The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
Oklahoma opens No. 13 nationally and No. 6 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 14.4 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7.1 regular-season wins.
Oklahoma has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.
The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 2 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Oklahoma can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 7.1-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBrent Venables32–20 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger16 in · 29 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#11Trell HarrisLa Grange, ILWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#81Rocky BeersLittleton, COTE0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#3Parker LivingstoneLucas, TXWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#17Mackenzie AlleyneTustin, CAWR0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Washington State
#89Hayden HansenWeatherford, TXTE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′8″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#88Jack Van DorselaerSouthlake, TXTE0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#9Lloyd AvantHumble, TXRB0.6 pts63% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#60Caleb NittaLeesburg, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#76E'Marion HarrisLittle Rock, AROL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 318 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#72Fred HintonMiami, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
#71Peyton JosephFort Valley, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#8Bishop ThomasNew Orleans, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#94Kenny OzowaluSan Antonio, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 283 lbTransfer infrom UTSA
#9Dakoda FieldsCompton, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#37Prince IjiomaLittle Elm, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi Valley State
#18Cole SullivanPittsburgh, PALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#10John MateerLittle Elm, TXQB4.7 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbReturning
#1Isaiah Sategna IIIAustin, TXWR0.9 pts64% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#5Jer'Michael CarterKentwood, LAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbReturning
#7Jacob JordanSouthlake, TXWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#65Ace HodgesOklahoma City, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbReturning
#75Daniel AkinkunmiEast LondonOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#74Darius AfalavaLehi, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 365 lbReturning
#55Eddy Pierre-LouisTampa, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 319 lbReturning
#57Gunnar AllenAledo, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbReturning
#77Heath OzaetaSnoqualmie, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#69Jake MaikkulaSedalia, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#56Michael FasusiOmuoOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#68Owen HollenbeckMelissa, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 340 lbReturning
#70Ryan FodjeCypress, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 327 lbReturning
#64Sean HuttonLewisville, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbReturning
#6Tory BlaylockHumble, TXRB0.6 pts72% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 212 lbReturning
#21Xavier RobinsonYukon, OKRB0.6 pts67% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#34Adepoju AdebaworeKansas City, MODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#97Alex ShieldnightWagoner, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#80Bergin KysarEdmond, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#88CJ NicksonWeatherford, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 272 lbReturning
#16Danny OkoyeTulsa, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#0David StoneDel City, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 312 lbReturning
#92Jacob HenryAustin, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 280 lbReturning
#65Jayden JacksonIndianapolis, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#6Nigel Smith IIMelissa, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#44Taylor WeinBrentwood, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#90Trent WilsonWashington, DCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#42Wyatt GilmoreRogers, MNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 258 lbReturning
#82Ivan CarreonOdessa, TXWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 238 lbReturning
#80Eli MerckNorris, SCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 203 lbReturning
#14Elijah ThomasChecotah, OKWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#0Manny ChoiceLancaster, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#85Trey BrownNashville, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 178 lbReturning
#44John Locke Jr.San Antonio, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#19Kade McIntyreFremont, NETE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#22Trynae WashingtonMidwest City, OKTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbReturning
#20Casen CalmusBrentwood, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#4Courtland GuilloryHouston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#23Eli BowenCorinth, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#24Jacobe JohnsonMustang, OKDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#21Jeremiah NewcombeGilbert, AZDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 198 lbReturning
#25Michael BoganowskiJunction City, KSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbReturning
#2Omarion RobinsonLittle Rock, ARDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#22Peyton BowenDenton, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#27Preston MickensSouthlake, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#31Reed DeQuasieChoctaw, OKDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#3Reggie Powers IIICenterville, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#14Trystan HaynesMidwest City, OKDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#41Barrett TravisOklahoma City, OKLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#26Elgee WebsterFranklin, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#47James NestaHuntersville, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 233 lbReturning
#10Kip LewisCarthage, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#28Marcus JamesOklahoma City, OKLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#38Owen HeineckeTulsa, OKLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#7Taylor HeimYukon, OKLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbReturning
#29Tate SandellPort Neches, TXPK0.4 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 178 lbReturning
#25Andy BassOklahoma City, OKRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#29Gabe SawchukLittleton, CORB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 202 lbReturning
#43Grayson MillerEdmond, OKPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 193 lbReturning
#35Liam EvansMoore, OKPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 177 lbReturning
#33Preston TarpleyGunter, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbReturning
#87Jacob UlrichDacula, GAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 208 lbReturning
#49Ben AndersonCharlotte, NCLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 249 lbReturning
#50Seth FreemanMoore, OKLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 238 lbReturning
#15Jett NiuLindon, UTQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#16Whitt NewbauerRaleigh, NCQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′6″ · 237 lbReturning
#73Deacon SchmittWindsor, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#61Kenneth WermyCache, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbNew / unverified
#52Noah BestMidlothian, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 318 lbNew / unverified
#19Brian HarrisJacksonville, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#95Daniel NormanHollywood, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#98Jake KreulOrlando, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#58James CarringtonBuena Park, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#40Matthew NelsonBryant, ARDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 247 lbNew / unverified
#4Daniel OdomLos Angeles, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#2Jahsiear RogersWilmington, DEWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#13Jayden PetitNaples, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#84Xavier OkwufuluezeOwasso, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 217 lbNew / unverified
#12Ryder MixLittle Elm, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#18Tyler RuxerSaint Meinrad, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#12Derrick Johnson IIWildomar, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#33Lebron BauerAllen, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#5Markel FordMesquite, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#13Niko JandreauChandler, AZDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#15Beau JandreauChandler, AZLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#30Dane BathurstCarmel, INLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 233 lbNew / unverified
#17Jacob CurrySaint Augustine, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbNew / unverified
#11Kristan MooreSelma, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 229 lbNew / unverified
#8Bowe BentleyCelina, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#23Ben McCrearySan Antonio, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#28DeZephen WalkerKansas City, MORB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#20Jonathan Hatton Jr.Cibolo, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#27Trace RuddOverland Park, KSPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1UTEPNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 9–35 · 93% win
HomeSep 48:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
MichiganNon-conference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 24–25 · 47% win
AwaySep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
New MexicoNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 17–32 · 80% win
HomeSep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
GeorgiaConference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 20–29 · 32% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
TexasConference · Cotton Bowl · 4M 26–23 · 45% win
NeutralOct 103:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
KentuckyConference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 18–30 · 74% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Mississippi StateConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 28–21 · 65% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
South CarolinaConference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 20–28 · 66% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
FloridaConference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 25–23 · 54% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Ole MissConference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 24–26 · 54% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Texas A&MConference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 25–24 · 50% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
MissouriConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 24–24 · 49% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Oklahoma diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?