The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
Nebraska opens No. 42 nationally and No. 10 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 4.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.9 regular-season wins.
Nebraska sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 31 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Nebraska beats its 4.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMatt Rhule19–19 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 19 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#10Anthony ColandreaSt. Petersburg, FLQB3.2 pts58% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom UNLV
#11Kwazi GilmerLos Angeles, CAWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#54Brendan BlackYulee, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#65Paul MubengaBuford, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#55Tree BabaladeHyattsville, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#15Anthony Jones Jr.Las Vegas, NVEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#44Jahsear WhittingtonPhiladelphia, PADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#34Owen StoudmireCreston, OHDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#22Victor Evans IIIMiami, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Florida International
#26Dwayne McDougle IIIOakland, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#30Jasin ShiggsNewark, NJS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Towson
#24Dexter FosterPortland, ORLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#33Owen ChamblissCorona, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#43Will HawthorneAmes, IALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#87Jack WillsHudsonville, MILS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#12Daniel KaelinElkhorn, NEQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#14TJ LateefCompton, CAQB1.6 pts37% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#13Nyziah HunterSalinas, CAWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#44Luke LindenmeyerLa Vista, NETE0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#2Jacory Barney Jr.Florida City, FLWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#19Cortez Mills Jr.Homestead, FLWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#18Quinn ClarkBozeman, MTWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbReturning
#57Ashton MurphyElkhorn, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbReturning
#74Brock KnutsonScottsbluff, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning
#57Elijah PritchettColumbus, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#72Gibson PyleHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#66Grant BrixLogan, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#77Gunnar GottulaLincoln, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#78Jacob BrandlOmaha, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#58Jake PetersCedar Falls, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#51Justin EvansEast Orange, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbReturning
#70Nolan FennessyNorfolk, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#68Preston TaumuaWaipahu, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbReturning
#62Sam SledgeOmaha, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#79Shawn HammerbeckHamill, SDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning
#75Tyler KnaakCottonwood Heights, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#21Kwinten IvesBeverly, NJRB0.6 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#11Cameron LenhardtStaten Island, NYEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#98Conor ConnealyElkhorn, NEEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#55Ethan DudaOmaha, NEEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#94Jordan OchoaCastle Rock, COEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#93Kade PietrzakWest Fargo, NDEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbReturning
#97Mac MarkwaySt. Louis, MOEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#96Williams NwaneriLee's Summit, MOEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 265 lbReturning
#17Willis McGahee IVMiami, FLEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbReturning
#39David HoffkenKielDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 285 lbReturning
#99Dylan ParrottEldridge, IADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#95Gabe MooreLouisville, MSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#69Landen DavidsonBroomfield, CODT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#49Malcolm SimpsonHitchcock, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#86Mason GoldmanGretna, NEDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbReturning
#5Riley Van PoppelArgyle, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#92Sua LefotuBellflower, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#71Tyson TerryOmaha, NEDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#4Janiran BonnerEllenwood, GAWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#46Connor SchuttWahoo, NEWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbReturning
#11Demitrius BellNashville, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#84DJ Singleton Jr.Greensburg, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 150 lbReturning
#81Hayes MillerShawnee, KSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#88Jackson CarpenterLincoln, NEWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#80Jeremiah JonesMurray, KYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#26Roman ManginiMesa, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#29Carter NelsonAinsworth, NETE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#48Cayden EchternachBennington, NETE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#49Danny KingBloomington, MNTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#82Eric IngwersonPapillion, NETE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 255 lbReturning
#14Amare SandersMiami, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#10Andrew MarshallEastvale, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#23Blye HillBaltimore, MDCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbReturning
#29Braylen PrudePearland, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning
#39Bryson WebberMissouri City, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#37Donovan JonesOmaha, NECB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#25Jeremiah CharlesArlington, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#19Kahmir PrescottPhiladelphia, PACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#18Larry Tarver Jr.Miami, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#31Mario BufordDesoto, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#23Caleb BenningOmaha, NES0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#13Jamir ConnKansas City, MOS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#12Justyn RhettLas Vegas, NVS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#21Rex GuthrieLittleton, COS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#36Rowdy BauerNorfolk, NES0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#41Tanner TerchLittleton, COS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#38Thomas D'OnofrioMiddleton, WIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#15Keelan SmithLiberty, MOWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#22Isaiah MozeeKansas City, MORB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#35Mekhi NelsonWilkes-barre, PARB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#35Christian JonesElkhorn, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#40Dawson MerrittStilwell, KSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#42Derek WackerYutan, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#45Dylan RogersCypress, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#47Gage StengerOmaha, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#54Jacob BowerRancho Santa Margarita, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#56Pierce MooberryOmaha, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#32Trent UhlirBattle Creek, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#30Vincent GenatoneNorth Platte, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#9Vincent Shavers Jr.Miami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#23Conor BoothWahoo, NERB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#90John HohlLincoln, NEPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#83Archie WilsonFrankston, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#37Kamdyn KochWestminster, MDP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#91Kyle CunananPhoenix, AZPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#16Bode SoukupBlair, NEQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#71Claude MpoumaChicago, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
—Hayden AinsworthBiloxi, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#76Rex WatermanChandler, AZOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
—Dylan BerymonMonroe, LADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
—Jamari BrownChicago, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#17Larry MilesWinter Garden, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
—Maurice Purify IIOmaha, NEWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#24Nalin ScottMarietta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#41Luke SorensenOrange County, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#16Danny Odem IIIFarrell, PACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
—Jase ReynoldsElkhorn, NELB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#25Jamal RuleSalisbury, NCRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#84Michael SarikizisMelbourne, VICPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
—Kyson GanaHickman, NELS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1OhioNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 22–31 · 69% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Bowling GreenNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 18–33 · 79% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
North DakotaNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 21–32 · 72% win
HomeSep 197:15 PM EDT · model ↗4Michigan StateConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 56% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
MarylandConference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 23–29 · 63% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
IndianaConference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 32–21 · 26% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
OregonConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 17–36 · 16% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
WashingtonConference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 29–24 · 40% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
IllinoisConference · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 4M 24–30 · 37% win
AwayNov 68:00 PM EST · model ↗11
RutgersConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 27–28 · 49% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Ohio StateConference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 33–18 · 20% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
IowaConference · Kinnick Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 33% win
AwayNov 2712:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Nebraska diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Nebraska's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?