The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
UL Monroe opens No. 133 nationally and No. 14 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 16.5 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.7 regular-season wins.
UL Monroe starts in the development tier. The preseason prior needs evidence before moving higher, but young or rebuilt teams can improve faster than the market adjusts. September performance matters more here than it does for an established contender.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 121. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBryant Vincent15–22 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger20 in · 17 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#89Cade CallahanTownsend, MATE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Merrimack
#8Bryce AndersonWest Des Moines, IATE0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#69Bright FagbamiyeIndianapolis, INOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Tiffin University
#72Sean DugeryGlen Mills, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#44CJ WilsonDetroit, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Butler
#13Parker FulghumShreveport, LAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#44Jase HoathColumbia, TNTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee State
#17Chris PayneCincinnati, OHS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Lake Erie
#28Larell HowlingChannelview, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#18Taijh OvertonMobile, ALS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#13Armoni RueLakeland, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#33Willie WilsonNorth Brunswick, NJDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom American International
#19Le'Kell Mc'GowanLeague City, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#25Bryson RolandWaco, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas Tech
#3Derrick JamesonMaple Grove, MNRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Utah State
#20Don ChaneyHomestead, FLRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#21Julian WalkerPittsburgh, PARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom St. Vincent
#27Abram MurrayShreveport, LAPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom California
#12Austin CarlisleMissouri City, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Houston
#10Aidan ArmentaAlbuquerque, NMQB4.6 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#7Nic TrujilloRio Rancho, NMWR0.7 pts61% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#5Brandon BuckhaulterJackson, MSWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#4JP CoulterOcean Springs, MSWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#62Adameon BotleyOberlin, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#67AJ VinsonSocial Circle, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#61Ben GehrkeHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#55David ApplewhiteHampton, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#64Drew HutchinsonSpringhill, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#70John Curtis Goodman Jr.Alexandria, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#60Jordan RoweDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#56Kaliem CroswellPhiladelphia, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#50Quentis Griffin Jr.Centreville, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#77Reese SteeleDes Moines, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#74Roscoe TuckerMeridian, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbReturning
#4Derek OmoregieLynn, MADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbReturning
#35Ethan BaileyMontgomery, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#51Jaden RoweDallas, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#92James SmithVirginia Beach, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#95Levontae JacobsSalisbury, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#17Bret VincentSpanish Fort, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 150 lbReturning
#2Javon CampbellKing George, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#85Nate GreenWest Monroe, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#15Steven GorskiMilwaukee, WITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#8Carl FauntroyMobile, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#7Ameyr AdamsFairhope, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#1Jabari TillerSumter, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#6Jay HarperValley, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#20Jordyn WilliamsMonroe, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#2Korian WilsonMobile, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#24Navarion BensonCrystal Springs, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbReturning
#5Zy JacksonHazlehurst, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbReturning
#39Cooper EldridgeRayville, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#22Fred ClarkMonroe, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#9Jaeden CalenderBrandon, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#0Kelbee HolmesPhiladelphia, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#30Marcus RossNewhebron, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#3Noah FlemmingsAustin, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#22Jaydon WrightKankakee, ILRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#99Max LarsonDavie, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#47Makenzie RyanKyabram, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#48Nolan WilsonNewhall, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#14Bryson KimbroughTuscaloosa, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#9Landon GravesMonroe, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#52Edarius GreenNatchez, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#65Freddie GavinHeidelberg, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#73Jeremyah GreenQuitman, AROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#58Nolan AndersonWest Des Moines, IAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#71Van MartinezMonroe, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#99Marvin HallSt. Louis, MODE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#25Moses MadubuikeArlington, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#94Alexei RamirezHouston, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#91Charles BinetRabun Gap, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#98Colton VatneFlower Mound, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#41Wyatt PolandMonroe, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#90Zyan TremontPrairieville, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#6Demarcco BlantonSummit, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#82Jaiden TuckerLexington, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#80Keidric Osunde-BrownArlington, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#1LT RobinsonWichita, KSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#88Marcellus JacksonKnoxville, TNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#19Marcus GallowayBradenton, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbNew / unverified
#18Dalen HustonJohnston, IATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#84Quad HarrisonBirmingham, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#14DJ JesterHomestead, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#21Orlando FreemontMonroe, LAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#42Gavin HowardGoodman, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#12Jayden LewisPinson, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#28Jonathan CrainBrandon, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#16RJ HallTerry, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#14Jackson ParkerFlorence, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#23LaZavier AmosWaco, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#10Rickey BanksMadison, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#16Ty PurdyRaymond, IAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#47Christian PontiWest Monroe, LARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#23CJ PhillipDes Moines, IARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#26Trevon KinchenHampton, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#34Gavin PolkMonroe, LAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#46Matthew FeibushVail, AZLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Mississippi StateNon-conference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 19% win
AwaySep 57:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
UABNon-conference · Protective Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 38% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
SE LouisianaNon-conference · Malone Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 59% win
HomeSep 194:30 PM EDT · model ↗4Florida AtlanticNon-conference · Malone Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 41% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
South AlabamaConference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 36% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Louisiana TechConference · Malone Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 40% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
TroyConference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 22–29 · 35% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
Southern MissConference · Malone Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 41% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Arkansas StateConference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 37% win
AwayNov 73:00 PM EST · model ↗11
LouisianaConference · Malone Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 43% win
HomeNov 129:00 PM EST · model ↗12
App StateConference · Kidd Brewer Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 42% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13MarshallConference · Malone Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 36% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UL Monroe diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows UL Monroe to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?