The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
Kentucky opens No. 52 nationally and No. 15 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.9 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.2 regular-season wins.
Kentucky sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 5 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Kentucky can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 4.2-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachWill Stein0–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Mark Stoops
Portal ledger31 in · 27 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#16JacQai LongHurricane, WVQB1.6 pts39% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#6Shane CarrBakersfield, CAWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Southern Utah
#18Xavier DaisyNorcross, GAWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#10Callum WitherToronto, ONQB0.6 pts14% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Laurier
#3Kenny MincheyHendersonville, TNQB0.6 pts14% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#4Nic AndersonKaty, TXWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#72Coleton PriceBowie, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#53Lance HeardBonita, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#67Mark RobinsonAltamonte Springs, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 328 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#50Max AndersonFrisco, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 299 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#73Olaus AlinenPoriOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 329 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#77Tegra TshabolaWest Chester, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 329 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#97Tyler ThomasMobile, ALDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#6Ahmad BreauxRuston, LADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#96Dominic WisemanDavenport, IADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 298 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#7Jamarrion HarklessLexington, KYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 346 lbTransfer infrom Purdue
#2Jovantae BarnesLas Vegas, NVRB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#1CJ BaxterBoynton Beach, FLRB0.4 pts59% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#12Brock CoffmanLexington, KYWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#5Ja'Kayden FergusonHouston, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#3Aaron GatesNewnan, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#13Cyrus ReyesKaty, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#12Hasaan SykesTucker, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina
#16Jesse Anderson IIIFort Lauderdale, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#5Jordan CastellOrlando, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#18Mark Manfred IIIMarietta, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 171 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#9Antonio O'BerryDayton, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 244 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb
#0Elijah BarnesDallas, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 242 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#25Tavion WallaceJesup, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 241 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#88Adam ZouaguiReston, VAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom South Florida
#40Cole MarszalekGoodyear, AZLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State
#14Brennen WardGahanna, OHQB1.0 pts23% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 227 lbReturning
#52Cameron Miller Jr.Hammond, INOL0.8 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 341 lbReturning
#81Willie RodriguezTaylor Mill, KYTE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 249 lbReturning
#17Hardley Gilmore IVBelle Glade, FLWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbReturning
#87Henry BoyerChicago, ILTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 270 lbReturning
#55Aba SelmIndependence, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 327 lbReturning
#68Alexander DiMartinoFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbReturning
#78Cameron JonesWeirton, WVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 335 lbReturning
#75Hayes JohnsonCampbellsville, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#61Jason EkperuohMontreal, PQOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 354 lbReturning
#79Jay ClarkCleveland, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 318 lbReturning
#74Jermiel AtkinsTrotwood, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 326 lbReturning
#63Kyle MixonWarner Robins, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 321 lbReturning
#71Malachi WoodRichmond, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 329 lbReturning
#70Rob FoglerCincinnati, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbReturning
#66Tino MerloYoungstown, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 278 lbReturning
#23Brian RobinsonYoungstown, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 257 lbReturning
#91Jaden WilliamsInglewood, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#93Kalen EdwardsDyersburg, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 335 lbReturning
#90Mi'Quise Humphrey-GraceCincinnati, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 271 lbReturning
#55Nic SmithLoganville, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 282 lbReturning
#94Tavion GadsonSavannah, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 303 lbReturning
#7DJ MillerSt. Louis, MOWR0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbReturning
#80Ashton CozartFlower Mound, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbReturning
#33Rico CrowderGlasgow, KYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 201 lbReturning
#39Saxton HowardLexington, KYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 177 lbReturning
#37Spencer LeadbetterGlenview, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 198 lbReturning
#85Elijah BrownDayton, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 263 lbReturning
#44Justin KattusCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbReturning
#8Mikkel SkinnerGreer, SCTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 234 lbReturning
#26Andrew PurcellEnterprise, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 201 lbReturning
#36Andrew WeberCincinnati, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 179 lbReturning
#28Demarcus GardnerCedartown, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 177 lbReturning
#10Dyllon WilliamsDemopolis, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 191 lbReturning
#30Grant GraytonLaurel, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 194 lbReturning
#24Jaden SmithCharlotte, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#19Kevis ThomasPerry, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 181 lbReturning
#0Martels Carter Jr.Chattanooga, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#21Nasir AddisonIrvington, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning
#20Terhyon NicholsCincinnati, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 194 lbReturning
#14Ty BryantLexington, KYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#4Antwan SmithAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 226 lbReturning
#15Cedric WorksDayton, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbReturning
#32Devin SmithBrunswick, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 231 lbReturning
#22Grant GodfreySuwanee, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#8Lorenzo CowanSavannah, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#31Quintavion NormanCovington, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbReturning
#2Sam GreeneWashington, DCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 251 lbReturning
#26Jason PattersonSneads, FLRB0.4 pts55% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 204 lbReturning
#28Tovani MizellFort Lauderdale, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 213 lbReturning
#91Jacob KauweBillings, MTPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbReturning
#93Wilson BerryMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 206 lbReturning
#62Ben MyersPaducah, KYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#69Hank TimonGuilford, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 318 lbNew / unverified
#57Jordan KnoxRock Hill, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 329 lbNew / unverified
#60Mason HowardFort Thomas, KYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 321 lbNew / unverified
#64Ryan MeekerWheelersburg, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 311 lbNew / unverified
#92Ben DuncumAustin, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
#89Cash HarneyCovington, KYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#84Davis McCraySan Antonio, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#13Denairius GrayBoynton Beach, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#19Kenny DarbyBossier City, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#83Prince JeanValdosta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#11Lincoln WatkinsPort Huron, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 234 lbNew / unverified
#33Sam Brown IIISan Clemente, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#1Andre Clarke Jr.Richmond, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 176 lbNew / unverified
#11Braxton UrquhartBirmingham, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#27Isaiah McMillianKaty, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 176 lbNew / unverified
#38Tyler WrightBixby, OKDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbNew / unverified
#53Ben ReevesEdgewood, KYLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#17Justyn HartleyHoover, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#15Carson CruverAustin, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#82Kendall TamblingGainesville, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#9Matt PonatoskiCincinnati, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#22Delvecchio Alston IITrussville, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#34Isaiah JacksonRichmond, KYRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#35Matthew ObermeierCarmel, INPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#48Thomas O'HaraMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#59Jack WheelerCharlotte, NCLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbNew / unverified
#97Spencer RadnotiCanton, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 237 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Youngstown StateNon-conference · Kroger Field · 4M 17–33 · 82% win
HomeSep 51:00 PM EDT · model ↗2AlabamaConference · Kroger Field · 4M 29–22 · 35% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Texas A&MConference · Kyle Field · 4M 18–32 · 22% win
AwaySep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
South AlabamaNon-conference · Kroger Field · 4M 20–32 · 74% win
HomeSep 2612:45 PM EDT · model ↗5
South CarolinaConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 36% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
LSUConference · Kroger Field · 4M 26–22 · 42% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
OklahomaConference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 18–30 · 26% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
VanderbiltConference · Kroger Field · 4M 29–25 · 41% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
TennesseeConference · Neyland Stadium · 4M 21–32 · 27% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
FloridaConference · Kroger Field · 4M 26–24 · 46% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
MissouriConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 20–29 · 30% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
LouisvilleNon-conference · Kroger Field · 4M 26–23 · 43% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Kentucky diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Kentucky's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?