The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Kansas opens No. 45 nationally and No. 9 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.5 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.5 regular-season wins.
Kansas sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 58 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Kansas beats its 5.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachLance Leipold27–35 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger31 in · 26 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#10Chase JenkinsHouston, TXQB4.3 pts91% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Rice
#5Nik McMillanBuffalo, NYWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#0Nahzae CoxFresno, CAWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#6Yasin WillisNewark, NJRB0.7 pts77% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#4Jalen DupreeBenton, ARRB0.7 pts73% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#1Dylan EdwardsDerby, KSRB0.6 pts67% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#85Carter MosesWilmington, NCTE0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom Albany
#78Brandon SolisNashville, TNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 304 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#79Connor StrohFrisco, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#51Kasen CarpenterAllen, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#52Nick MorrowFlagstaff, AZOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 323 lbTransfer infrom California
#55Trezelle Jenkins Jr.Detroit, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 307 lbTransfer infrom Wayne State
#44David SantiagoRaleigh, NCDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#99Eamon SmallsBeaufort, NCDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#96Jibriel CondeYpsilanti, MIDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Grand Valley State
#88Kevin OatisHattiesburg, MSDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#95Tre'Von McAlpineSaraland, ALDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#9Jailen ButlerChicago, ILTE0.4 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 253 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#10Elijah CannonCoconut Creek, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#5Roman PearsonPickerington, OHCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Ball State
#20Christian PritchettHarvey, LAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#3Corey GordonOklahoma City, OKS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#12Jaden HarrisAtlanta, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Georgia
#22Khijohnn Cummings-ColemanMinneapolis, MNS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#14Jaron WillisAlbany, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#25Jibreel Al-AminWoodbridge, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#15Landyn WatsonHutto, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#13Quincy DavisLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#39Rino MonteforteNorth Babylon, NYLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom California
#29Martin ConningtonMeridian, IDPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#7Cam PickettChicago, ILWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#87Leyton CureGoodland, KSTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 249 lbReturning
#3Keaton KubeckaAustin, TXWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning
#56Amir HerringSouthfield, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#73Anderson KoppPhoenix, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#76Antonio WilsonOrlando, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#75Calvin ClementsLawrence, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 327 lbReturning
#72DeAndre HarperOmaha, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 322 lbReturning
#67Eli RichmondPaola, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbReturning
#74Jack TannerHighland Village, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 317 lbReturning
#71James LivingstonDexter, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 317 lbReturning
#54Tavake TuikolovatuWailuku, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#44Carson BruhnSioux Center, IATE0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 259 lbReturning
#90Adrian HolleyWestville, INDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#91Alex BrayChesterfield, MODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#9Dakyus BrinkleyKaty, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 253 lbReturning
#45Garrett MartinScottsdale, AZDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#33Leroy Harris IIIBrentwood, TNDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#94Blake HeroldShenandoah, IADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbReturning
#71Grady SeyfertBeloit, KSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 304 lbReturning
#93Josiah HammondTulsa, OKDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 293 lbReturning
#56Marcus CalvinSaint Petersburg, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#70Jason StricklandOlathe, KSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 279 lbReturning
#12Bryson HayesWichita, KSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#86Donald CollierAndover, KSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#82Isreal Moses VMinneapolis, MNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbReturning
#89Jackson CookLoganville, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbReturning
#11Tate NagyOverland Park, KSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 174 lbReturning
#83Conlee HoveyLouisburg, KSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#14Mikey PauleyOverland Park, KSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 248 lbReturning
#81Quinton ConleyKansas City, MOTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 251 lbReturning
#0Austin AlexanderHazel Crest, ILCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbReturning
#19Chris McCorkleBradenton, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#6Jahlil HurleyFlorence, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#1Jalen ToddSouthfield, MICB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#36Jameer MooreSalina, KSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 197 lbReturning
#2Syeed GibbsEverett, MACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#16Brandon SchmelzleAxtell, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#40Colter McDanielCheney, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 191 lbReturning
#24Darrion JonesFort Myers, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbReturning
#23Mason EllisMulvane, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#27Taylor DavisMissouri City, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbReturning
#41Ezra VedralOmaha, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 226 lbReturning
#11Malachi CurveyWaukee, IALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 236 lbReturning
#4Trey LathanGoulds, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbReturning
#24John KellyCypress, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#25Justin ThurmanTampa, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 204 lbReturning
#22Micah JohnsonWichita, KSRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#98Dane EfirdBranson, MOPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#49Hollis MoellerShawnee, KSLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#8Isaiah MarshallSouthfield, MIQB0.3 pts5% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#15Cole BallardWestfield, INQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 218 lbReturning
#53Kaden MoodyBroken Arrow, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#64Kaden SnyderSalina, KSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#77Malachi MillsCarmel, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#58Marco MohajirOrlando, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#68Max ManskeOverland Park, KSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#53Draeden PuntOrange City, IADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#97Hunter HigginsWichita, KSDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#50Wyatt BrungardtWellsville, KSDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#98Jalen AtkinsWagoner, OKDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#92Nakwaine CarterOklahoma City, OKDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#19Corbin GlascoDenton, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#80Griffin BakerWichita, KSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#13Nate SimsOttawa, KSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#17Tyren ParkerTopeka, KSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#35Jack UtzKansas City, MOTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#88Kevin SullivanKansas City, MOTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#26Robert ReddickIndianapolis, INCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#17Trey BrownCarson, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#34Dillon MarshallOverland Park, KSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#7Bam CrouchTampa, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#18Joseph CreditPearland, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#8Josh GalbreathLawrence, KSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#30Parker SchwarzLa Cygne, KSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#32Xander BlasingTopeka, KSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#18Braylen RooneyPhoenix, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#20Connor HanikaTopeka, KSQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#16Jaylen MasonWichita, KSQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#30Jack ReevesPrairie Village, KSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#2Kory AmachreeHaslett, MIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#33Ben ShipleyHouston, TXP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#99Matthew GillSydney, NSWP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Long Island UniversityNon-conference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 12–42 · 95% win
HomeSep 48:00 PM EDT · model ↗2MissouriNon-conference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 41% win
HomeSep 118:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
Arizona StateConference · Wembley Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 48% win
NeutralSep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
Middle TennesseeNon-conference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 19–35 · 82% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
UtahConference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 22–33 · 26% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Kansas StateConference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 38% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
BaylorConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–29 · 55% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
TCUConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 39% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
UCFConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 64% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
West VirginiaConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 58% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
BYUConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 41% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Oklahoma StateConference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 30–24 · 63% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Kansas diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Kansas's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?