Iowa State 2026 Preview — No. 46 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?

Iowa State opens No. 53 nationally and No. 11 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.8 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.5 regular-season wins.

Iowa State sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.

There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.

The schedule grades No. 57 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Iowa State beats its 5.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachJimmy Rogers6–6 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Matt Campbell

Portal ledger48 in · 55 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback37

Offensive line51

Receivers44

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InIsaac TerrellEDGE · from Washington State · 3★

InJack JanikowskiEDGE · from Washington State · 3★

InMaasai KingOT · from Akron · 3★

InSeth JohnsonCB · from Montana State · 3★

InCaden MaasIOL · from Sioux Falls · 3★

InJaheim SingletaryCB · from Arkansas · 3★

InMicah HarperS · from Montana · 3★

InTyler FortenberryTE · from Arkansas State · 3★

InJake TaylorOT · from Oklahoma · 3★

InCaden CrawfordEDGE · from South Dakota · 3★

InSalahadin AllahRB · from Oregon State · 3★

InMalcolm JonesS · from Jacksonville State · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBJaylen Raynor2.6 pts53% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + portal role + QB starter probability

QBZane Flores2.1 pts44% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + portal role + QB starter probability

WRCody Jackson0.8 pts56% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

TETyler Fortenberry0.7 pts47% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WROmari Hayes0.6 pts46% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WRDominic Overby0.6 pts51% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#1Jaylen RaynorWinston-Salem, NCQB2.6 pts53% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State

#6Zane FloresGretna, NEQB2.1 pts44% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State

#2Cody JacksonRichmond, TXWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Tarleton State

#19Tyler FortenberryBrookhaven, MSTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State

#9Omari HayesSarasota, FLWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Tulane

#8Evan BoydEast Lansing, MIWR0.6 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State

#0Cameron PettawayFarmington Hills, MIRB0.5 pts62% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green

#88Christian GreenlawNewport News, VATE0.5 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Hampton

#63Braden SmithFranklin, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Tarleton State

#54Cade MyerFrisco, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Colorado School of Mines

#77Caden MaasWatertown, WIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Sioux Falls

#56Colin AmickSammamish, WAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Montana

#78DeAndre CarterTemecula, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 345 lbTransfer infrom Auburn

#74Gavin BrosciousSurprise, AZOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 303 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State

#70Gavin ProudfootDresbach, MNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Northern Iowa

#79Jake TaylorLas Vegas, NVOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma

#51Maasai KingCamden, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Akron

#55Trevor BindelLiberty, MOOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#4Carter PabstWichita, KSWR0.5 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#92Caden CrawfordLansing, KSDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom South Dakota

#88Isaac TerrellLehi, UTDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#93Jack JanikowskiFallbrook, CADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#98Malaki Ta'aseMesa, AZDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#99Bryson LambBellingham, WADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#89Donovan FitzmauriceSt. Louis, MODT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 284 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#90Jareb RamosCentennial, CODT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 284 lbTransfer infrom Montana

#13Kaleb Bilal-JonesPhoenix, AZDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 294 lbTransfer infrom Arizona

#97Max BalounRedfield, SDDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 293 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#17Jordyn BaileyDenton, TXWR0.4 pts43% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom TCU

#87Jordan VybornyRockford, ILTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State

#9Jaheim SingletaryJacksonville, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas

#1Keyon WashingtonWaldorf, MDCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green

#3Seth JohnsonFrisco, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Montana State

#20Trillion SorrellBloomington, MNCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#26Tyrone Cotton IIIChicago, ILCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#2Braden AwlsSylvania, OHS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Toledo

#24Brody MillerShakopee, MNS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#14Damarius RussellWaseca, MNS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#21Duhron GoodmanPacoima, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#16Malcolm JonesCamilla, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 219 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State

#4Micah HarperChandler, AZS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom Montana

#7Salahadin AllahLa Marque, TXRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State

#31Montreze Smith Jr.Carrollton, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom Austin Peay

#7Sullivan SchlimgenSioux Falls, SDLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#8Tristan ExlineChina Spring, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Texas-Permian Basin

#3Arnold Barnes IIINew Orleans, LARB0.4 pts50% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Tulane

#98Adlai LounsburyVan Meter, IAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Washington State

#46Caleb SchmidtChaska, MNLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Minot State

#11Dominic OverbyWest Jordan, UTWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbReturning

#72Austin BarrettSt. Charles, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning

#62Braden SimonsenAnkeny, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning

#69Dontrell HoltJoplin, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning

#71Gabriel GreenleeAmes, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbReturning

#65Garret RutledgeCouncil Bluffs, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning

#68Makai SatSanta Maria, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 335 lbReturning

#96Chet AndrewsHuntley, ILDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning

