The 2026 outlook
Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?
SMU opens No. 24 nationally and No. 2 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 10.4 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7 regular-season wins.
SMU grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 56 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether SMU beats its 7-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachRhett Lashlee38–16 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger15 in · 26 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
—Mabrey MettauerThe Woodlands, TXQB0.9 pts20% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Sam Houston
#6Kendrick RaphaelNaples, FLRB0.7 pts84% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom California
#3Yannick SmithSummerville, SCWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#5Randy PittmanPanama City, FLTE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#18Theo Melin OhrstromStockholmTE0.7 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 257 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#9Ira SingletonLilburn, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom South Florida
#16Marques WhiteGlendale, AZDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Massachusetts
#97Christian DavisRuston, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 328 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech
#5Malcolm Alcorn-CrowderBrockton, MADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#2Jalen HaleLongview, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#88Trey JacksonDallas, TXTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#4Jayvon ThomasDallas, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#1Jarvis LeeJacksonville, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom South Florida
#12Caden MarshallParis, TNLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#32Jamal AndersonBuford, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#7Kevin JenningsOak Cliff, TXQB4.2 pts78% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#8Yamir KnightSmyrna, DEWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 186 lbReturning
#10Jalen CooperCibolo, TXWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#0Derrick McFallTyler, TXWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#58Abel HoopiiAnianiku, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 340 lbReturning
#63Addison NicholsNorcross, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#77Alex WoodsPort Saint Lucie, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#74Andrew ChambleeMaumelle, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 308 lbReturning
#75Dramodd OdomsHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 318 lbReturning
#76Drew HillCorona, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 288 lbReturning
#50Graham UterDaphne, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 304 lbReturning
#57Henry DouglassAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#66Hunter RyanDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 272 lbReturning
#64Joshua BatesDurango, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#70Paxton BriggleAustin, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#59PJ WilliamsDickinson, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 313 lbReturning
#79Sione Ma'uAucklandOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 346 lbReturning
#58Aakil WashingtonAtlanta, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 243 lbReturning
#52Jahkai LangTroy, MODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#14Trey WilsonGarland, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#96Christian de MoorFrisco, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#90Jalen ShiversAtlanta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#94Jonathan JeffersonDouglasville, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#93Kevin AllenFort Worth, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 291 lbReturning
#56Tyron WinslowHouma, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#55Woo SpencerNew Albany, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 316 lbReturning
#13Daylon SingletonDesoto, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbReturning
#86Devon MartinMesquite, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#89Miles UterDaphne, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 232 lbReturning
#84Tripp RiordanFrisco, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 248 lbReturning
#42Will LockeHelotes, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 234 lbReturning
#11Carterrious BrownMonroe, LAWR0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#35Dante Wesley IICedar Hill, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#13Jaelyn Davis-RobinsonWaxahachie, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#3Javion HolidayDuncanville, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbReturning
#8Marcellus Barnes Jr.Chattanooga, TNCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#44Michael De HoyosSan Antonio, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbReturning
#0William NettlesMesquite, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#2Zadian GentryDenison, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 179 lbReturning
#27Abdul MuhammadDallas, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbReturning
#11Jaden Milliner-JonesDesoto, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#38Jake BallardFlower Mound, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbReturning
#26Jaylen MosesCarrollton, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 191 lbReturning
#15La'Modrick SpencerDallas, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 191 lbReturning
#22Sael ReyesEast Saint Louis, ILS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#10Tyren PolleyDuncanville, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#4Dramekco GreenConroe, TXRB0.5 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 203 lbReturning
#54Alexander KilgoreKaty, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#28Brandon BookerDesoto, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#29Brandon MiyazonoFrisco, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#46Xavier WrightGarland, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#25William FierroLa Jolla, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbReturning
#24Link RhodesLas Vegas, NVRB0.3 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#43Wade McSparronGeelong, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbReturning
#48Morgan TribbettEaton, COLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbReturning
#1Ty HawkinsSan Antonio, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 203 lbReturning
#14Charlie FiserLittle Rock, ARQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbReturning
—Bennett JohnsonExeter, NEOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#78Drew EversFlower Mound, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#60Evan GoodwinBauxite, AROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#71Max WrightMelissa, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#55Sam UtuOrange, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#52Toa KatoaEuless, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 335 lbNew / unverified
#33Amontre HarrisHumble, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#92Hudson WoodsBulverde, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#6Tavion AtkinsonHouston, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#95Wyatt SmithFort Lauderdale, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#99Dakota DicksonOakland, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#98Keith DotieMesquite, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#15Aljour Miles IISacramento, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#26David Kniffen Jr.Plano, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#16Jakai AndersonNew Orleans, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#22Jordyn AdamsCary, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#27Siler CookeDallas, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#81Tyrone CrethersRichardson, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#83X'Zavier BarnettYoakum, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#85Andre Nickerson Jr.Inglewood, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#9Zack TurnerDallas, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#20Deuce GilbertForney, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#21Jimmy WyrickDallas, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#24I'Zayah YoungSan Marcos, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#30Kenneth Goodwin IIIMiami, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#50Marcus BrouseSouthlake, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#53Zachary HibnerBurke, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#12Cole LeinartLos Angeles, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#21Christian RhodesDallas, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#20EJ KellyHouston, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
—Brendan BairdAlbuquerque, NMPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
—Michael SlabaRogers, ARPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#99Nick ReedHarrison, NYPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#96Wiley OlsonAustin, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#47Cody WillifordSouthlake, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Florida StateConference · Doak Campbell Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 51% win
AwaySep 77:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
UC DavisNon-conference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 16–37 · 88% win
HomeSep 124:00 PM EDT · model ↗3LouisvilleConference · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 44% win
AwaySep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Missouri StateNon-conference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 18–35 · 83% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Boston CollegeConference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 19–34 · 80% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
VirginiaConference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 64% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
CaliforniaConference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 73% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
SyracuseConference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 31–20 · 72% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Virginia TechConference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 68% win
HomeNov 67:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Wake ForestConference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 66% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Notre DameNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 20–33 · 24% win
AwayNov 217:30 PM EST · model ↗13
StanfordConference · Stanford Stadium · 4M 30–21 · 70% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about SMU diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and SMU's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?