Tulane 2026 Preview — No. 60 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?

Tulane opens No. 63 nationally and No. 3 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 0.9 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.9 regular-season wins.

Tulane sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.

There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.

The schedule grades No. 76 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Tulane beats its 6.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachWill Hall14–30 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Jon Sumrall

Portal ledger20 in · 27 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback53

Offensive line51

Receivers46

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InJaylin LucasRB · from Florida State · 3★

InDJ Dugar Jr.RB · from Oklahoma State · 3★

InJustin AguCB · from Louisville · 3★

InKajuan BanksCB · from South Florida · 3★

InGavin MarksIOL · from Mercer · 3★

InGabe DanielsWR · from Syracuse · 3★

InBredell RichardsonWR · from UCF · 3★

InEd Smith IVDL · from South Alabama · 3★

InVance BolyardTE · from Duke · 3★

InDalton HughesLB · from South Alabama · 3★

InDestyn HillWR · from LSU · 4★

InJordan McallisterEDGE · from New Hampshire

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBZeon Chriss-Gremillion4.7 pts88% starter · usage + PPA + portal role + QB starter probability

WRAnthony Brown-Stephens0.7 pts56% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRZycarl Lewis Jr.0.7 pts50% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRGarrett Mmahat0.7 pts47% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

TEDawson Johnson0.6 pts44% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

OLColin O'Carroll0.6 pts44% expected role · roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#9Zeon Chriss-GremillionBaton Rouge, LAQB4.7 pts88% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Houston

#19Dawson JohnsonDenver, COTE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion

#60Gavin MarksWendell, NCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 297 lbTransfer infrom Mercer

#71Riley RushingMilton, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom Mars Hill

#58Ryan MickowBroward County, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 311 lbTransfer infrom Boston College

#15Jordan McAllisterSouth Orange, NJDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 254 lbTransfer infrom New Hampshire

#45Ed Smith IVTuscaloosa, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama

#51Reshad SterlingLutcher, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 271 lbTransfer infrom Houston

#6Johnnie DanielsCrystal Springs, MSRB0.4 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State

#8Bredell RichardsonTampa, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom UCF

#2Destyn HillAlgiers, LAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom LSU

#85Gabe DanielsAtlanta, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse

#80Vance BolyardGreensboro, NCTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Duke

#22Justin AguPrairieville, LACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Louisville

#21Macho StevensonShreveport, LACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech

#13Kajuan BanksTallahassee, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#12Jaylin LucasHouma, LARB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 174 lbTransfer infrom Florida State

#11Dalton HughesTupelo, MSLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 226 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama

#21DJ DugarLeander, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State

#96Jackson CourvilleCenterville, OHPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State

#5Anthony Brown-StephensSpringfield, OHWR0.7 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 178 lbReturning

#1Zycarl Lewis Jr.Venice, FLWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning

#16Garrett MmahatNew Orleans, LAWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbReturning

#75Colin O'CarrollTampa, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 291 lbReturning

#77Darion ReedFort Worth, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 314 lbReturning

#55Dominic StewardAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbReturning

#73Elijah BakerHattiesburg, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning

#76Gresham PerryLafayette, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 322 lbReturning

#74Jaxon DucreNew Orleans, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 252 lbReturning

#51John Bock IIFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 316 lbReturning

#70Juelz BaptisteNew Orleans, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 323 lbReturning

#61Leo WulffraatAustin, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#72Mitch HodnettMonroe, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 294 lbReturning

#78Reese BakerMadison, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 292 lbReturning

#68Robbie PizzolatoMetairie, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 311 lbReturning

#52Tristen FortenberryPascagoula, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning

#25Jamauri McClureGoshen, ALRB0.6 pts65% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 212 lbReturning

#10Gerrod HendersonSpring, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 267 lbReturning

#48Jah'rie GarnerNew Orleans, LADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 234 lbReturning

#89Miles SmithNaples, FLDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 206 lbReturning

#40Warren Roberts Jr.New Orleans, LADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 219 lbReturning

#92Armondous CooleyShubuta, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning

#94Derrick Shepard Jr.Dayton, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 313 lbReturning

#96Geordan GuidryRuston, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 282 lbReturning

#53Jack StiversAtlanta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 276 lbReturning

#99Josh LewisGonzales, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning

#97Nikolas AlstonBirmingham, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning

#98PaLanding DrammehHoover, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 292 lbReturning

#15Antwaun ParhamPompano Beach, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 214 lbReturning

#37Cash SemonzaMission Viejo, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 178 lbReturning

#39John BartonLafayette, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 214 lbReturning

#10Kellen TasbyPlano, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 229 lbReturning

#83Seth GaleBaton Rouge, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 171 lbReturning

#26Walker DavisDallas, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#87Cameron RobertsOpa Locka, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 237 lbReturning

#89DJ CiceroPalos Verdes Estates, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 226 lbReturning

