Rutgers 2026 Preview — No. 71 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?

Rutgers opens No. 64 nationally and No. 15 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 0.7 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5 regular-season wins.

Rutgers sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.

There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.

The schedule grades No. 40 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Rutgers beats its 5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachGreg Schiano28–35 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger15 in · 15 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback63

Offensive line51

Receivers47

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InKameron AnthonyTE · from Ball State · 3★

InDylan LonerganQB · from Boston College · 3★

InMalachi DavisEDGE · from Toledo · 3★

InBradlee JonesCB · from The Citadel · 3★

InKevyn HumesCB · from Maryland · 3★

InZahmir DawudCB · from Villanova · 3★

InJ'Dan BurnettEDGE · from Tulsa · 3★

InTy MorrisLB · from Rice · 3★

InEverett SmallOT · from Eastern Michigan · 3★

InClay TheveninRB · from Louisiana Tech · 3★

InSean AllisonLB · from Drake · 3★

InRondo PorterDL · from App State · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBDylan Lonergan4.8 pts94% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + portal role + QB starter probability

RBAntwan Raymond0.9 pts94% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

WRKJ Duff0.9 pts62% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRBen Black0.7 pts51% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

RBClay Thevenin0.6 pts68% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + portal role

OLChris Vigna0.6 pts44% expected role · roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#12Dylan LonerganSnellville, GAQB4.8 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Boston College

#9Clay TheveninFort Lauderdale, FLRB0.6 pts68% role · 76% conf.5′8″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech

#85Kameron AnthonyFishers, INTE0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Ball State

#54Everett SmallHamilton, ONOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Michigan

#57Isaiah CookWillingboro, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Delaware State

#94J'Dan BurnettFort Worth, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa

#91Jaedin LeeChester, VADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Maine

#11Malachi DavisHolt, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Toledo

#99Rondo PorterColumbia, SCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom App State

#5Bradlee JonesGreenwood, SCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom The Citadel

#4Kevyn HumesBowie, MDDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Maryland

#12Zahmir DawudNorth Brunswick, NJDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Villanova

#10Ty MorrisHouston, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Rice

#3Antwan RaymondMontreal, PQRB0.9 pts94% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning

#8KJ DuffRiverhead, NYWR0.9 pts62% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbReturning

#2Ben BlackCharlotte, NCWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#67Chris VignaGlen Ridge, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning

#76Dantae ChinWeston, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning

#61Emir StinettePhiladelphia, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 335 lbReturning

#53Hank ZilinskasEnglewood, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#72Jayden ElijahMatawan, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbReturning

#58Joseph LakatosSouth River, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbReturning

#64Joshua BlackstonBaltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning

#79Justin CesaireOrange, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning

#77Kenny JonesDelran, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning

#69Kwabena AsamoahPickerington, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning

#78Miron GurmanRochester, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbReturning

#74Moshood GiwaBrooklyn, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning

#55Nick OliveiraMullica Hill, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning

#51Raymond GiacobbeRahway, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning

#75Raynor AndrewsNassauOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning

#68Ryder LangsdaleRidgewood, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 295 lbReturning

#73Terrence SalamiWillingboro, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning

#56Tyler NeedhamNewton, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning

#56Anthony MoralesWhippany, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 250 lbReturning

#98Braxton KyleSuwanee, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning

#47Canaan EdwardsAtlanta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning

#42DJ AllenLeo, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 275 lbReturning

#0Doug Blue-EliPaulsboro, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#30Elijah KingGahanna, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning

#90Farell GnagoMontreal, PQDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning

#95Henry Hughes Jr.Tampa, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning

#88Jyon SimonJacksonville, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbReturning

#96Keshon GriffinSicklerville, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning

#87Monte KeenerLinden, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbReturning

#48Raedyn BruensMartinsville, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbReturning

#14RJ Johnson Jr.Bear, DEDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning

#8Wydeek Collier-JohnsonPhiladelphia, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 225 lbReturning

#55Zaire AngoyIrvington, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#83Dino KaliakmanisAntioch, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#7Dylan BraithwaiteValley Stream, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning

#1Famah TourePleasantville, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning

#4Jourdin HoustonBronx, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#80Michael Thomas IIIBarnegat, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning

#14Sah'nye DegraffenreidtAtlantic City, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning

#39Salomon EaleyPiscataway, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning

#25Trent OsbornMount Laurel, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning

