Ole Miss 2026 Preview — No. 9 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

How much of the elite offensive identity survives the coaching transition from Lane Kiffin?

Ole Miss opens No. 12 nationally and No. 5 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 15.6 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.5 regular-season wins.

Ole Miss has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.

Chambliss and 1,567-yard back Kewan Lacy keep the backfield dangerous. Golding and new coordinator John David Baker inherit real firepower, but replacing the system's creator adds meaningful preseason volatility.

The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 4 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Ole Miss can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 6.5-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.

Pressure pointTrinidad Chambliss · QB2025: 13–2

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachPete Golding2–1 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger28 in · 27 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback37

Offensive line51

Receivers52

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InDarrell Gill Jr.WR · from Syracuse · 4★

InCarius CurneOT · from LSU · 4★

InDeuce KnightQB · from Auburn · 4★

InJay CrawfordCB · from Auburn · 4★

InBlake PurchaseEDGE · from Oregon · 4★

InEdwin JosephS · from Florida State · 4★

InJordan RenaudEDGE · from Alabama · 4★

InMichai BoireauDL · from Florida · 4★

InLuke FerrelliLB · from California · 4★

InHoratio FieldsWR · from Auburn · 4★

InMakhi FrazierRB · from Michigan State · 3★

InJohntay Cook IIWR · from Syracuse · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBDeuce Knight3.0 pts50% starter · usage + PPA + portal role + QB starter probability

QBTrinidad Chambliss2.5 pts47% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

RBJoshua Dye0.9 pts88% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

RBKewan Lacy0.9 pts94% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

WRJohntay Cook II0.8 pts55% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WRDeuce Alexander0.7 pts56% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#2Deuce KnightLucedale, MSQB3.0 pts50% starter · 64% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Auburn

#28Joshua DyeGilbert, AZRB0.9 pts88% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Southern Utah

#0Johntay Cook IIDesoto, TXWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse

#15Darrell Gill Jr.Atascocita, TXWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse

#11Horatio FieldsDouglasville, GAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Auburn

#25Makhi FrazierMcKinney, TXRB0.6 pts78% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State

#22Cameron MillerCamden, NJWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky

#85Isaiah SpencerFlora, MSWR0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech

#57Carius CurneHughes, AROL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom LSU

#77Enoch WangoyManchesterOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 350 lbTransfer infrom Florida

#61Tommy Kinsler IVOcala, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 350 lbTransfer infrom Miami

#50Troy EverettRoanoke, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma

#3Blake PurchaseGreen Valley Ranch, CODE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Oregon

#17Jonathan MaldonadoMonrovia, CADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Nevada

#1Jordan RenaudSarasota, FLDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Alabama

#9Jehiem OatisColumbia, MSDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 340 lbTransfer infrom Colorado

#88Michai BoireauAtlanta, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 355 lbTransfer infrom Florida

#86Brady PrieskornLake Orion, MITE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Michigan

#14Edwin JosephTamarac, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Florida State

#6Joenel AgueroLynn, MAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Georgia

#7Sharif DensonJacksonville, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Florida

#11Keaton ThomasJacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Baylor

#12Luke FerrelliSan Diego, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom California

#49Tah'j ButlerNew Orleans, LALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech

#44Tony MitchellAlabaster, ALLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State

#26JT LindseyAlexandria, LARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom LSU

#14Walker HowardLafayette, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana

#6Trinidad ChamblissGrand Rapids, MIQB2.5 pts47% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning

#5Kewan LacyDallas, TXRB0.9 pts94% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning

#1Deuce AlexanderDouglasville, GAWR0.7 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning

#9Luke HaszBixby, OKTE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning

#4Caleb OdomCarrollton, GATE0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning

#62Brycen SandersChattanooga, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning

#65Connor HowesSaint Cloud, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning

#52Cooper JohnsonLincoln, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbReturning

#51Delano TownsendFlint, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning

#69Joe KouryMadison, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 280 lbReturning

#76John Wayne OliverNashville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning

#56Mason WaddleTupelo, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 250 lbReturning

#75Patrick KutasMemphis, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning

#55Terez DavisHyattsville, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning

#53Trey NightingaleWyckoff, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 265 lbReturning

#55Cam ClarkMedina, TNDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning

#5Kam FranklinLake Cormorant, MSDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning

