The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Miami (OH) opens No. 86 nationally and No. 3 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 4.3 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.3 regular-season wins.
Miami (OH) profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 128. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachChuck Martin40–28 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger16 in · 14 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#5Rodney NelsonOwings, MDRB0.9 pts88% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Monmouth
#76Brian BeidatschGreenfield, WIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 284 lbTransfer infrom Duquesne
#78Devontae ArmstrongElyria, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 314 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#54Evan MalcoreSun Prairie, WIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#77Shaun ShahuLivonia, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Saginaw Valley State
#52Marcus MooreMassillon, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Purdue
#14Mikah ColemanReynoldsburg, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#8Damarion WittenCleveland, OHWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#4Devin HyattBradenton, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#0Amariyun KnightenHollywood, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 174 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#17Ben MinichWest Chester, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#1Dillon TatumFarmington Hills, MIDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Northwestern
#31Mason EllensGlen Ellyn, ILDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#15Blayne MyrickFairhope, ALLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 226 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#20Cade YacamelliTrafford, PARB0.3 pts47% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 219 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#16David McCombEdmond, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#13Thomas GotkowskiIndianapolis, INQB4.4 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbReturning
#0Keith ReynoldsAdelanto, CAWR0.7 pts62% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 181 lbReturning
#18Braylon IsomSaginaw, MIWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbReturning
#2Brady SimmonsIndianapolis, INWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 173 lbReturning
#61Andrew LowryNewmarket, ONOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbReturning
#55Ayden AnnarinoPickerington, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 298 lbReturning
#73Brandon Lawhorn MooreVandergrift, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 311 lbReturning
#51Eric SmithFairmont, WVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 306 lbReturning
#74Greg Smith Jr.Pittsburgh, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#70Jacob SchorschCincinnati, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#79Jonathan StanglCanton, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 346 lbReturning
#72Kris ManuDublin, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#71Lucas BarnesCanton, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 304 lbReturning
#56Mitchell ButlerMeridian, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#95Aariz TaylorChicago, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning
#49Anthony LudingtonIndianapolis, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 234 lbReturning
#22Bai JobeNorman, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 249 lbReturning
#47Brach RiceCovington, KYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 260 lbReturning
#96Carmine OrozcoSouth Bend, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 308 lbReturning
#67Carson NoonanMedina, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 273 lbReturning
#5Devin BellAkron, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 236 lbReturning
#90Donovan DavisReynoldsburg, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 307 lbReturning
#32James SchottGreenwood, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 246 lbReturning
#9Javon HammondsDayton, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 237 lbReturning
#4Kam WilsonDecatur, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 253 lbReturning
#93Logan HowellDetroit, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#99OJ AlexanderScarborough, ONDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 291 lbReturning
#92Roosevelt Andrews IIIBarberton, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 255 lbReturning
#91Sam WilliamsWyoming, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 234 lbReturning
#97William Goodvine IIIWestfield, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 279 lbReturning
#10Lynel Billups-WilliamsUniversity Park, ILWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 177 lbReturning
#30Josh RingerLawrenceburg, INDB0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#9D'Shawntae JonesCleveland, OHRB0.5 pts56% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 248 lbReturning
#82Andrew BjorsonHinsdale, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning
#23Ian TepasBarrington, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbReturning
#80Michael ParrishWhitehouse, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 189 lbReturning
#86Wilson RobertsPowell, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbReturning
#89Brayden BoeingCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 231 lbReturning
#81Brendan LoftusGlenview, ILTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 210 lbReturning
#83Eric KarnerItasca, ILTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 226 lbReturning
#48Gray MaultsbyRockingham, NCTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 239 lbReturning
#44Noam ButbulCalabasas, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 224 lbReturning
#85Trey ZvonarFrankfort, ILTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbReturning
#6Adrian Walker Jr.Inkster, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning
#13Desmon YharbroughInkster, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbReturning
#18Isaiah RollinsIndianapolis, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 172 lbReturning
#2Jackson PonsNorth Huntingdon, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbReturning
#6Jermaine AgeeCleveland, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbReturning
#19Jerome SmithIndianapolis, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 188 lbReturning
#12Kaleb MartinCleveland, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#28Leo ColombiChardon, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbReturning
#25Mitch BoldenWest Chester, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbReturning
#24Mychal YharbroughBelleville, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#21Toney Coleman Jr.Eufaula, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#11Brock UihleinLake Forest, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#16Christian McKinneyHomewood, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 209 lbReturning
#26Eli CoppessPickerington, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 213 lbReturning
#43Grant LyonsCincinnati, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning
#33Harrison BrewsterDelaware, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 214 lbReturning
#46Luke MyersMiamisburg, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#3Malcolm McCainSnellville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#53Malik RayPickerington, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 240 lbReturning
#35Tyler DikosWestfield, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#37Vito McConnellMassillon, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 221 lbReturning
#36Carter HoldenDublin, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#38Kellan McLaughlinLouisville, KYPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 174 lbReturning
#34Pierse StaintonSarasota, FLP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Maleek HugginsBradenton, FLWR0.6 pts40% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#15Christian RossMidland City, ALTE0.3 pts26% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#2Carl JenkinsSaint Augustine, FLWR0.3 pts25% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#21Lazaro RogersFort Myers, FLRB0.3 pts34% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#66Dominik KosznickiClinton Township, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#58Max HauckAvon, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#63Max KiefCincinnati, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#50Zach HultgrenCentreville, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#23Isaiah HarrisSaline, MIDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#27London Shackleford-VickroyColumbus, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#59Mohamed BangouraWesterville, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#20Zhaiylen ScottCedar Hill, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#88CJ CastnerWest Chester, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#27Jackson RuthCincinnati, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#18Justen HodgeMentor, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#87Leo ScheidlerLake Forest, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#3Quintin SimmonsCincinnati, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#24Scoop SmithPittsburgh, PAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′5″ · 150 lbNew / unverified
#84Tristan ReedWashington, PAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#14Will PressleyOak Ridge, TNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#34Amir MorelanPort Huron, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#29Easton JointerBrentwood, TNDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#39Eli LimourisGlen Ellyn, ILDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#44Jake BrittCincinnati, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#38Max DeckardTipp City, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#36Tommy ThiesRiver Forest, ILDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#48Brody SinkRochester, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#8CJ YoungStrongsville, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#57Evan GilderEdina, MNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#45Ryan StolarskiAvon, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#6Caleb HeavnerDenison, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#11Drew BellisariColumbus, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#19Luke BerryGrand Haven, MIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#22Chancellor SparksBirmingham, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#25Ike StewardMuskegon, MIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#31Brady StidhamLoveland, OHPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#64Nick BradyCincinnati, OHLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#60Trey WallmanPittsford, NYLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1PittsburghNon-conference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 20–30 · 29% win
AwaySep 512:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Holy CrossNon-conference · Yager Stadium · 4M 15–36 · 89% win
HomeSep 121:00 PM EDT · model ↗3CincinnatiNon-conference · TQL Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 39% win
AwaySep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
UConnNon-conference · Yager Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 58% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Bowling GreenConference · Yager Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 68% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
MassachusettsConference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 33–18 · 80% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
AkronConference · Yager Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 74% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Central MichiganConference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 52% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
BuffaloConference · Yager Stadium · 4M 20–29 · 70% win
HomeNov 37:00 PM EST · model ↗11
OhioConference · Yager Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 55% win
HomeNov 107:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Kent StateConference · Dix Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 64% win
AwayNov 177:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Western MichiganConference · Waldo Stadium · 4M 23–26 · 42% win
AwayNov 2412:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Miami (OH) diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Miami (OH) to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?