The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Utah opens No. 14 nationally and No. 2 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 14.4 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7.5 regular-season wins.
Utah has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.
The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.
The schedule grades No. 61 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Utah beats its 7.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMorgan Scalley1–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 21 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#7Braden PeganSan Juan Capistrano, CAWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Utah State
#0Kyri ShoelsLas Vegas, NVWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbTransfer infrom San José State
#89Noah BenneeHolladay, UTTE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#86Will MonneySpringville, UTTE0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#25Steve Chavez-SotoChino, CARB0.6 pts63% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom San José State
#73Cedric JeffersonTemecula, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Montana State
#56Isaiah KemaLubbock, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#11Ricky JohnsonWarner Robins, GAWR0.5 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#8Ethan DayRipon, CADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#99Jamal WallaceKansas City, MODT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#90Jireh MoeWestminster, CADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom San José State
#97Lucas SamsulaPlano, TXDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom Wyoming
#13Elijah ReedLouisville, KYCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#5James ChenaultOrlando, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom South Florida
#26Nick BrownCypress, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Lamar
#24Marcus WimberlyBauxite, ARS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#4Devon DampierPhoenix, AZQB5.0 pts94% starter · 76% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning
#10Hunter AndrewsMagnolia, TXTE0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#1Wayshawn ParkerRichmond, CARB0.7 pts72% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#12Larry SimmonsMoss Point, MSWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#2Creed WhittemoreGainesville, FLWR0.6 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbReturning
#79Alex HarrisonBountiful, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 309 lbReturning
#72Isaiah GarciaMagna, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#74Keith OlsonNapavine, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 307 lbReturning
#54Milz AsiataMelbourne, VICOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 331 lbReturning
#77Nick HallockSouth Jordan, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#64Reece ParmenterSt. George, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 319 lbReturning
#75Roger AldermanSonora, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbReturning
#62Solatoa Moea'iLaie, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbReturning
#67Soren ShinofieldGreenwood Village, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 304 lbReturning
#76Zereoue WilliamsPhoenix, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 305 lbReturning
#48Alex ClowardSalem, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 247 lbReturning
#93Kash DillonDraper, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 252 lbReturning
#15Lance HoltzclawBoston, MADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#40Paul FitzgeraldIdaho Falls, IDDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 256 lbReturning
#96Dilan BattleArlington, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#51Karson KaufusiHolladay, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#94Mike TauteoliMidvale, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#45Pupu SepulonaKalihi, HIDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 298 lbReturning
#78Taniela PepaSouth Jordan, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 297 lbReturning
#18Tobias MerriweatherVancouver, WAWR0.6 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbReturning
#5Daniel BrayFort Worth, TXRB0.5 pts57% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#3Nate JohnsonClovis, CARB0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#80Bryson BakerFresno, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#6Daidren ZippererLakeland, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#38Junior CoughlinLehi, UTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 176 lbReturning
#8Mana CarvalhoLaie, HIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning
#31Matt ClarkMesa, AZWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbReturning
#37Peyton RiceSalt Lake City, UTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#85Broderick ReddenSan Clemente, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 233 lbReturning
#33Kana'i LopesLas Vegas, NVTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 228 lbReturning
#87Mitch NielsenFarmington, UTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 232 lbReturning
#99Semi TaulangaSanta Ana, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 317 lbReturning
#44Sione MotuapuakaLas Vegas, NVTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 276 lbReturning
#9Elijah DavisWinter Haven, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#4JC HartLoachapoka, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbReturning
#11Rock CaldwellBelleville, MICB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#34Ashton OlevaoSalt Lake City, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#14Cole StandageMesa, AZS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#31Jack EvansSalt Lake City, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#23Jackson BenneeHolladay, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#32Josh SovereignChandler, AZS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbReturning
#25Manny FullerEl Paso, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#6Nate RitchieCedar Hills, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbReturning
#21Nate TilmonArlington, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbReturning
#1Rabbit EvansJacksonville, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#38Tommy NelsonSalt Lake City, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 193 lbReturning
#37Anthony HernandezPark City, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 192 lbReturning
#36Brock FonoimoanaLaie, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#0Cyrus PoluSt. George, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#83Elijah EllissFarmington, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#43Grady MarekoLeoneLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 231 lbReturning
#7Johnathan HallKaty, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#10Trey ReynoldsQueen Creek, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 231 lbReturning
#20Mateaki HeluTooele, UTRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbReturning
#92Orion PhillipsSandringham, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbReturning
#44Logan CastorCottonwood Heights, UTLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbReturning
#17Dillon CurtisMurray, UTPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#15Byrd FicklinMuskogee, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#55Kelvin ObotFruitland, IDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#55Mataalii BenjaminLehi, UTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#57Moses SparksRio Rancho, NMOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#71Rowdy PearceMidland, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#58Fameitau SialeSeattle, WADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#47Jared FredrickSalt Lake City, UTDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#46Mauka BernardSalt Lake City, UTDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#92Nicholas IgweHouston, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#16PJ TakitakiLehi, UTDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#57Stanley RaassLaie, HIDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#82Max AusmusRedondo Beach, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#81Bear FisherQueen Creek, AZTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#27Brandon HolmesTempe, AZCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#19Dylan WatersMissouri City, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#18Earl ParkerFairbanks, AKCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#29Major HinchenLa Quinta, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#12Davis AndrewsHighland, UTS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#28Luke BryantHolladay, UTS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#41LaGary MitchellMeridian, IDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#35Preston PittsLeague City, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#42Tayson ReidSpanish Fork, UTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#9Kane ArcherGreenwood, ARQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#13Michael JohnsonEllenwood, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#21LaMarcus BellPortland, ORRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#63Tanner CragunFrisco, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1IdahoNon-conference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 12–41 · 95% win
HomeSep 39:00 PM EDT · model ↗2ArkansasNon-conference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 22–34 · 74% win
HomeSep 1210:15 PM EDT · model ↗3
Utah StateNon-conference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 19–35 · 82% win
HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Iowa StateConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 30–23 · 64% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
KansasConference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 22–33 · 74% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
ColoradoConference · Folsom Field · 4M 31–21 · 71% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
HoustonConference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 71% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
CincinnatiConference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 31–24 · 67% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
BYUConference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 58% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
ArizonaConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 55% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
TCUConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 56% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
West VirginiaConference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 17–34 · 83% win
HomeNov 279:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint8 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case10 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Utah diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?