#45Talib GrahamDaphne, ALDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 250 lbReturning

#95Andrew MaddoxHattiesburg, MSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning

#96Jamarious BrownMoss Point, MSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbReturning

#97Kamron BeaversBay Springs, MSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#52Will EcholesHouston, MSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning

#47Anthony AguirreSpokane, WAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning

#3Caleb CunninghamWeir, MSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning

#84Dillon AlfredGautier, MSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning

#89Dylan DavisFrisco, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#12Izaiah HartrupO' Fallon, MOWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning

#83Levi BlountOxford, MSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#81Samari ReedMargate, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#7Traylon RayTallahassee, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning

#80Hayden BradleyBuford, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning

#42Jack HarperOxford, MSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning

#87Wyatt SmalleyMilton, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning

#8Antonio KiteAnniston, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#13Cedrick BeaversTaylorsville, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning

#28Dante CoreFort Walton Beach, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning

#43Isreal SolomonDallas, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning

#2Jaylon BraxtonFrisco, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#41John Ross AshleyVestavia Hills, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning

#25Maison DunnTupelo, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning

#40Micah StallworthRidgeland, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#27Pat BroomfieldClarksdale, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbReturning

#21Tavoy FeaginTampa, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning

#24Andy JaffeTampa, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#20Anthony Robinson IIISaint Rose, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#37Cortez ThomasLexington, MSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#36Keon YoungBartow, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#31Ladarian ClardyPensacola, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#19MJ PrestonPetersburg, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning

#29Nick CullDonalsonville, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning

#42Bryson WaltersFulton, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning

#53Ford BeekerTuscaloosa, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning

#23Jarcoby HopsonTunica, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning

#48Mark Trigg Jr.Roswell, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#22Raymond CollinsGulfport, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning

#4Suntarine PerkinsRaleigh, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning

#17Lucas CarneiroCornelius, NCPK0.4 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#33Shekai Mills-KnightMontreal, PQRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning

#33Oscar BirdSydney, NSWP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning

#44Caleb BlankenshipAshdown, ARLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning

#83Sean JudgeAttleboro, MALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning

#8AJ MaddoxHattiesburg, MSQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#16George HamsleyMemphis, TNQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning

#16Maealiuaki SmithSacramento, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning

#82Michael SmithSavannah, GATE0.3 pts23% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#71Emanuel FaulknerNew Albany, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbNew / unverified

#70Jalan ChapmanNew Orleans, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#99Carmelow ReedChicago, ILDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#15Landon BarnesBaton Rouge, LADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#54Tre EllisGallman, MSDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#90Jayden CurtisPerkinston, MSDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#88Jase MathewsLeakesville, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#16Dorian BarneyCarrollton, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#34Iverson McCoyTupelo, MSCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#0Jalyn CrawfordAtlanta, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#32Victor Lincoln Jr.Lancaster, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#35Craig TuttChristiana, TNS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#39Gerald Lacy Jr.Lancaster, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#26Ant Davis Jr.Decatur, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#30JaMichael GarrettBaton Rouge, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#13Jack PattersonMarion, ARQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#19Rees WiseAustin, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#35Damarius YatesDe Kalb, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#36Ja'Michael JonesMontgomery, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#47Stephon WeiseChandler, AZP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

LouisvilleNon-conference · Nissan Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 58% win

NeutralSep 67:30 PM EDT · model ↗2

CharlotteNon-conference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 12–40 · 94% win

HomeSep 127:45 PM EDT · model ↗3

LSUConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 61% win

HomeSep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4

FloridaConference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 56% win

AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6

VanderbiltConference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 29–28 · 53% win

AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7

MissouriConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 61% win

HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8

TexasConference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 41% win

AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9

AuburnConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 64% win

HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10

GeorgiaConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 28–26 · 45% win

HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11

OklahomaConference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 24–26 · 46% win

AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

WoffordNon-conference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 10–44 · 97% win

HomeNov 2112:00 PM EST · model ↗13

Mississippi StateConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 20–33 · 75% win

HomeNov 2712:00 PM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case4 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint7 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case9 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Ole Miss diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.

Pass or fade when

A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.

Watch first

Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.

Season-defining questionHow much of the elite offensive identity survives the coaching transition from Lane Kiffin?