The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
Rice opens No. 126 nationally and No. 13 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 14.5 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.2 regular-season wins.
Rice begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 72 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Rice beats its 3.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachScott Abell5–8 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger20 in · 22 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#11Jacurri BrownValdosta, GAQB1.3 pts24% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#13Max MoseyHarrisburg, PAWR0.7 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#60Leo BluhmSaint Paul, MNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Yale
#68Scott BeckerBriarcliff Manor, NYOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom Princeton
#7AJ BrownMarietta, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#25Caden VerMaasOmaha, NEDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#5Davis LaneLynchburg, VAWR0.4 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#7Barry Jackson Jr.Ellenwood, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#6Ben GriceAtlanta, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#9Preston ZinterNorth Andover, MATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 254 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#12Jamir BenjaminLansing, MICB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#10Kyren CondollFontana, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#1Zach CodyCoppell, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 172 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#3Koa AkuiHilo, HIS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#13Tariq MayBaltimore, MDDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 244 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Washington
#54Austin HarnetiauxSeattle, WALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbTransfer infrom Nevada
#29Charlie DurkinAkron, OHP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Kent State
#51Phoenix DerichsweilerDallas, TXLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 216 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#4Gael OchoaEl Paso, TXQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom UNLV
#2Lucas ScheerhornSpring, TXQB1.9 pts46% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#15Patrick Crayton Jr.Lewisville, TXQB1.0 pts26% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 201 lbReturning
#81Braylen WalkerSulphur, LAWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbReturning
#10Quinton JacksonFort Worth, TXRB0.7 pts81% role · 76% conf.5′7″ · 175 lbReturning
#86James FalkSpringfield, PATE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning
#0Payton MatthewsSan Antonio, TXWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#88Keenan Arcega-WhitesideSpartanburg, SCWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 209 lbReturning
#71Cole PrincipeBrea, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#59Colter AlberdingAllen, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#62Cullen WittHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 291 lbReturning
#78Erben BirkhoffKaty, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 321 lbReturning
#77Ian BothwellFort Worth, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#73Justin MichaelisPark City, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 321 lbReturning
#53Luke MillerRound Rock, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 304 lbReturning
#67Luke NeedhamGermantown, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#56Nate BledsoeCollierville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#50Patrick ValentWarren, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
#58Peyton FarmerFresno, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#28D'Andre Hardeman Jr.Houston, TXRB0.6 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 197 lbReturning
#2Jo ChavezFolsom, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 194 lbReturning
#57Aquantis ClemmonsColumbus, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 286 lbReturning
#94Braden BaysBoerne, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 269 lbReturning
#16Chibby NwajuakuCypress, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 246 lbReturning
#11Christopher Clark-JolivetHouston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbReturning
#91DD OliverBossier City, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#96Dillan BottsHouston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 286 lbReturning
#8Joseph MutomboFort Worth, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 271 lbReturning
#92Luca AkirtavaFrisco, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 267 lbReturning
#15Matthew AribisalaCedar Hill, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 308 lbReturning
#98Robert RooksPetaluma, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 291 lbReturning
#26Tyvonn ByarsMontgomery, TXRB0.5 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 217 lbReturning
#43Chris BruceBuda, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbReturning
#8Colin LeaheyMagnolia, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#83Jackson RanucciHouston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#19Jordan ClarkManor, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning
#24Larry DeBose IVConroe, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 168 lbReturning
#18Owen CarterCypress, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#25Rhys PhillipsKaty, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 234 lbReturning
#84Will SwartzHuffman, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#5Jerrick HarperSilsbee, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning
#18Ahran OgborSpring, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#20Bailey FletcherSan Antonio, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#0Daveon HookCibolo, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#23Michael Amey IIIMissouri City, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#42DeReyon JenkinsSlidell, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 224 lbReturning
#30Carson MorganBentonville, ARRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#14Beau BartonVan, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#55CJ WittenWestlake, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#44Cooper KingStratford, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 211 lbReturning
#34Kaleb BlantonManvel, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#28Enock GotaHouston, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 209 lbReturning
#70Bennett EivensAustin, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#74Clay MitchellSinton, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#57Leyonte ChandlerEuless, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#76Marcus Page Jr.Forney, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 307 lbNew / unverified
#95Brock ReddicWhite Oak, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#97Chris KnaulsFrisco, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 272 lbNew / unverified
#43Ian HarrellHuntsville, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#21JD SingletaryMiddletown, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
#93Quincy TchikouCypress, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 253 lbNew / unverified
#88Tyler LavallierRoyalty, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#20Fisher LeftwichMount Airy, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#29Jai Jacobs-FordBlytheville, ARWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#22Michael SiffordNewton, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 164 lbNew / unverified
#89Preston JacksonForney, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#21Sawyer RiceDuncan, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#82Colten ColeSulphur, OKTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#87Jackson DeAtleyLake Jackson, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 258 lbNew / unverified
#17Jake RendaPrinceton, NJTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#35Elijah BrownBaytown, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#24Jordan MitchellMissouri City, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#4Tariq WatsonGretna, LACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#36Austin LeeMissouri City, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#6Dylan StephensDallas, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#32Seth BrownValdosta, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#41Preston HealyFrisco, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 236 lbNew / unverified
#56Seth ClarkeLawrence Township, NJDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#40Jayden CupittMansfield, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
#33Stone CombsPark City, UTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#14Ayden WilhelmLee's Summit, MOQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#27Dionne SimsHumble, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#33Justin PowellLyons, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#49Tommy BauchieroBrentwood, TNPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#52Morrow EvansHouston, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Houston ChristianNon-conference · Rice Stadium · 4M 17–34 · 83% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Notre DameNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 10–41 · 4% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Western MichiganNon-conference · Rice Stadium · 4M 28–21 · 33% win
HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Fresno StateNon-conference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 28% win
AwaySep 2610:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
UTSAConference · Rice Stadium · 4M 31–20 · 28% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
East CarolinaConference · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 4M 18–32 · 21% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
TulsaConference · Rice Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 45% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Florida AtlanticConference · FAU Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 33% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
North TexasConference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 20–33 · 24% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
TulaneConference · Rice Stadium · 4M 30–21 · 29% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
TempleConference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 22–29 · 35% win
AwayNov 197:30 PM EST · model ↗13
ArmyConference · Rice Stadium · 4M 29–22 · 36% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint3 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case5 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Rice diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Rice to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?