The 2026 outlook
Can this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?
Sam Houston opens No. 135 nationally and No. 10 of 10 in the CUSA. The 4M baseline rates the roster 18.9 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.2 regular-season wins.
Sam Houston starts in the development tier. The preseason prior needs evidence before moving higher, but young or rebuilt teams can improve faster than the market adjusts. September performance matters more here than it does for an established contender.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 108 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Sam Houston beats its 3.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachPhil Longo2–10 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger20 in · 15 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#87Max WhisnerKansas City, MOTE0.5 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#54Brock StukesChesapeake, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#71Denell Nix Jr.Toledo, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom App State
#75Elijah CollinsFort Myers, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina
#73Josiah ChenaultCanton, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Kennesaw State
#19Jayden FryRaleigh, NCDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#28Zion TaylorMissouri City, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Houston
#99Dimitry NicolasMiami, FLDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#92Jarra AndersonKaty, TXDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#98Justin TerrellRome, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#17Christian ZacharySt. Matthews, SCWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#5Kyan Berry-JohnsonChicago, ILWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#89Brock KuhlLorena, TXTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#7Caesar MageeNew Orleans, LACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Northwestern State
#4Ishmel AtkinsGreensboro, NCCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Elon
#33Brian Bates Jr.Centreville, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Delaware State
#12Elijah GrovesCross Plains, TNLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#18Stacy BeyFontana, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Arizona
#94Sam CarpenterFoxborough, MAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#8Landyn LockeRockwall, TXQB4.3 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#7Grady O'NeillPrior Lake, MNWR0.7 pts60% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#2Chris ReedOrlando, FLWR0.7 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#10Landan BrownDenton, TXRB0.7 pts70% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#22Alton McCaskillConroe, TXRB0.6 pts78% role · 76% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#1Aviyon Smith-MackSt. Petersburg, FLWR0.6 pts58% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbReturning
#0Darrick Bledsoe IIIArlington, TXWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#3Tim Burns Jr.Miami, FLWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#52Cam ToddRaleigh, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#62Carter BuchheitFort Myers, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#74Graceson SpannMelissa, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#67Isaac SohnAledo, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#56Jeremiah EdmondFort Myers, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#68Logan CahillLong Island, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#57Zo'Maryon BryanBay City, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#16Brody HendersonJenks, OKDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#14Bryen SpauldingSan Diego, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#91Caius CoyJarrell, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#48Chauncey ChidiKumasiDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#10Darien JacksonLos Angeles, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbReturning
#97Dylan FrazierMckinney, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbReturning
#95She'Fon BoydAndrews, SCDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 300 lbReturning
#84Matthew TatumHuntsville, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbReturning
#80Terrence Guillory IIHouston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#82Cooper StevensCypress, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#14London DeyonGalveston, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#20Dravon WilsonNew Caney, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#17Octavius HendersonNashville, TNCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#30Braylen WorthamCalvert, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#9Jace ArnoldDouglasville, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#5Jalyn StanfordTulsa, OKS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#29Lyric SmithClarendon, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#13Railyn AdamsNewton, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#8Tyler BaileyProsper, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#42Ca'lub HollowayFort Worth, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbReturning
#40Cole WorthingtonLeague City, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#21Dean FordHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#45Eli WallaceDallas, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#26Tokyo GordonEatonville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#25Ah'Marion Gaines-SmithFresno, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#6Jerrian Parker Jr.Orlando, FLRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#81Nico OttomanelliHarrington Park, NJPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#83Tate RyanThe Woodlands, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#46Carson WhitingtonEl Campo, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbReturning
#15DJ BaileyDesoto, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#12Kamari MaxwellSavannah, GAWR0.4 pts26% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#4Alijah CasonMidlothian, TXWR0.3 pts29% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#80Matt SmithNeedham, MATE0.3 pts23% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#58Carter KadowMiddleton, WIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#66Jimmy WallsPittsburg, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#63Joe WarrenGreenwood, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#72Myles JosephVinton, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#76Nathan McClellandRichland, WAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#50Tr'e WilliamsHuntsville, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#15Josh Alexander-FeltonOrlando, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#93Errol West Jr.Little Rock, ARDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#90Uzziah WarmateDenton, TXDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#11Kaleb MitchellDesoto, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#19Konner DandridgeCypress, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#13Ty SextonKaty, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#85Cade HaysLubbock, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#86Jack MerrymanMontgomery, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#43Evan OdomGolden Gate, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#35Jabaric SullivanThe Woodlands, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#39Joseph OparaSugar Land, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#34Julian MayfieldDallas, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#2Justin CottrellWest Columbia, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#38O'Kece BattleCocoa, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#16Aaron EdwardsOklahoma City, OKS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#38Cameron FranklinSweeny, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#11CJ JunePrince George County, MDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#6Jaylon JonesFresno, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#36Marcus Bourda Jr.Humble, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#27Robert McFarlandHouston, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#32Kade HoustonMontgomery, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#23Mike King Jr.Racine, WILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#44Ray ChathamHouston, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#37Ryan MalloryRichmond, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#9Brett HollowayMelissa, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#16Mason HoltzclawBelton, SCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#18Shaan PatelFulshear, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#24Kaden WinkfieldAledo, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#20MJ DowdyWinder, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#43Nick NormanHouston, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#31Cal JosephMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#49Cameron McCullochHouston, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#47Victor GamboaCypress, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1TroyNon-conference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 21–30 · 30% win
AwaySep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
TulsaNon-conference · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 4M 28–22 · 38% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
NichollsNon-conference · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 70% win
HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4Texas TechNon-conference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 9–40 · 4% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
LibertyConference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 21–32 · 26% win
AwayOct 87:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Western KentuckyConference · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 4M 30–21 · 31% win
HomeOct 148:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
New Mexico StateConference · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 46% win
HomeOct 218:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Missouri StateConference · Plaster Sports Complex · 4M 22–31 · 32% win
AwayOct 278:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
Jacksonville StateConference · AmFirst Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 26% win
AwayNov 77:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Kennesaw StateConference · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 38% win
HomeNov 142:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Middle TennesseeConference · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 47% win
HomeNov 212:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Florida InternationalConference · Pitbull Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 34% win
AwayNov 282:00 PM EST · model ↗Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint3 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case5 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Sam Houston diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Sam Houston to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team turn a manageable schedule into a real Conference USA title path?