#86Gabe LovornMedina, TNTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 241 lbReturning

#22Jakson JudgeJacksonville, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 209 lbReturning

#13Ty ThompsonGilbert, AZTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning

#14Armani CargoMarrero, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbReturning

#5E'zaiah ShineDaytona Beach, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbReturning

#22LJ GreenMontgomery, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 172 lbReturning

#0Shaun NicholasHarvey, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 196 lbReturning

#31Carson KleinAvon, CTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbReturning

#27Chase GreenLargo, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning

#26Dorion JacksonWetumpka, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 211 lbReturning

#1Jack TchienchouAtlanta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 192 lbReturning

#7Kevin Adams IIIDestrehan, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning

#6Josh SimsNashville, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning

#30Joshua MooreLeague City, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbReturning

#24Michael IgbinogheneTrussville, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 198 lbReturning

#3TJ SmithArlington, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbReturning

#17Oliver Mitchell Jr.New Orleans, LAWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning

#0Maurice TurnerNicholls, GARB0.4 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 196 lbReturning

#4Chris RodgersCorinth, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning

#2Dickson AguGeismar, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 223 lbReturning

#43Grayson McPhersonAurora, COLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 221 lbReturning

#44Jean Claude Joseph IIICovington, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 223 lbReturning

#42Makai WilliamsCibolo, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 231 lbReturning

#20Gabe MocekLafayette, LARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 221 lbReturning

#35Cooper HelmkeMetairie, LAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbReturning

#46Zach MariniSeattle, WAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 172 lbReturning

#34William HudlowNew Orleans, LAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning

#57Jason ArredondoLas Vegas, NVLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 219 lbReturning

#7Cade ScottBrandenburg, KYQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 216 lbReturning

#14Dagan BrunoNew Orleans, LAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#4Jay BeamonCleveland, MSQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 212 lbReturning

#3Kadin SemonzaHuntington Beach, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#62Aiden MartinBerryhill, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbNew / unverified

#59Andre Amos Jr.Germantown, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 335 lbNew / unverified

#65Brady WyattDallas, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#67Tylan GeorgeWest Monroe, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 319 lbNew / unverified

#58Cayden DeesMontgomery, ALDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 259 lbNew / unverified

#69AJ WestfieldCleveland, TNDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified

#91Jackson NorwoodMarrero, LADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbNew / unverified

#90Jordyn CritesFriendswood, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 274 lbNew / unverified

#55Nick WitherspoonTuscaloosa, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 345 lbNew / unverified

#81Deuce Hadley Jr.Pompano Beach, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 173 lbNew / unverified

#82Keyshaun ColemanMadison, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#88Colby SimpsonWestlake Village, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 247 lbNew / unverified

#38Evan MickowFort Lauderdale, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 216 lbNew / unverified

#12Anthony RogersLaurel, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 176 lbNew / unverified

#36Lawrence MotonKathleen, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 186 lbNew / unverified

#20Myrone JeanLake Wales, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 186 lbNew / unverified

#23Orion SaundersConcord, MADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 187 lbNew / unverified

#30Syre GilmoreNew Orleans, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#41Chan LumpkinReynolds, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbNew / unverified

#28Dylan BrasherDripping Springs, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 218 lbNew / unverified

#54Jeffrey CurtisRiver Ridge, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 199 lbNew / unverified

#47Zach DreschCheshire, CTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 222 lbNew / unverified

#23Holt TeichmanHouston, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 173 lbNew / unverified

#11Trace JohnsonLaguna Niguel, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbNew / unverified

#24Jake RandleNew Orleans, LARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 193 lbNew / unverified

#32Jordan WestNew Orleans, LARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 192 lbNew / unverified

#33Brooks MooreAdel, GAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbNew / unverified

#38John AllenMiami, FLP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 189 lbNew / unverified

#63Graham CoadyMilton, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

DukeNon-conference · Wallace Wade Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 42% win

AwaySep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2

South AlabamaNon-conference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 22–32 · 71% win

HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3

Kansas StateNon-conference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 34% win

AwaySep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4

Southern MissNon-conference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 69% win

HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6

ArmyConference · Michie Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 52% win

AwayOct 1012:00 PM EDT · model ↗7

MemphisConference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 60% win

HomeOct 167:30 PM EDT · model ↗8

UTSAConference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 54% win

HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9

CharlotteConference · Jerry Richardson Stadium · 4M 31–19 · 76% win

AwayOct 307:00 PM EDT · model ↗10

TulsaConference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 69% win

HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11

RiceConference · Rice Stadium · 4M 30–21 · 71% win

AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

North TexasConference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 26–29 · 56% win

HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13

South FloridaConference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 38% win

AwayNov 2712:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case5 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint7 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case9 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Tulane diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The number is below a full possession and Tulane's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.

Pass or fade when

The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.

Watch first

Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.

Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?