The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
Arkansas opens No. 49 nationally and No. 14 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4 regular-season wins.
Arkansas sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 3 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Arkansas can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 4-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachRyan Silverfield42–21 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Bobby Petrino
Portal ledger42 in · 43 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#2AJ HillWarner Robins, GAQB2.8 pts56% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 232 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#8Donovan FaupelRiverside, CAWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#6Chris MarshallMissouri City, TXWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom Boise State
#9Jamari HawkinsMobile, ALWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#5Sutton SmithMarietta, GARB0.6 pts62% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#32Matt AdcockRaleigh, MSTE0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 258 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#54Adam HawkesHerriman, UTOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#64Bryant WilliamsLake Charles, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana
#79Josiah ClemonsClinton, MSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 341 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#78Lucas PossentiAston, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom Temple
#71Malachi BrelandLaurel, MSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 334 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#74Terence Roberson Jr.Warren, AROL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom Ouachita Baptist
#91Carlon JonesBay City, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 327 lbTransfer infrom USC
#0Hunter OsborneTrussville, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#11Jamonta WallerPicayune, MSDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 237 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#35Steven Soles Jr.Powell, TNDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 237 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#28Trajen OdomInglewood, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 297 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#88Xadavien SimsDurant, OKDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#85Ty LockwoodThompsons Station, TNTE0.4 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#13Jelani WatkinsLaplace, LAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 163 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#3Braydon LeeUpper Marlboro, MDDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#13Carter StoutmirePlano, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 216 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#1Christian HarrisonAtlanta, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#23Ian WilliamsCartersville, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#18John Howse IVBrentwood, TNDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#6Khmori HousePasadena, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#14Kyeaure MagloireMinneola, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom West Georgia
#4La'khi RolandConley, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#27LaMarcus Hicks IIClarksdale, MSDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#2Shelton LewisAtlanta, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#21Tyler ScottMableton, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#21Jasper ParkerGretna, LARB0.4 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#44Ben BoglePonte Vedra, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#25Ja'Quavion SmithWingate, NCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 229 lbTransfer infrom Howard
#42Jeremy EvansTenaha, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 229 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#8Phoenix JacksonModesto, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 221 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#30Max GilbertMemphis, TNPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#39Braeden McAlisterIndian Trail, NCPK0.2 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#16Braeden FullerFloresville, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 221 lbTransfer infrom Angelo State
#7KJ JacksonMontgomery, ALQB2.5 pts44% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#83Jaden PlattHaslet, TXTE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#3CJ BrownBentonville, ARWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#11Monte HarrisonLee's Summit, MOWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 222 lbReturning
#1Courtney CrutchfieldPine Bluff, ARWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 187 lbReturning
#65Aaron SmithConway, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 288 lbReturning
#62Alex JohnsonLittle Rock, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbReturning
#73Brooks EdmonsonBryant, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 313 lbReturning
#52Caden KitlerThe Colony, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 303 lbReturning
#60Jonas NantzeSpringdale, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 289 lbReturning
#53Kash CourtneyCarthage, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 301 lbReturning
#75Kavion BroussardNew Iberia, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 312 lbReturning
#50Kobe BranhamFort Smith, AROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 336 lbReturning
#66Payton Parks-SmithSterlington, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#90Caleb BellAlpharetta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 284 lbReturning
#9Charlie CollinsPine Bluff, ARDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 233 lbReturning
#92David OkeLagosDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 298 lbReturning
#52Donovan WhittenArkadelphia, ARDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 252 lbReturning
#93Keiundre JohnsonTerrell, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbReturning
#97Quincy Rhodes Jr.North Little Rock, ARDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 273 lbReturning
#94Reginald VaughnBrandon, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 301 lbReturning
#43Trent SellersMobile, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 269 lbReturning
#0Braylen RussellBenton, ARRB0.5 pts59% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbReturning
#19Antonio JordanWarren, ARWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 228 lbReturning
#4Ismael CisseDenver, COWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbReturning
#89Gavin GarretsonChico, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 256 lbReturning
#35Hutson HendrixBoerne, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 237 lbReturning
#32Landon PhippsSpringdale, ARDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbReturning
#24Miguel MitchellOxford, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 219 lbReturning
#47Maddox LassiterWarren, ARTE0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 248 lbReturning
#7Bradley ShawHoover, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 229 lbReturning
#48Joseph WhittProsper, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#45Preston DavisLittle Rock, ARLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 223 lbReturning
#10Wyatt SimmonsSearcy, ARLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#27Cam SettlesLittle Rock, ARRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 209 lbReturning
#25Markeylin BattonAtlanta, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbReturning
#46Charlie Von Der MedenTomball, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbReturning
#37Gavin RushFranklin, TNP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbReturning
#59Max SchmidlyCharlotte, NCLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbReturning
#56Ben MubengaBuford, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 289 lbNew / unverified
#55Carey ClaytonGrapevine, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 282 lbNew / unverified
#70Daniel GreinMunster, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 324 lbNew / unverified
#67Emmanuel FlorBrooklyn, NYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 334 lbNew / unverified
#63Hugh SmithMissouri City, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#61Kaden BramlageShawnee, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 296 lbNew / unverified
#72Tucker YoungHot Springs, AROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#95Anthony Kennedy Jr.Little Rock, ARDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 337 lbNew / unverified
#55Antonio Sandel-BascombAkron, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#41Brian AlstonBirmingham, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 247 lbNew / unverified
#40Colton YarbroughCaddo, OKDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 262 lbNew / unverified
#99Danny Beale IIIVanndale, ARDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 347 lbNew / unverified
#30J'Lynn AllenNorth Little Rock, ARDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#82Ben PupploYakima, WAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#88Blair Irvin IIIBentonville, ARWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#87Cory Henderson Jr.North Little Rock, ARWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#81Dai'shaun ThomasHouston, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 174 lbNew / unverified
#80Dequane PrevoTexarkana, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 176 lbNew / unverified
#18Jude HallGreenville, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#84Breylen GilbertFairburn, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#31Blake BriskerArgyle, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbNew / unverified
#38Bradley Ume-EzeokeFlower Mound, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#29Brandon FordCrowley, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#17DJ Hairston Jr.Starkville, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 176 lbNew / unverified
#26Jalon CopelandValdosta, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#16Jathan HatchCorinth, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#36Jeremiah WilliamsDallas, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#20Joker JohnsonHammond, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#19Kyndrick WilliamsFayetteville, ARDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#15Nsongbeh GinyuiBakersfield, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#22Tay LockettSan Diego, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#33Jakore SmithBryant, ARLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#10Cade TrotterDallas, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#14Hank HendrixFayetteville, ARQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#23Kevin YoungForrest City, ARRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#24Mario RobinsonMemphis, TNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#22TJ HodgesBryant, ARRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#41Connor SmithClintwood, VAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
#34Jesse EhrlichMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#51Adam JohnstonRipon, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1North AlabamaNon-conference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 13–43 · 95% win
HomeSep 54:15 PM EDT · model ↗2UtahNon-conference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 22–34 · 26% win
AwaySep 1210:15 PM EDT · model ↗3
GeorgiaConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 34–22 · 26% win
HomeSep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
TulsaNon-conference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 21–33 · 73% win
HomeSep 268:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
Texas A&MConference · Kyle Field · 4M 21–35 · 22% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
TennesseeConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 32–26 · 38% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
VanderbiltConference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 25–34 · 32% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
MissouriConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 40% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
AuburnConference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 34% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
South CarolinaConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 48% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
TexasConference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 21–35 · 23% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
LSUConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 41% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Arkansas diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Arkansas's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?