The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
West Virginia opens No. 84 nationally and No. 15 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.9 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.2 regular-season wins.
West Virginia profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 52 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether West Virginia beats its 4.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachRich Rodriguez22–17 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger34 in · 51 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Michael Hawkins Jr.Dallas, TXQB3.5 pts62% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#4Cam CookRound Rock, TXRB0.9 pts88% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State
#80John NeiderMilford, CTWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#2DJ EppsPhenix City, ALWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Troy
#0Josh SappGreenville, SCTE0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#10Cam BallGlenn Dale, MDTE0.6 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′7″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#54Amare GraysonStockbridge, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State
#79Carsten CasadyRolesville, NCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#69Devin VassBartow, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#78Wes KingAppleton, WIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom Wyoming
#99David AfoghoBoston, MAEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#50Harper HollomanAtlanta, GAEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#95Tobi HaastrupLondonEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#97Will LeBlancHouston, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 288 lbTransfer infrom Texas-Permian Basin
#17Prince StrachanFreeport, GBWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom USC
#11TaRon FrancisAvondale, LAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#7Chams DiagneAtlanta, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#0Andrew PowdrellThe Woodlands, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom UNLV
#12Jacob BradfordBaton Rouge, LAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#8Kamari WilsonFort Pierce, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#29Kameron ReddicHouston, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Stephen F. Austin
#1Geimere Latimer IIFairburn, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#37Maliek HawkinsDallas, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#16Isaiah PattersonTacoma, WALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom UNLV
#40Jason Hall Jr.Fall River, MALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom Villanova
#45Malachi HoodPlainfield, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#14Tyler StolskyPortage, MILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 232 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#42Jack CassidyDerryPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#33Kayden LukeCatalina, AZFB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#39Peter NotaroWexford, PAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#83Bryan HansenColleyville, TXP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#15Scotty Fox Jr.Mentor, OHQB1.7 pts37% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#5Jaden BrayNorman, OKWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#84Ryan WardRutherford, NJTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbReturning
#73Andreas HunterGlen Dale, WVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#59Josh AisosaMcKinney, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#67Landen LivingstonLeo, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 296 lbReturning
#65Malik AgboFederal Way, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 301 lbReturning
#52Nick KraheErie, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 312 lbReturning
#51Raymond KovaleskyWheeling, WVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 278 lbReturning
#61Trevor BigelowFairmont, WVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 273 lbReturning
#98Brandon CaesarCleveland, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 257 lbReturning
#52Corey McIntyre Jr.Port Saint Lucie, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#60Gabe RyanKeyser, WVDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 276 lbReturning
#93Nate GabrielAuburndale, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#51Taylor BrownUpper Marlboro, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#47Wilnerson TelemaqueMiami Gardens, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#86Cyrus TraughParkersburg, WVWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbReturning
#49Carter ZulianiBridgeport, WVTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 261 lbReturning
#27ChaMarryus BomarDuncan, SCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 194 lbReturning
#39Jayden BellFort Lauderdale, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbReturning
#20Keyshawn RobinsonRanson, WVCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbReturning
#19Nick TaylorAtlanta, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbReturning
#33Ashton WoodsMarietta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 228 lbReturning
#15Ben CutterDenver, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 228 lbReturning
#13Cam TorborHoover, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 239 lbReturning
#48Troy FischerMineral, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 222 lbReturning
#26Andre DevineNorth Fort Myers, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 160 lbReturning
#48Nate FlowerFairmont, WVPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 188 lbReturning
#53Kaden SellerHilliard, OHLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 257 lbReturning
#38Macguire MossBatavia, ILLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#19Max AndersonMartinsburg, WVQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbReturning
#6Max BrownTulsa, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#55Aidan WoodsAbingdon, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#72Cam GriffinSelma, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#68Camden GoforthAthens, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#76Deshawn WoodsOmaha, NEOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#60Jonas MuyaFort Wayne, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 293 lbNew / unverified
#74Kevin BrownHarrisburg, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 294 lbNew / unverified
#56Lamarcus DillardGlenarden, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 297 lbNew / unverified
#64Rhett MorrisRidgewood, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#10Jeremiah JohnsonSpanish Springs, NVEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 249 lbNew / unverified
#94Cam MalloryMoody, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 298 lbNew / unverified
#49Carter KesslerShelby, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#91Darius WileyElizabethtown, KYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 268 lbNew / unverified
#92Emerson JoyCalgary, ABDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 253 lbNew / unverified
#72Jaylen ThomasMemphis, TNDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 316 lbNew / unverified
#43KJ HensonAnnapolis, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#41Noah TishendorfSherwood, ORDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 254 lbNew / unverified
#55Yendor MackHarrisburg, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 288 lbNew / unverified
#18Zeke Durham-CampbellAtlanta, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 259 lbNew / unverified
#25Armoni Weaver-BomarSpartanburg, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#32Brad MossorPrinceton, WVWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#89Charlie HanafinBurlington, MAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#87Greg WilfredNew Orleans, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#13Kedrick TriplettFlorence, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#14Keon HutchinsUnion, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#24Landon DrummAnchorage, AKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#23Malachi ThompsonCharleston, WVWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#85Robert OliverTucson, AZWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#81Kade BushChanhassen, MNTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#88Sam HamiltonCincinnati, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 246 lbNew / unverified
#46Xavier AndersonMartinsburg, WVTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#4Da'Mun AllenSanford, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#22Jaire RawlisonYork, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#26Makhi BooneElyria, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 168 lbNew / unverified
#24Rayshawn Reynolds Jr.Montgomery, ALCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#32Simaj HillPhiladelphia, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 184 lbNew / unverified
#11Vincent SmithOrlando, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#42Alex AdebayoElkridge, MDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#6Da'Mare WilliamsSylva, NCS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#3Matt SiegMcdonald, PAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#28Rickey GilesOak Cliff, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#31Shane CornaliHickory, PAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#34Tim RobersonValdosta, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#23Emory SnyderBixby, OKDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 211 lbNew / unverified
#25Jayden BallardChesterfield, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#17Miles KhatriMontgomery, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#30Antoine Sharp Jr.West Palm Beach, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#35Cameron DwyerDelray Beach, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#18John Johnson IIINew Orleans, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′10″ · 178 lbNew / unverified
#8Jyron HughleyBelle Glade, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#7Wyatt Walker BrownLos Angeles, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#1Amari LatimerFairburn, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#22Chris TalleyMemphis, TNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#34Darius MorantHempstead, NYRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#28Lawrence AutryOlive Branch, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
#20Martavious BoswellFort Worth, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Coastal CarolinaNon-conference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 67% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
UT MartinNon-conference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 15–36 · 87% win
HomeSep 121:00 PM EDT · model ↗3VirginiaNon-conference · Bank of America Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 34% win
NeutralSep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Oklahoma StateConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 22–27 · 61% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Iowa StateConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 33% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
ArizonaConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 28–22 · 36% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
CincinnatiConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 45% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
TCUConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 26% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Texas TechConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 14–34 · 14% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
KansasConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 42% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
HoustonConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 27–23 · 40% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
UtahConference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 17–34 · 17% win
AwayNov 279:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about West Virginia diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows West Virginia to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?