The 2026 outlook
Can this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?
Nevada opens No. 122 nationally and No. 8 of 10 in the Mountain West. The 4M baseline rates the roster 12.2 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.2 regular-season wins.
Nevada begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 114. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJeff Choate6–19 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger14 in · 21 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#12Luke DuncanOrinda, CAQB1.8 pts37% starter · 64% conf.6′6″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#85Donnie CheersMarion, ARWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Southeast Missouri State
#3Jaceon DossCompton, CAWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Towson
#72Ethan NewmanNavarre, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#59Jacob NorcrossLas Vegas, NVOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#75Jose Balver-MendozaAthens, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 287 lbTransfer infrom Montana
#4Brandon AmaniampongWoodridge, ILEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Indiana State
#95Chris KaluGilbert, AZEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Western New Mexico
#91James GillespieWoodbridge, VADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#22Jaylen WebbFort Worth, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Boise State
#0Joshua ScottAntioch, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Michigan
#7Selman BridgesTemple, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.— · 181 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#1Jeremy Naborne-OwensCorona, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#11Poasa UtuArlington, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#6Carter JonesLancaster, TXQB3.0 pts60% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 197 lbReturning
#9Marshaun BrownReno, NVWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 198 lbReturning
#71Colin BanningSpring Creek, NVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 304 lbReturning
#58Ethan LowellModesto, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 282 lbReturning
#66Henry SellardsKalispell, MTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#55Jack FosterBoise, IDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 298 lbReturning
#64Jackson RamseyReno, NVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#68Mataio AionoSparks, NVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#70Snoop Leota-AmaamaLehi, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 331 lbReturning
#73Tyler MillerReno, NVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 302 lbReturning
#76Zach CochnauerFarmington, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 306 lbReturning
#32Dylan LaBarberaRedding, CAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 248 lbReturning
#9Jack MacKinnonSarasota, FLEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#3Kameron BrownNorco, CAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 249 lbReturning
#88Keegan PereaGlendale, COEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 255 lbReturning
#92Myles WilliamsMission Hills, CAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning
#56Bryce EcholsLas Vegas, NVDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 273 lbReturning
#98David Paine Jr.Forney, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 273 lbReturning
#99Jakobus SethLakewood, WADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 291 lbReturning
#90Jason Hemphill IICypress, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 300 lbReturning
#10Logologo Va'aSanta Barbara, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 329 lbReturning
#96Tanner VaughanLas Vegas, NVDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#1Herschel TurnerRichmond, CARB0.5 pts66% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 196 lbReturning
#14Gerick RobinsonLas Vegas, NVWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 178 lbReturning
#19Mack KumpPhoenix, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbReturning
#83Carter EckReno, NVTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#16DJ AsiasiConcord, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 248 lbReturning
#82Jayden O'RourkeTweed Heads, NSWTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′9″ · 262 lbReturning
#15Kola BabalolaModesto, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#81Trace EstesMinden, NVTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#18Aiden WalkerRound Rock, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#15Bishop TurnerAltadena, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbReturning
#12Bryson SnellingChico, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#6Cooper WilsonSuquamish, WADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 186 lbReturning
#26Isaiah JordanSacramento, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#24Justin Wyatt Jr.Bakersfield, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 169 lbReturning
#28Mykel FordOklahoma City, OKDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 168 lbReturning
#13Tajean StallworthStockton, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 164 lbReturning
#17Zavien AbercrombieArlington, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 166 lbReturning
#8Daijon CalimonLawndale, CAWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#25Ky WoodsLeague City, TXRB0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 173 lbReturning
#20Cody WellsScottsdale, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#42Colson KermodeReno, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbReturning
#2EJ SmithDowney, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 243 lbReturning
#36Isaiah ReedMeridian, IDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbReturning
#30Jake SilvermanTorrance, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#0Dominic KelleyConcord, CARB0.4 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#4Carter JacksonFolsom, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#84Joe McFaddenGrapevine, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#51Cian StackReno, NVLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbReturning
#17Kaden MartiranoSalem, ORQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 214 lbReturning
#10AJ BiancoHonolulu, HIQB0.1 pts4% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbReturning
#7Gary Givens IIITampa, FLWR0.4 pts32% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#57Anthony HastingsNewport Beach, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#65Colton HoggeLincoln, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#52Elias JusticeSparks, NVOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#56Max ZuroWashoe Valley, NVOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#61Terrence JohnsonSan Jose, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#93Craig StatlerGrass Valley, CAEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#94Sam Davidson IVSeattle, WAEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#46Tanner GrayWellington, COEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#97Jeremiah FoniSan Leandro, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#30Alex GrushReno, NVWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#87Amari NashReno, NVWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#11Damien MorganModesto, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#84Deven VigueVancouver, WAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#18Don HenryHouma, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#13Isaiah WilliamsFolsom, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#86Joe StimpsonPortland, ORWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#88Perrion WilliamsEast Palo Alto, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#89Benjamin WheelerSusanville, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#80Darren SchmittVancouver, WATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#16Brock WattenbargerBakersfield, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#31Coy JonesElko, NVDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#34Cutter VorheesSan Marcos, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#25Joey Thomas IIISeattle, WADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#8Larry Turner-GoodenLos Angeles, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#33Michael HuntGainesville, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#5Zion JonesSpanaway, WADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 163 lbNew / unverified
#44Alosio MaluiaLas Vegas, NVLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#19CJ MooringHouston, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#14Jaxon CannidaMcKinney, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#5Reeve SloneRocklin, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#24Bronwyn RiosSparks, NVRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#2Janerious JacksonAtlanta, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#26Mekai SmithSan Francisco, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#99Jacob FernandezSydney, NSWPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#98Kyle NelsonReno, NVPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#95Ewan BaulchMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Western KentuckyNon-conference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 27–23 · 42% win
HomeSep 510:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Montana StateNon-conference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 39% win
HomeSep 1210:30 PM EDT · model ↗3Middle TennesseeNon-conference · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 48% win
AwaySep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Air ForceConference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 46% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
UTEPConference · Sun Bowl · 4M 25–23 · 54% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
North Dakota StateConference · Fargodome · 4M 24–27 · 42% win
AwayOct 177:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
San José StateConference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 51% win
HomeOct 245:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
UCLANon-conference · Rose Bowl · 4M 19–32 · 25% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
New MexicoConference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 39% win
HomeNov 69:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Northern IllinoisConference · Huskie Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 48% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Hawai'iConference · Mackay Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 44% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13UNLVConference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 21–33 · 26% win
AwayNov 289:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Nevada diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Nevada to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?