The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
Memphis opens No. 74 nationally and No. 6 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 1.8 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.8 regular-season wins.
Memphis profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 79 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Memphis beats its 5.8-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachCharles Huff39–25 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Reggie Howard
Portal ledger51 in · 47 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Air NolandCollege Park, GAQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#9Denzel GardnerWaldorf, MDQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#2Marcus StokesSaint Augustine, FLQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom West Florida
#1Tychaun ChapmanVirginia Beach, VAWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#0Hunter TiptonTimpson, TXTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 241 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#11Jermane HayesOrange City, FLWR0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#4Terrell Timmons Jr.Greensboro, NCWR0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#59Aaron KarasArvada, COOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#77Brian GrantFort Walton Beach, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 318 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#66Carde SmithMobile, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#50Koby KeenumFlorence, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#73Phillip GrayNashville, TNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Richmond
#78Riley McGeheeNew Hope, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State
#75Skyler GrantFredericksburg, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#71Xavier AllenSilver Spring, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 299 lbTransfer infrom Bucknell
#28Manny CoveyStarke, FLRB0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#7Dallan HaydenMemphis, TNRB0.5 pts64% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#54Amir Leonard-Jean CharlesBrooklyn, NYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 298 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#35DeAngelo ThompsonMiami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#99Devan LoweKansas City, MODL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 367 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#15Elijah KinslerOradell, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 256 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#95Eric ThomasMiami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 360 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#94J'mari MonetteAlexandria, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 274 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#14J'Mond TappDonaldsonville, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 256 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#93Jabari IshmaelMiami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 264 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#11Jaden McKinneyCollierville, TNDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#4Joseph Head Jr.Lexington, MSDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#10Justin WallaceWest Palm Beach, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina
#56KJ MilesOrange, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 289 lbTransfer infrom Temple
#13Stone ChaneyNovi, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 254 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#18Xavier MilesOrange, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#17Alante BrownChicago, ILWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#5Stonka BurnsideStarkville, MSWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#8Anthony Richard Jr.Lafayette, LACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#7Darius Malcolm Jr.Atlanta, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Wofford
#32Dilan WilliamsonKenosha, WICB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Concordia St. Paul
#1Ellis Ellis Jr.Hendersonville, TNCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Austin Peay
#5Ahmere FosterMiami, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 173 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#6Dylan KingNashville, TNS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#3Dylan SmithLittle Elm, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#0Ian FosterBrundidge, ALS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#13Jemyri DavisFort Worth, TXWR0.4 pts41% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#6Jaylin CarterValdosta, GARB0.4 pts50% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#42Christian ThatcherLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#23Jayden ParrishDelray Beach, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 237 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#22Zach RuffinPhiladelphia, MSLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#30Harrison TuckMt. Crawford, SAP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Alabama State
#34Weston SimmonsMason, OHLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#80Philippe LaforgeChattanooga, TNPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#16Grant TroutmanCollierville, TNQB1.4 pts33% starter · 40% conf.6′6″ · 189 lbReturning
#12Brady KluseAcworth, GAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#58Bryce VaughnNettleton, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 278 lbReturning
#79Chance HollomanAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 286 lbReturning
#76Parker MitchellAlabaster, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 299 lbReturning
#97Jacari GatlingHyattsville, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbReturning
#92JaQuentin MadisonAlpharetta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 271 lbReturning
#90Taylor BurtonMemphis, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 283 lbReturning
#8Bryce DorseyHitchcock, TXWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbReturning
#85Jamar JenkinsMemphis, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 166 lbReturning
#82Justice SpannChandler, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 218 lbReturning
#86Jonathan HardingThe Villages, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 241 lbReturning
#2Chauncey Logan Jr.Salem, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#19Ethan WilderGordo, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#26Jaylen LewisJacksonville, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#38Xavier ThompsonCantonment, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 199 lbReturning
#12Beni MwambaElsmere, KYS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#28Charlie HarrellBartlett, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbReturning
#17Chase PinkstonHattiesburg, MSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#36Jamariez RobinsonLilburn, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 167 lbReturning
#27Jordan BellMunford, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 189 lbReturning
#33Donovan MathenaCollierville, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#37Jacory JohnsonHumble, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbReturning
#41Tylon NashMemphis, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbReturning
#43Wolf WalkerAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#33Oliver CastanedaHiram, GAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 181 lbReturning
#10TJ JohnsonChesapeake, VATE0.3 pts23% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#72Eddie AlfordDouglasville, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 323 lbNew / unverified
#70Jabarius OliverLouise, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#56Jordan FoyPleasant Grove, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#55Maarten WoudsmaAmersfoortOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#74Richard ThigpenNashville, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 349 lbNew / unverified
#44Evan HarveyTyrone, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 253 lbNew / unverified
#45Gary GreenFairburn, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#19Jaylin TaylorOxford, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#80Joshua JosephMiami, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#21Zechariah JenkinsLaurel, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#14Aidan O'CallaghanHuntington Beach, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 231 lbNew / unverified
#87Garrett EssnerColumbia, MOTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 236 lbNew / unverified
#81Marshall Smith Jr.Collierville, TNTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#15Gavin OwensRabun Gap, GAQB0.2 pts5% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#31Johnny MoodyBirmingham, ALCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#49Josiah BrownPensacola, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#21Khalil FosterBrundidge, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#24Nick BurdenHampton, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#29Tim SimsHampton, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#39Desmond CoxRed Oak, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#46Elijah FernandezFranklin, TNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#16Jah'Keevi GarnettCharlotte, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#25JJ ClaytonPerry, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#34Kadan SpratlingCarrollton, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#9Mike MontgomerySeattle, WALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 247 lbNew / unverified
#40Trey McDonaldChattanooga, TNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#22Eric PerrySouthaven, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#30Isaiah McGillNashville, TNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#40Tarik AhmetbasicClinton Township, MIPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#32Jake SnyderCumming, GAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#42Ben MajorsHuntersville, NCLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1UNLVNon-conference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 25–30 · 39% win
AwayAug 2910:00 PM EDT · model ↗1
Arkansas StateNon-conference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 68% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Boise StateNon-conference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 36% win
AwaySep 126:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
UT MartinNon-conference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 15–37 · 89% win
HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗5CharlotteConference · Jerry Richardson Stadium · 4M 31–20 · 73% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
UABConference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 70% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
TulaneConference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 40% win
AwayOct 167:30 PM EDT · model ↗8
East CarolinaConference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 51% win
HomeOct 227:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
ArmyConference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗11
South FloridaConference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 33% win
AwayNov 128:00 PM EST · model ↗12
NavyConference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–29 · 43% win
AwayNov 2112:00 PM EST · model ↗13
TempleConference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 67% win
HomeNov 2712:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Memphis diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Memphis to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?