The 2026 outlook
Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?
Syracuse opens No. 96 nationally and No. 17 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 6.4 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.4 regular-season wins.
Syracuse profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 38 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Syracuse beats its 3.4-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachFran Brown13–12 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger19 in · 29 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#21Danny LauterGreenwich, CTQB1.5 pts26% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Georgetown
#12Amari OdomInglewood, CAQB0.9 pts17% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Kennesaw State
#11Cole WeaverRoswell, GAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Miami (OH)
#22Ahmad MillerMemphis, TNRB0.7 pts71% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Jackson State
#81Noah MeyersLouisville, KYTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#17Elijah MooreOxon Hill, MDWR0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#69Oluwafunto AkinshiloLagosOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#95Dillan FontusArverne, NYDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 292 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#98Jartavius FlounoyMoultrie, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#30Tunmise AdeleyeKaty, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom UNLV
#16Malachi NelsonLos Alamitos, CAQB0.4 pts9% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#13Amare SnowdenRoseville, MIDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#9Jai Eugene Jr.Destrehan, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#7Nazir WardMiami, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#4Ju'Juan JohnsonLafayette, LARB0.4 pts48% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#6Chris D'AppoloniaCranberry Township, PALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#14Keyshawn JohnsonBelle Glade, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom UT Martin
#9Steve AngeliWestfield, NJQB2.3 pts40% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbReturning
#8Tyshawn RussellHarrisburg, PAWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#6Darius JohnsonCarol City, FLWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#84Elijah Washington-BakerNorfolk, VATE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′7″ · 245 lbReturning
#0David ClementAlbany, NYTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#65Adam BoeheimHometown not listedOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning
#76Byron WashingtonDesoto, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 400 lbReturning
#67D'Joni ScatliffeOrlando, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbReturning
#62Jackson IakPawling, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#71Jayden MannBrooklyn, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#78Joe CruzHolbrook, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#50Kahlil StewartNorristown, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning
#77Kam PringleDorchester, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 335 lbReturning
#70Kardiear ShepherdSyracuse, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning
#74Matthew HawnSyracuse, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#60Naquil BetrandPhiladelphia, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#64Skylar HarveyBaltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 330 lbReturning
#53Ted OlsenPalos Verdes Estates, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#79Travis Brown-MillerTeaneck, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbReturning
#75Trevion MackMounds View, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#68Vito ShevchenkoVancouver, BCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning
#55Zach RiceLynchburg, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#45Clark CallowayHometown not listedDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#88Elijah CrawfordPerry Hall, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning
#99Isaiah HastingsToronto, ONDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#77Jaylen PrayBronx, NYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbReturning
#15Nathan NyandoroMontreal, PQDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 270 lbReturning
#11Nissi OgbeborOttawa, ONDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#92Rashard PerryBuffalo, NYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#7Darien WilliamsSyracuse, NYWR0.5 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#28Malachi ColemanRoanoke, VARB0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#19Daunte BacheyieSylvan Beach, NYTE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbReturning
#83Julian McFaddenConshohocken, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#87Nate EdwardsSyosset, NYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 180 lbReturning
#88Terrell WilfongWest Orange, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 185 lbReturning
#2Umari HatcherWoodbridge, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbReturning
#87Wyatt BowmanBethesda, MDTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#39Bradley ChandlerPlantation, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#0Braheem Long Jr.Camden, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#12Chris PealCharlotte, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#19Cornell PerryBrownstown, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#3Davien KerrHometown not listedDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Demetres Samuel Jr.Palm Bay, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#38James TrotterNew Orleans, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#27Javon LawrenceSpring Valley, NYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#31Marcus Washington Jr.Grovetown, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#34Nate PraterFranklin, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#20Rayshon AndrewsBristol, CTDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbReturning
#22Ziyyon BredellPhiladelphia, PADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#5Antoine DeslauriersMontreal, PQLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#18David OmopariolaBaltimore, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#43Garvin St. JohnHometown not listedLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 235 lbReturning
#10Gary Bryant IIIBaltimore, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 228 lbReturning
#49Josh KubalaSyracuse, NYLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#23Trey DudleyAshburn, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#2Zyian Moultrie-GoddardBronx, NYLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#82Jamie TrembleJohns Creek, GALB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 222 lbReturning
#20Tylik HillAsbury Park, NJRB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning
#3Davion KerrBloomfield, CTRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#46Mateja PavlovichHookstown, PAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#21Fran Brown Jr.Medford, NJLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#13Joseph FilardiDix Hills, NYQB0.3 pts7% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#47Tripp WoodyWaxhaw, NCPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#17Rich BelinHarlem, NYQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#63Brayden CharneyPalm Beach Gardens, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
—David NdukweDecatur, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
—Javeion CooperMelbourne, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#61Joseph WhiteCamden, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
—Shemaj HenryChester, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
—Alex HaskellPhiladelphia, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#16Jarius RodgersFleming Island, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#17Kamron WilsonNaranja, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#90Kordae HoustonDallas, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
—Walt Frazier Jr.Philadelphia, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#15Amare' GoughRichmond, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
—BJ GarrettBear, DEWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#5Calvin Russell IIIOpa Locka, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#13Matthew OuttenPortsmouth, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
—Phoenix HenriquezSmyrna, DEWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#14Zamondre MerriweatherValencia, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
—Carter BashirPhiladelphia, PATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
—Cam Hairston-TaylorRoanoke, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#4Chase GeterAshburn, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#26Darnell Stokes Jr.Seaford, DEDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#24Ibn-Wadu MuhammadWoodbury, NJDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#8Tedarius HughesMiami, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
—Terrance JohnsonHollywood, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#33Gemaus SackieBurlington, NJLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#42Maurice MedleySevern, MDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#10Zaid LottKannapolis, NCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#23Shavane Anderson Jr.York, PARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
—Shay BarkerLandenberg, PAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#41Jimmy GreggMorgantown, WVP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1New HampshireNon-conference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 18–33 · 79% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2CaliforniaConference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 26–24 · 46% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
PittsburghConference · Acrisure Stadium · 4M 18–31 · 24% win
AwaySep 177:30 PM EDT · model ↗5
UConnNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 44% win
AwayOct 312:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
VirginiaConference · Scott Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 25% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
LouisvilleConference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 30–19 · 27% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
North CarolinaConference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 38% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
SMUConference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 31–20 · 28% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
ClemsonConference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 30–20 · 29% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
NC StateConference · Carter-Finley Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 26% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Boston CollegeConference · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 4M 24–27 · 44% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Notre DameNon-conference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 36–15 · 12% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint3 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Syracuse diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Syracuse to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?