The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
James Madison opens No. 44 nationally and No. 1 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.5 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.5 regular-season wins.
James Madison sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 115. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBilly Napier34–24 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Bob Chesney
Portal ledger37 in · 31 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#5Arrington MaidenCollege Station, TXQB1.7 pts36% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#11Noah GreviousCharlottesville, VAWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom VMI
#23Nick HermanChicago, ILRB0.8 pts75% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Drake
#8Jeremiah HarrisonCharlotte, NCWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom East Tennessee State
#34Seth CromwellLittleton, CORB0.7 pts73% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Northern Arizona
#13KD MosleyLaurens, SCTE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Howard
#53Daniel MichelFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Florida International
#77DJ FoxUnion Grove, WIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin-River Falls
#76Frankie TinilauBrisbane, QLDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom East Tennessee State
#78Josh ManeckeDowners Grove, ILOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Army
#72Kaedin MasseyLyndon, KSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#70Noel PortnjaginKarlsruheOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#56Tyler BrownJackson, MSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#9Davi BelfortRio De JaneiroWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#17Danny RoysterIndianapolis, INEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Indianapolis
#19Ernest Willor Jr.Baltimore, MDEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#9Kei'Trone SimpsonDallas, TXEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Lamar
#0Mason PurhamHampton, VAEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Emory & Henry
#10Chukwunedu OkekeMableton, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#91Jakolbi WilsonChicago, ILDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom Fort Hays
#5Kevin RobertsApopka, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom West Florida
#55Rasheed LovelacePensacola, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Nicholls
#3Corey ScottJacksonville, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom West Florida
#18Kylan BilliotHouma, LAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#28Micah MatthewsBridgewater, VAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#82Thatcher MillerLititz, PATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom West Chester
#1Damier MinkahGainesville, VACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Shepherd
#6DJ KellyAllentown, PACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#7Javis MynattKnoxville, TNS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Texas State
#24Jayon HarveyIndianapolis, INS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Findlay
#25Terrence JonesProsper, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Fordham
#15JT HootenDaleville, ALLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom West Alabama
#12Lathan CroleyMiami, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#2Nakian JacksonStockton, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Nevada
#20Malachi Fannin-RenderWest Point, GARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′6″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Liberty
#84Andrew BennettThomasville, GAP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#7Camden ColemanWinston-Salem, NCQB1.3 pts30% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#1JC EvansMiami, FLQB1.3 pts30% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 232 lbReturning
#10Braeden WisloskiElysburg, PAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbReturning
#17Michael ScottYork, PAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 160 lbReturning
#12Za'Ron CollinsMiami, FLWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#71Deacon RawlsElizabeth City, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#73Evan BushongHarrisburg, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#58Griffin HartLeesburg, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#55JaKobe CampbellRaleigh, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbReturning
#65Parker CunninghamSouth Park, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#74Sani ReedCrozet, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#75Wyatt MainesHollidaysburg, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#60Zach GreenbergLivingston, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#8Amar ThomasUpper Marlboro, MDEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbReturning
#92Grayson GilmoreTampa, FLEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning
#98Turner SchmidtHilliard, OHEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#99Cole WebsterWaxhaw, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#88Kells BushNew Orleans, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#93Mychal McMullinNewport News, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbReturning
#16Arrion ConcepcionCharlotte, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbReturning
#81Chase PensylShamokin, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 180 lbReturning
#88Dylan WilliamsRoswell, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#2Jayden MinesAshland, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#43Miles HalbertOwings, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#84Brian HnatAndover, MATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#86Ethan GurelaRoswell, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#85Ryder PostBroadway, VATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#41George LovelaceRichmond, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#27Jamal OlfordWylie, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbReturning
#23Ken WillisCincinnati, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#21Roddrey McWilliamsRichmond, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#32Chase MillerBaltimore, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#22Chase ReganDillsburg, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#35Joshua PrinceSterling, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#47Kevin KabaseleMclean, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 197 lbReturning
#14KJ FloweCharlotte, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#31Seth GathersWaldorf, MDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#16TJ McGillCharlotte, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#6George PettawaySuffolk, VARB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#3Gannon WeathersbyAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbReturning
#26Jayden StudioPerry, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#42JT Kouame-YaoCentreville, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#45Lee JohnsonRichmond Hill, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#21Jackson McCarterBristow, VARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#22Trashon DyePassaic, NJRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbReturning
#11Patrick ReaMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#5Morgan SuarezWellington, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#0Cole KellerGrain Valley, MOTE0.3 pts26% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#52Jack HarrisRumson, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#50Jesse SearsPlattsburgh, NYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#54Jonah SmithBear, DEOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#90Cory SimonLauderdale Lakes, FLEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#44Kacey GilliamMontgomery Village, MDEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#51Chris BisphamHavelock, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#15Elijah MossNorfolk, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#24Kaleb SmithTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#30Trace BurneyJacksonville, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′6″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#83Xavier McDonaldMorton, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#40Zion HudsonFort Valley, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#44Max RocheNiceville, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#89Thomas GuillemetteOtterburn Park, PQTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#28Kamden JenningsAlpharetta, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#29KJ WrightCharlotte, NCCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#11LaRon DuesCharleston, WVCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#33Trey GibsonKing Of Prussia, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#30D'Kwan ThomasTemple Hills, MDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#18Jase RhodesRoanoke, VAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#40Josiah PerryFredericksburg, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#14Tanner VibabulLas Vegas, NVQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#27Phoenix DonghiaJupiter, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#95Baylen WoodmanJanesville, WIPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#37Hayden RossTiger, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#47Michell DietzelBurlington, WILS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1LibertyNon-conference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 69% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
WagnerNon-conference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 10–41 · 96% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3San Diego StateNon-conference · Snapdragon Stadium · 4M 23–26 · 45% win
AwaySep 1910:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Old DominionConference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 25–24 · 52% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
MarshallConference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 67% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Georgia SouthernConference · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 4M 30–23 · 66% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Georgia StateConference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 81% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
App StateConference · Kidd Brewer Stadium · 4M 31–20 · 73% win
AwayOct 227:00 PM EDT · model ↗9TroyConference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 74% win
HomeOct 297:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
Southern MissConference · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 4M 28–22 · 64% win
AwayNov 58:00 PM EST · model ↗11
UConnNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 61% win
AwayNov 1412:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Coastal CarolinaConference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 18–32 · 78% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about James Madison diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and James Madison's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?