#55Jace GilbertWaukesha, WIDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbReturning

#50Jack LimbaughAlgona, IADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning

#44Trey VerdonHamilton, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbReturning

#95Ka'Mori MooreLee's Summit, MODT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 304 lbReturning

#0Zaimir HawkHillside, NJDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbReturning

#21Aiden FloraAdel, IARB0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#23Carson RobbinsAltoona, IAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning

#83Sam ZelenovichAltoona, IAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning

#89Ty ClaiborneLenexa, KSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning

#39AJ PetersenLong Grove, IATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning

#10Cash HaydenCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbReturning

#48Jack BjornParkville, MOTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 260 lbReturning

#85Keaton RoskopCedar Rapids, IATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning

#37Vince BenettiAdel, IATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning

#32Angelo JacksonDavenport, IACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbReturning

#5Beni NgoyiLincoln, NECB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 193 lbReturning

#18David CoffeyChicago, ILCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning

#43Caden MatsonHumboldt, IAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#6Drew SurgesChicago, ILS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 203 lbReturning

#19Eddie LemosLoveland, COS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning

#34Beau GoodwinKingsley, IALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 221 lbReturning

#10Carson WillichBlue Springs, MOLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning

#17Connor WelschAnkeny, IALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning

#12Ethan SteckerSpirit Lake, IALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 227 lbReturning

#41Rylan BarnesBritt, IALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning

#22Ryver PeppersIndependence, MORB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#25Easton MillerAnkeny, IARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning

#44Wyatt ArcherOmaha, NERB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning

#94Chase SmithEldridge, IAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning

#97Kyle KonrardyDubuque, IAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 204 lbReturning

#93Jonah DuPontCedar Rapids, IAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#49Gavin SchielerNormal, ILLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 223 lbReturning

#60Jacob LyftogtWaunakee, WILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 235 lbReturning

#5Connor MoberlyAltoona, IAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 214 lbReturning

#16Wyatt BohmMahomet, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning

#61Benji MakelelaKinshasaOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#64Brady HarrHampton, IAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#66Derek WordenQueen Creek, AZOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified

#52Kingston FotualiiSeattle, WAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified

#57Ajibola AfuyeStillwater, MNDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified

#91Blake HawkinsGretna, NEDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#47Tyler BurnsteinPhoenix, AZDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 243 lbNew / unverified

#56Daniel HowardChicago, ILDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified

#53Jaden WeaverChicago, ILDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#94Jake JonesGilbert, AZDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 292 lbNew / unverified

#12Braden GoellnerSt. Charles, MOWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#13Jamal Polite Jr.Beaufort, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#34Jeffrey RobertsAmes, IAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified

#80Malcolm WatkinsBakersfield, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified

#86Ray CoffeyChicago, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#82Trevor FortenberryBrookhaven, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#33Zach EskildsenFrisco, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#40Carson EdneyLogan, IATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#14Drake DeBaunOverland Park, KSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 255 lbNew / unverified

#84Drew ByrdMeridian, IDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbNew / unverified

#81Luke GalerLoomis, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#38Amiri BarnesKaty, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#29Toe SandersNew Orleans, LACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#33Brady HummelJamestown, NDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#42Matthew McClainFrisco, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#35Tayten DuncanMustang, OKS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#22Xavier MartinezChicago, ILS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbNew / unverified

#36Bradley EsserSioux Falls, SDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#40Landon KalsbeckLittleton, COLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbNew / unverified

#11Willie Breland IIIWiggins, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 218 lbNew / unverified

#18Hudson KurlandPortland, ORQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 193 lbNew / unverified

#20Caleb FrancoisMinnetonka, MNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#27Gabriel WilsonHouston, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#99Greg HubbardLouisville, COPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#95Ethan GurneyAdelaide, SAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

Southeast Missouri StateNon-conference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 12–40 · 94% win

HomeSep 51:00 PM EDT · model ↗2

IowaNon-conference · Kinnick Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 32% win

AwaySep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3

Bowling GreenNon-conference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 18–32 · 78% win

HomeSep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4

UtahConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 30–23 · 37% win

HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5

West VirginiaConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 67% win

HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6

BYUConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 29% win

AwayOct 910:15 PM EDT · model ↗8

ArizonaConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 35% win

AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9

Oklahoma StateConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 71% win

HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10

BaylorConference · McLane Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 44% win

AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11

CincinnatiConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 59% win

HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

UCFConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 51% win

AwayNov 206:00 PM EST · model ↗13

Kansas StateConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 46% win

HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case3 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint6 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case8 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Iowa State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The number is below a full possession and Iowa State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.

Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?