The 2026 outlook
How quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?
Texas State opens No. 61 nationally and No. 4 of 8 in the Pac-12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 1.1 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.4 regular-season wins.
Texas State sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 69 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Texas State beats its 5.4-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachG.J. Kinne23–16 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger18 in · 21 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#50Jaylen EarlyDuncanville, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#75Rasheed JacksonColumbus, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 339 lbTransfer infrom TCU
#71William BooneConyers, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 351 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#90Chancellor OwensHaslet, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#30Jason PattersonPhiladelphia, PADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 229 lbTransfer infrom Texas Southern
#18Josiah GrahamNewport News, VADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.— · 250 lbTransfer infrom Monmouth
#99Kaleb JamesMansfield, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 286 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#44Phillip BradfordMonroe, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom McNeese
#4Tae WoodyWelch, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbTransfer infrom UL Monroe
#3Zechariah SamplePickens, MSWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#24Dexter Ricks Jr.Milledgeville, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Liberty
#27John SmithBaytown, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#19Michael Patterson IIIHouston, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 169 lbTransfer infrom Stephen F. Austin
#12Javante MackeyChicago, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State
#21Jordan SampleMissouri City, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 233 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State
#6Davian JacksonNew Iberia, LARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#41Dylan CunananPhoenix, AZPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#10Shaker ReisigTulsa, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#8Brad JacksonSan Antonio, TXQB5.1 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbReturning
#11Beau SparksEl Paso, TXWR0.9 pts65% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbReturning
#1Chris Dawn Jr.Dallas, TXWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning
#2Kylen EvansMcKinney, TXWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#16Blake SmithSouthlake, TXTE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#18Ty StameySpring, TXTE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′7″ · 250 lbReturning
#58Aidin RhodesSugar Land, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 281 lbReturning
#79Alan GrimmeVancleave, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 319 lbReturning
#70Ameer RossDuncanville, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 373 lbReturning
#77Bamidele BadusiGrand Prairie, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 328 lbReturning
#53Cameron SchultzFoley, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbReturning
#55Etueni RopatiHarker Heights, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 321 lbReturning
#66Justin DeLeonKingsville, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 319 lbReturning
#72Kirk GildonTemple, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 291 lbReturning
#67Preston WardDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 304 lbReturning
#68Sully BurnsPlano, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 327 lbReturning
#54Tyler NorrisDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#33Blake IsbellDallas, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 254 lbReturning
#96Bryce CarterChesterfield, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 309 lbReturning
#42Colt SparksGladewater, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbReturning
#14D'Ante KeysBellville, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 257 lbReturning
#5DonTerry RussellJackson, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 228 lbReturning
#91J.P. DeeterManvel, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 294 lbReturning
#32Javarius BellBrownsboro, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 306 lbReturning
#6Jo'Laison LandryHouston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#40Simeon GarnerTyler, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 288 lbReturning
#13Ta'Derius CollinsShreveport, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 233 lbReturning
#4Torrance Burgess Jr.Pearland, TXRB0.5 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 176 lbReturning
#83Jonah JonesDenton, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbReturning
#14Jordan MartinDallas, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbReturning
#87Kris Willis Jr.Houston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbReturning
#13Tucker CusanoDallas, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#9Arvis Battle Jr.Red Oak, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 246 lbReturning
#84Cole SnodgrassConroe, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 237 lbReturning
#88Jake SimpsonFrisco, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 246 lbReturning
#89Jordan WilliamsMidland, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 232 lbReturning
#1Amarion AtwoodMesquite, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 182 lbReturning
#26Chase DavisLittle Elm, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 197 lbReturning
#17Christopher JonesHouston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 189 lbReturning
#8Cordarian PowellRoyse City, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#3Craig Royal Jr.Houston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#29Greg Gipson Jr.Dallas, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#9Jayden BradleyPensacola, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 209 lbReturning
#20Malik WillisRiviera Beach, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 172 lbReturning
#7Ryan NolanGainesville, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning
#25Skylar LewisSulphur Springs, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 189 lbReturning
#2Trez MooreSt. Louis, MODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbReturning
#22Will Mitchell IIMissouri City, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbReturning
#15Ayden JonesHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 224 lbReturning
#49Blaine CarverVictoria, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 203 lbReturning
#10Cole NillesPhiladelphia, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 238 lbReturning
#16Terrence Cooks IIPearland, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbReturning
#28Tice WilliamsConroe, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#11TJ BurkhalterHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#5Jaylen JenkinsAllen, TXRB0.4 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 173 lbReturning
#21Cole PryorSan Antonio, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 178 lbReturning
#0Taji AtkinsHouston, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 181 lbReturning
#38Jacob BonillaOntario, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 167 lbReturning
#43Michael JamesRockwall, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 204 lbReturning
#51Darian SnellHouston, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 218 lbReturning
#17Gavin ParkhurstFort Worth, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbReturning
#78Amari SmithBrookhaven, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 332 lbNew / unverified
#65Eric PerkinsMarshall, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 374 lbNew / unverified
#74Jayden LuckettSan Diego, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#52Mikel UdengwuNorwalk, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#62Teagan LindseyCallisburg, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#60Terrance Brown Jr.Killeen, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#48Braylon YoungDenton, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#93Cam ChristianKilgore, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 302 lbNew / unverified
#31Cullen ThompsonSpring, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#35Emmanuel PeterLas Vegas, NVDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#95Jaylen HarrisChicago, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#34Jonathan DavisOma, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#88Jussiah AliSan Antonio, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#38Mekhi BuchananAcworth, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbNew / unverified
#81Blake MclaneMcKinney, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#20Dameon CroweRichardson, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′6″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#12La'Keyleon GravesKilgore, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#23Xavier WarrenGeorgetown, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#85Russell CrawfordMarshall, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#37Jayden FlournoyBurleson, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#0Jayden LawtonDallas, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#23Darius DavisSan Marcos, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#6Easton WebbSand Springs, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#15Stone WalkerHouston, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#24Juntavious HarrisEuless, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#94Joshua SelmesCentral Coast, NSWP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#92Tom FlintoffMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#57Lincoln PetitjeanCanaan, CTLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1TexasNon-conference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 20–34 · 22% win
AwaySep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
UTSANon-conference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 26–28 · 55% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
North TexasNon-conference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 27–30 · 57% win
HomeSep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Incarnate WordNon-conference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 16–38 · 89% win
HomeSep 266:00 PM EDT · model ↗5San Diego StateConference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 43% win
AwayOct 310:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
Colorado StateConference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 22–33 · 74% win
HomeOct 158:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
Utah StateConference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 24–31 · 64% win
HomeOct 247:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
Boise StateConference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 43% win
AwayOct 3110:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
Oregon StateConference · Reser Stadium · 4M 30–24 · 63% win
AwayNov 710:30 PM EST · model ↗11
Fresno StateConference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 23–30 · 66% win
HomeNov 144:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Washington StateConference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 26–28 · 55% win
HomeNov 216:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Texas State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Texas State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionHow quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?