReturning

#62Marcus GarciaDenton, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 304 lbReturning

#54Mark Nabou Jr.Lynnwood, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning

#56Nelson McGuireDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 319 lbReturning

#70Robert BourdonCollierville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 318 lbReturning

#77Tyler ThomasDickinson, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 329 lbReturning

#11Kelshaun JohnsonHitchcock, TXWR0.6 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 168 lbReturning

#98Jesse ChukwuCypress, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning

#42Kendall JacksonGainesville, FLDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 256 lbReturning

#10Marco JonesDublin, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 258 lbReturning

#12Nana Boadi-OwusuArlington, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 246 lbReturning

#15Sam M'PembaOlivette, MODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 252 lbReturning

#18T.J. SearcyThomaston, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning

#59Chace SimsHouston, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 294 lbReturning

#5DJ HicksKaty, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning

#88DJ SandersBellville, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning

#99Landon RinkCypress, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 294 lbReturning

#93Nathan MabonArlington, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 292 lbReturning

#85Chase BurtonDallas, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning

#80Jerome MylesDraper, UTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning

#82Jonah WilsonHouston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 211 lbReturning

#89Kade StewartTemple, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning

#38Whitaker WilliamsFrisco, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 192 lbReturning

#83Will HargettCollege Station, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning

#43Carter BraughAustin, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 246 lbReturning

#9Kiotti ArmstrongJasper, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbReturning

#81Luke BradenStratford, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning

#88Micah RileyOmaha, NETE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 257 lbReturning

#20Adonyss CurrieLancaster, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 174 lbReturning

#13Deyjhon PettawayKaty, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbReturning

#2Dezz RicksNorfolk, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbReturning

#16Jamar Beal-GoinesGoodyear, AZCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning

#8Jordan ShawLos Angeles, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbReturning

#6Julio HumphreyGalveston, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#86Ryan BurtinBryan, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 170 lbReturning

#7Dalton BrooksShiner, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning

#26Layne GerkeHallettsville, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 193 lbReturning

#3Marcus RatcliffeChula Vista, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbReturning

#13Myles DavisConverse, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbReturning

#37Peyton GayPanama City, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 206 lbReturning

#22Tom Tom Johnson Jr.Bushnell, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbReturning

#39Adam GrahamKingwood, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#19Bravion RogersLa Grange, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning

#1Bryce AndersonBeaumont, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbReturning

#27Daymion SanfordKaty, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#43Jeremiah SearcyThomaston, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning

#54Jordan LockhartRedlands, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 229 lbReturning

#31Kelvion RigginsForney, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning

#34Kyle GarvisHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 223 lbReturning

#0Noah MikhailLa Verne, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 223 lbReturning

#45Tommy ColliganSan Antonio, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning

#2Jamarion MorrowMemphis, TNRB0.4 pts55% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning

#24Ramarian TillmanRockford, ILRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbReturning

#5Tiger Riden Jr.Desoto, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 212 lbReturning

#83Colton ChmelarCollege Station, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning

#95Alex AbbottMontgomery, TXP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#38Jared WhiteSouthlake, TXP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning

#37Tyler WhiteSouthlake, TXP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning

#42Boomer GrahamHouston, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbReturning

#40Gray EvansHouston, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 223 lbReturning

#13Brady HartCocoa, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbReturning

#14Eli MorcosMontgomery, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#19Paxton LandAustin, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning

#65Avery MorchoHouston, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 284 lbNew / unverified

#55Hunter McKinneyMontgomery, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 307 lbNew / unverified

#64Sam RoseboroughClearwater, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 289 lbNew / unverified

#74Zaden KrempinProsper, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 266 lbNew / unverified

#16Bryce Perry-WrightAtlanta, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 253 lbNew / unverified

#55Samu MoalaCarson, CADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 247 lbNew / unverified

#22Tristian GivensColumbus, GADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#98Jermaine KinslerOcala, FLDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#3Aaron GregoryAugusta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 177 lbNew / unverified

#81Jayden WarrenRosharon, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbNew / unverified

#17Madden WilliamsIrvine, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbNew / unverified

#20Mike BrownHouston, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbNew / unverified

#15Caleb TafuaLong Beach, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#86Evan JacobsonWaukee, IATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 217 lbNew / unverified

#19KK JohnsonHouston, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 226 lbNew / unverified

#23Brandon ArringtonSan Diego, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#21Vic SingletonToledo, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 164 lbNew / unverified

#28Chance CollinsMansfield, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbNew / unverified

#15Tylan WilsonPascagoula, MSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#24Camren HamielDetroit, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 174 lbNew / unverified

#29Justin EcholsKaty, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#46Qui BeckCarthage, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#33Storm MillerStrongsville, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#25Tamarion WatkinsRock Hill, SCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbNew / unverified

#32Tank KingPort Arthur, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#16Helaman CasugaKona, HIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#22Carsyn BakerFairburn, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#23DeDe MurrayBellville, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#0KJ EdwardsCarthage, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbNew / unverified

#90Asher MurrayShreveport, LAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 176 lbNew / unverified

#96Waylon PetersMontgomery, TXP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 193 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

Missouri StateNon-conference · Kyle Field · 4M 15–39 · 91% win

HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2

Arizona StateNon-conference · Kyle Field · 4M 19–31 · 75% win

HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3

KentuckyConference · Kyle Field · 4M 18–32 · 78% win

HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4

LSUConference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 26–24 · 55% win

AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5

ArkansasConference · Kyle Field · 4M 21–35 · 78% win

HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6

MissouriConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 54% win

AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7

The CitadelNon-conference · Kyle Field · 4M 7–46 · 98% win

HomeOct 171:00 PM EDT · model ↗8

AlabamaConference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 49% win

AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10

South CarolinaConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 62% win

AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11

TennesseeConference · Kyle Field · 4M 24–30 · 62% win

HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

OklahomaConference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 25–24 · 50% win

AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13

TexasConference · Kyle Field · 4M 25–27 · 56% win

HomeNov 277:30 PM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case5 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint7 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case9 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Texas A&M diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.

Pass or fade when

A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.

Watch first

Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.

Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?