The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Houston opens No. 39 nationally and No. 8 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 5.3 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.2 regular-season wins.
Houston grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 66 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Houston beats its 6.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachWillie Fritz39–25 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger18 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#4Trent WalkerPortland, ORWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#9Patrick OvermyerKingwood, TXTE0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom UTSA
#14Muizz TounkaraLeague City, TXWR0.6 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#52Anthony BoswellIndianapolis, INOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 301 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#73Drew TerrillLebanon, INOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Miami (OH)
#57Hayden WrightKingwood, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Northwestern
#56Shadre HurstCartersville, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#9Ashton PorterCypress, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#90De'Marion ThomasTulsa, OKDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 340 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#21Makhi HughesBirmingham, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#8Tyson TurnerBryan, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#0Javion WhiteWinnsboro, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#1Jaden YatesColumbus, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#19Miller MaloneMont Belvieu, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#94Evan NoelBay St. Louis, MSPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#64Jack Carson-WentzCanton, GALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Florida A&M
#17Luke CarneyMesquite, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#1Conner WeigmanCypress, TXQB5.0 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#0Amare ThomasBirmingham, ALWR0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#2Koby YoungNew Orleans, LAWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#3Harvey Broussard IIISaint Martinville, LAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbReturning
#85Traville Frederick Jr.Jeanerette, LATE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#79Alvin EboseleCoppell, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 312 lbReturning
#55Demetris Dean IIJasper, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#67Hingano HautauSan Jose, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#70Larry CrawfordMonroe, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#66McKenzie AgnelloCopperas Cove, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 314 lbReturning
#62Ricardo CordovaPasadena, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 270 lbReturning
#72RJ LeeHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 335 lbReturning
#53Ronnell McLainDesoto, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbReturning
#68Sean TerrellSpring, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#10Jaquise MartinBryan, TXWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#94Carmello BrooksKaty, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#45Chance BryantFulshear, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#49Darius WashingtonMansfield, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#47DK MaysBaton Rouge, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#96Eythan ThompsonWaco, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
#51Hunter JonesHouston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning
#18Khalil LaufauSalt Lake City, UTDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#98Myles ParkerSnellville, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 325 lbReturning
#99Quindario LeeMc Kenzie, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#92Travis BuhakeArlington, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#42Hunter TeichmanHouston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#46Jeffrey Strozier Jr.Kansas City, MOWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′6″ · 160 lbReturning
#84Samuel PadgittSan Antonio, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#88Jacory ThurmanHouston, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#19Kaleb ThomasHouston, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#86Wyatt HerbelCypress, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#87Luke McGaryPlano, TXTE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#23Alvin Williamson Jr.Cibolo, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#13C.J. DouglasLeeds, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#37Elijah YoungKlein, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#26Jamaal ShawOrange, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#3JD RhymValdosta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#33Johnsley BarbasAtlanta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#6Jordan AllenLafayette, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#24Keany ParksKenosha, WIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#8Kentrell WebbKaty, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#28Kenzy WestFlowood, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#5Will JamesGrand Bay, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#22Zaylen CormierHouston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#25DJ ButlerMobile, ALRB0.5 pts58% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#4Brandon Mack IIMontgomery, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#25Carmycah GlassMonroe, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#17Christian BrathwaiteCypress, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#48Grayson BoekerThe Woodlands, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#10Latreveon McCutchinAustin, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#30Richmond UgochukwuRichardson, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#43Sheldon RiceFulshear, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#12Sione FotuSalt Lake City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#31Tristan JacksonFort Walton Beach, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#37Zane SmithFulshear, TXRB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 235 lbReturning
#38Aaron DavisUniversal City, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#16JayShon RidgleAthens, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbReturning
#32Nehemiah WarmateDenton, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#6Re'Shaun Sanford IIHarker Heights, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#49Jonathan DimasHouston, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#96Zac YoakamUpper Arlington, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 195 lbReturning
#62Jack RaneySan Jose, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#91Liam DoughertyGeelong, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#47Anthony SaragusaHouston, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbReturning
#69Weston EdwardsValdosta, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#15Jake SockPearland, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#50Aaron WolfordGroves, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#71Noah AbebeFriendswood, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#54Rhett GrayWeatherford, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#77Troy PlessKilleen, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#50Ejiro EgodogbareMilton, MADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#55Isaiah BroughtonHouston, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#91Kaleb WalkerLindale, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#88Xavier FlemingLewisville, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#27Braeden RobinsonHouston, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#22Dorian BarnesHouston, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 155 lbNew / unverified
#82Jack NewhouseAustin, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · —New / unverified
#81Jeremiah BushnellIowa, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#83Keavon RobertsPort Arthur, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#89Jaivion MartinPflugerville, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#42Austin AndersonRosenberg, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#32Isaac RichardsonHouston, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#2Jalen MayoHampton, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#20James Henderson IIIHouston, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#29Javen HolmesBaton Rouge, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#38Johnathan Joseph Jr.Houston, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#54Kvion RobersonMonroe, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#27Mudassir AbdullahWest Columbia, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#14Paris Melvin Jr.Cypress, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#44Rodney Thomas IIHumble, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#41Thompson BennettAustin, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#34Bryson CastileArlington, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#36Liam RileyWeatherford, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#53Tanner CovarMagnolia, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#35Tyler CovarMagnolia, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#13Canon ToonHouston, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#5Keisean HendersonHouston, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#12Ryan SmithThe Woodlands, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#23John HebertHouston, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Oregon StateNon-conference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 78% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
SouthernNon-conference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 10–42 · 96% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Texas TechConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 18–31 · 24% win
AwaySep 188:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Georgia SouthernNon-conference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 32–23 · 68% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
UCFConference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 66% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Kansas StateConference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 38% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Oklahoma StateConference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 74% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
UtahConference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 29% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
CincinnatiConference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 64% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
ColoradoConference · Folsom Field · 4M 28–24 · 57% win
AwayNov 1310:15 PM EST · model ↗12
West VirginiaConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 27–23 · 60% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
BaylorConference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 57% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Houston diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Houston's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?