#5Vernon Allen IIIBaltimore, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#24Ben RothhaarNorwalk, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning

#82Jackson GisterBaltimore, MDTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning

#11Logan BlakeFrenchtown, NJTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbReturning

#88Mike HigginsHo-Ho-Kus, NJTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning

#84Ryan BayoumyMonroe Township, NJTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning

#28Cannon MarshallRolesville, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#20Chris JoinesWinston-Salem, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#19Davoun FuseWashington, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning

#9DK GilleyJacksonville, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning

#26Isaiah CrumplerSimpson, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#16Jesse OfurieSalem, MADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning

#1Kaj SandersNewark, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#7Kevin LevyWest Palm Beach, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#3Latrell NoelNaples, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning

#22Michael ClaytonWarner Robins, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#34Noah ShawAsheville, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#27Sage ClawgesWestover, WVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning

#29Sebastian JusmaTeaneck, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning

#45Shawn PurcellManville, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning

#24Steven MurrayGibsonville, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#44Tariq HayerPG County, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#15Zilan WilliamsMartinsburg, WVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#20Ja'shon BenjaminPahokee, FLRB0.4 pts54% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning

#6Abram WrightJacksonville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning

#13DJ McClaryJersey City, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning

#23Isaiah DeloatchDurham, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning

#50Joe NwachukwuSomerset, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning

#33John InsingaGreenwich, CTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning

#36Kamar ArchieEwing, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning

#59Liam GilmoreMedford, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning

#17MJ JohnsonDetroit, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning

#2Moses WalkerStaten Island, NYLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#23Edd GuerrierPort Charlotte, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 195 lbReturning

#26Terrell MitchellSomerville, NJRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 200 lbReturning

#28Xavier WilliamsWest Orange, NJRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 205 lbReturning

#29Dane PizzaroBensalem, PAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning

#93Jack ScullionMagherafeltPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning

#21Riley McCannGillette, NJPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning

#94Jakob AndersonMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning

#49Evan WardRutherford, NJLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning

#68Matthew MurriFair Lawn, NJLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#99Michael O'ConnorMiddletown, NJLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning

#46Sammy El HadidiBridgewater, NJLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#44Jai PatelMonmouth Junction, NJPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning

#10AJ SuracePennington, NJQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning

#15Rocco RainoneGlen Cove, NYQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#6Sean AshenfelderSt. Johns, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#70Cameron GreeneSicklerville, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbNew / unverified

#66Donovan JohnsonFayetteville, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#71Jared SmithStockbridge, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbNew / unverified

#60Logan AnthonyLehighton, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#62Tyler DuellWest Chester, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#92Jermaine PolkToledo, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified

#93Reece BeckPonte Vedra Beach, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#97Rinaldo Callaway IIIMacon, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#0Dyzier CarterLouisa, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#13Elias CokeHarrisburg, PAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#89Brady OwensArlington, VATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#81DJ HowertonKernersville, NCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#32Brandon MurrayHaymarket, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#21Devonte AndersonOrlando, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#25Jamareis ConyersSt. Petersburg, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#18Messiah TilsonRockford, ILDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#37RJ WortmanAvenel, NJDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#31Sebastian CruzFleming Island, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#38Joey KopecNorthfield, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#17Xavier StearnAmbler, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′6″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#22Michael Dukes IIIEastpointe, MIRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

MassachusettsNon-conference · SHI Stadium · 4M 16–39 · 89% win

HomeSep 36:00 PM EDT · model ↗2

Boston CollegeNon-conference · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 4M 30–26 · 57% win

AwaySep 117:30 PM EDT · model ↗3

USCConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 33–23 · 31% win

HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4

HowardNon-conference · SHI Stadium · 4M 13–42 · 94% win

HomeSep 257:00 PM EDT · model ↗5

IndianaConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 35–20 · 21% win

HomeOct 38:00 PM EDT · model ↗7

MarylandConference · SECU Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 48% win

AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8

NorthwesternConference · Ryan Field · 4M 25–29 · 40% win

AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9

MichiganConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 31–24 · 35% win

HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10

WisconsinConference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 43% win

AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11

NebraskaConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 27–28 · 51% win

HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

Penn StateConference · Beaver Stadium · 4M 21–34 · 25% win

AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13

Michigan StateConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 25–30 · 62% win

HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case3 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint5 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case7 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Rutgers diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The number is below a full possession and Rutgers's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.

Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?