The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
South Florida opens No. 40 nationally and No. 1 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 5.0 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.7 regular-season wins.
South Florida sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 118. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBrian Hartline0–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Alex Golesh
Portal ledger44 in · 34 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#10KJ CooperEl Paso, TXQB4.6 pts90% starter · 64% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Texas Southern
#5D.J. CrowtherSacramento, CARB0.8 pts85% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Dartmouth
#2Jason Collins Jr.Washington, DCRB0.8 pts88% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Morgan State
#18Kenny OdomSavannah, GAWR0.7 pts62% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#9Armani WinfieldLewisville, TXWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#1Bryson RodgersTampa, FLWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#4Arhmad BranchFestus, MOWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Purdue
#87Luke ClyburnCamden, SCTE0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′7″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Furman
#0Cameron SeldonBrowns Store, VAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#78Caleb CookBrunswick, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#72Cash HudsonTulsa, OKOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Missouri State
#59Devin DavisAtlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#79Ethan GreenFremont, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#65Jaylin AcevedoOrlando, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Navy
#61Julius TateGreenville, SCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#71Kahari FinleyClinton, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Morgan State
#77Michael WootenDuquesne, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#1C.J. HicksDayton, OHDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#49Harrysson NgassaChicago, ILDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#90Terrell JonesHoover, ALDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#11Asani RedwoodSuwanee, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#77Major DillardUpper Marlboro, MDDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Norfolk State
#56Terry Simmons Jr.Savannah, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#7Jaron GloverSarasota, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#85Kade CatonManvel, TXTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#8Amarion FortenberryColumbia, MSCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#16Teddy FosterSarasota, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#3Za'Quan BryanSavannah, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Minnesota
#20A'mon Lane-GanusColumbiana, ALS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#9Israel BoyceDouglasville, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#13Malcolm ZiglarFuquay-Varina, NCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#5Ayden JacksonAtlanta, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#15Tayvion BeasleyInglewood, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom BYU
#0Grayson HowardJacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#45MarShon OxleyLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#54Michael HarrisApopka, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 223 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#7Sam RobinsonTallahassee, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#10Shamar MeikleMiramar, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#37Lawson ThornCharleston, SCPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Wingate
#17Luke KromenhoekSavannah, GAQB0.3 pts5% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#16Jayden BradfordColumbia, SCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Liberty
#3Michael Van Buren Jr.Bowie, MDQB0.1 pts4% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#6Mudia ReubenKansas City, MOWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#80Joshua PorterSebring, FLWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#19JeyQuan SmithSan Bernardino, CAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#81Tayte CrableMassillon, OHTE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#8Wyatt SullivanAtlanta, GATE0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#47Evan DanglerBradenton, FLTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#54Braden CarterCumming, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#73Caleb HarrisMiami, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#76Colin BellomyPowder Springs, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 284 lbReturning
#70Gerrick Gordon Jr.Reddick, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#55James JenkinsTampa, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#60Khalil CollinsMoultrie, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbReturning
#66Teriyan MormanOcala, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 355 lbReturning
#67Thomas ShraderVenice, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbReturning
#58TJ LawrenceOrange Park, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#14Eli JonesVenice, FLDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#18Levi SmileyCincinnati, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#4Michael Williams IIFarmington Hills, MIDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#98Marcus WilliamsValdosta, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#93Richard Scott IIIFort Lauderdale, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#28Ryan JenkinsAlbany, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#99Jahari GrantPort Saint Lucie, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#24Tray KinkleHolly Springs, MSRB0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#15Alvon IsaacHawthorne, FLRB0.5 pts60% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#27Jayden DavisBaltimore, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#88Brandon KubayWinnipeg, MBTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning
#39Daron JeanBradenton, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#29Deylen PlattVenice, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbReturning
#35Herlin Perry Jr.East Providence, RICB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#31Jair MurphyOcoee, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 203 lbReturning
#23Cedrick Hawkins Jr.Titusville, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#27Jermichael GillisLakeland, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 178 lbReturning
#2Tavin WardFort Myers, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#21Victor ZidorCocoa, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#41George Brown IVOrlando, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbReturning
#12Jabari SmithOrlando, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#14Arkese ParksTampa, FLWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#12Jaden AlexisPompano Beach, FLWR0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#33Ashton MosleyBlountstown, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#94Brooks Williams Jr.Port Saint Lucie, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbReturning
#52Christian SmithKennesaw, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbReturning
#36DeAngelo BowdenWashington, DCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#53Gavin LeachNewburgh, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#55Greg OttenFort Lauderdale, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#6Rodney HillBunnell, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbReturning
#25Zavier HamiltonGulf Breeze, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#22Chase GarnettFort Worth, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning
#7Nico GramaticaTampa, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′8″ · 165 lbReturning
#39Luke GoaterMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#49Easton BonnettOrlando, FLLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#48Turner McLaughlinPensacola, FLLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#74Jordan HarrisonClinton, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#19Peter RamilBinghamton, NYDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#96Sager QuinnCohutta, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#95Iverson Garcia-PonceKnoxville, TNDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#84Dmari RobertsSt. Petersburg, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 169 lbNew / unverified
#82Gabe LegrandLake Wales, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#89Ryley ZaluskyDallas, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#22Ja'Kyri WatsonKissimmee, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#34Keyshaun BirksSt. Petersburg, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#17Masiyah LimehousePlant City, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#24Amari JonesDunnellon, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#26CJ Cresser Jr.Brooksville, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#38Derrick Nichols IIIMiami, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#32Demetrius Geathers Jr.Deerfield Beach, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#44Dennis King IIIDaytona Beach, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#30Lorenzo BarnesMarianna, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#32Connor MathewsNiceville, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#25Jayson FranklinFayetteville, NCRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#30Jeremiah JohnsonTallahassee, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 214 lbNew / unverified
#10Gaston GramaticaTampa, FLPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Florida InternationalNon-conference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 19–34 · 80% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2ArmyConference · Michie Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 57% win
AwaySep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
Delaware StateNon-conference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 11–42 · 95% win
HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4Bowling GreenNon-conference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 31–20 · 73% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
TempleConference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 20–34 · 78% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
UTSAConference · Alamodome · 4M 27–26 · 51% win
AwayOct 87:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
Kent StateNon-conference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 18–36 · 84% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
UABConference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 19–34 · 80% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
East CarolinaConference · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 54% win
AwayNov 67:30 PM EST · model ↗11
MemphisConference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 67% win
HomeNov 128:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Florida AtlanticConference · FAU Stadium · 4M 31–23 · 67% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
TulaneConference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 62% win
HomeNov 2712:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about South Florida diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and South Florida's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?