The 2026 outlook
Can this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?
UTEP opens No. 134 nationally and No. 10 of 10 in the Mountain West. The 4M baseline rates the roster 16.7 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.3 regular-season wins.
UTEP starts in the development tier. The preseason prior needs evidence before moving higher, but young or rebuilt teams can improve faster than the market adjusts. September performance matters more here than it does for an established contender.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 82 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether UTEP beats its 3.3-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachScotty Walden5–19 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger21 in · 20 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#1EJ Colson Jr.Byron, GAQB3.2 pts59% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Incarnate Word
#12Raymond Moore IIIBaltimore, MDQB2.0 pts40% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Morgan State
#56Brian Williams Jr.Atlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Jackson State
#52Jackson BradleyKnoxville, TNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Cornell
#54Jaymon LambDallas, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 273 lbTransfer infrom North Texas
#55Omoruyi Aliu-OtokitiOrlando, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Livingstone
#11Royal CapellCibolo, TXWR0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#19Sterling MilesWest Bloomfield, MIDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Michigan
#99Elijah FieldsHouston, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Stephen F. Austin
#98Preston HickeyMandeville, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Northwestern State
#32Lamar SperlingAkron, OHRB0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#0Tavorus JonesEl Paso, TXRB0.4 pts41% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#23Kaleb MilesProsper, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom East Texas A&M
#12Donavan HowardDanville, VAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Virginia State
#16Esteban GuillorySan Antonio, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Western Illinois
#27LaTristan ThompsonMount Pleasant, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#13Isaiah BogertyStafford, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Texas Southern
#48Cade HechterSydney, NSWPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom UT Martin
#33Parker CushingHouston, TXPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Peru State
#47Brady BraunIndianapolis, INP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb
#46Carson LoebCypress, TXLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Texas-Permian Basin
#82Judah EzinwaFontana, CATE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#7Jaylan BrownNacogdoches, TXWR0.6 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#57Craig WydraEl Paso, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#76Diego De La CruzMonterreyOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#75Juan Camacho Jr.El Paso, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbReturning
#70Maddox HuberHamshire, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbReturning
#71Preston PerkinsAustin, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 270 lbReturning
#78Ryder SlatonMelissa, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 280 lbReturning
#73Tyler RobertsCorpus Christi, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 314 lbReturning
#18Rafeald CampbellArlington, TXWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#14Marcus TorresEl Paso, TXWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#6Ekow TaylorKeller, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbReturning
#40Jaxon SmithPrague, OKDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 225 lbReturning
#35Kofi Taylor-BarrocksLondonDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#25Royce WilsonHouston, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#90Ashton CokerKaty, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#11Derek BurnsDallas, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 254 lbReturning
#94Jimmy LeonTucson, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#55Leander ParrishMesquite, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#44Oryend FisherGeorgetown, KYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbReturning
#3Shakaun BowserMesa, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#16Mason FergusonFort Worth, TXWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#24CJ SimonTuttle, OKWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbReturning
#3Jaden SmithLoganville, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#13Nik HenrySeguin, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 155 lbReturning
#25Zo HillDenton, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbReturning
#4Cash CheeksColorado Springs, COTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 235 lbReturning
#83Jamal FrilotHouston, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#26Darien FantroyKilleen, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#0Justin ContentHoschton, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#5TJ TillmanAmarillo, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbReturning
#30Allen GantLubbock, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#14Chace BiddleGarland, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#17Darnell WilliamsTexarkana, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#24Jaime GuerreroEl Paso, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#33Josiah JonesChicago, ILS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#7Kode LoweColeman, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#2Xavier SmithAtlanta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#29Dylan Brown-TurnerDallas, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#20Grant StewartHouston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbReturning
#8Shay SmithEl Paso, TXLB0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#42Copelin WindfontBarrett Station, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#4Garrett HawkinsSevierville, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 227 lbReturning
#10Jayden WilsonEl Paso, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbReturning
#45Justin LeeRound Rock, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#41Vashon Brunswick IIGarland, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#6Elijah McCoyMidland, TXRB0.4 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Kam ThomasBirmingham, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 184 lbReturning
#91Carlos ArreolaHometown not listedPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#49Ian HallHouston, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#10Chad WarnerCibolo, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#5Carver CheeksColorado Springs, COWR0.6 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#62Eddie Lartigue Jr.Houston, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#51Eric Sandoval AraujoEl Paso, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 263 lbNew / unverified
#74Grayson JohnsonWinston-Salem, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′9″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#50Isaiah MaumalangaDallas, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#67Jayden TrappColumbus, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#79Pryce McClanahanCibolo, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 323 lbNew / unverified
#58Rashad SmithBirmingham, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#53Tripp TownsendDallas, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#77Wesley Dallao-KubikColleyville, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#21Dycin DavisAbilene, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#31Joshua ShawAllen, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#96Caynan JamesFort Worth, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 284 lbNew / unverified
#95DAdrian Tinney-AndersonGoliad, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#93Jerrell BrasherGadsden, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#92Justin RobertsSpring Branch, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#97Shaun McDowellRichmond, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 283 lbNew / unverified
#88Truth HolmesSulphur Springs, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 293 lbNew / unverified
#17Carmelo TaylorRoanoke, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 169 lbNew / unverified
#80Jacaleb JohnsonSilsbee, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#86JD WallaceHouston, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#81Jeremiah NashStockton, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#88Benny OkwuraHouston, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#87Chance BellSan Diego, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#85Jackson StonerRockwall, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 258 lbNew / unverified
#89Johan CamachoEl Paso, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbNew / unverified
#18Decorian ThompsonMount Pleasant, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#28Tylen HockettMansfield, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#32Adarius HutchinsonBellville, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#15Colt MatlockWeatherford, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 176 lbNew / unverified
#38Jalen HamiltonRound Rock, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#48Japrei WaferAllen, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#22Kane White-TinsleyAmarillo, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbNew / unverified
#9Bodey WeaverColleyville, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#15Braesen LeonGilbert, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#22Chris HunterCanton, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#19Daveon SingletonEl Paso, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 156 lbNew / unverified
#21Jaden MooreCompton, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1OklahomaNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 9–35 · 7% win
AwaySep 48:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Texas SouthernNon-conference · Sun Bowl · 4M 17–33 · 81% win
HomeSep 129:00 PM EDT · model ↗3MichiganNon-conference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 12–37 · 8% win
AwaySep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Oregon StateNon-conference · Sun Bowl · 4M 26–23 · 44% win
HomeSep 269:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
New MexicoConference · University Stadium (NM) · 4M 18–31 · 23% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
NevadaConference · Sun Bowl · 4M 25–23 · 46% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
San José StateConference · Sun Bowl · 4M 26–23 · 45% win
HomeOct 179:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
North Dakota StateConference · Fargodome · 4M 21–28 · 36% win
AwayOct 313:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
Hawai'iConference · Sun Bowl · 4M 28–21 · 35% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11WyomingConference · Sun Bowl · 4M 24–22 · 45% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Air ForceConference · Falcon Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 31% win
AwayNov 208:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Northern IllinoisConference · Huskie Stadium · 4M 22–26 · 41% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint3 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case5 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UTEP diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows UTEP to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?