The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Baylor opens No. 48 nationally and No. 10 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.2 regular-season wins.
Baylor sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 43 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Baylor beats its 5.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachDave Aranda34–30 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger31 in · 32 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#2DJ LagwayWillis, TXQB4.6 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 237 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#6Gavin FreemanOklahoma City, OKWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#15Jayden McGowanLaurens, SCWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#10Tony LivingstonTampa, FLTE0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#1Dre'lon MillerSilsbee, TXWR0.6 pts56% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#72Asher HaleMobile, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 326 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#78Cole RhettColumbus, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 348 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#58Cooper LovelacePrairie Village, KSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#76Lawson PettyDallas, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Incarnate Word
#77Logan MooreSan Diego, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 296 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#70Nate KibbleHumble, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 333 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#53Daemian WimberlyAustin, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 263 lbTransfer infrom UTSA
#97Jordan MackWaldorf, MDDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 277 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#93Zavion HardyMacon, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 281 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#0Hosea WheelerSacramento, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 306 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#99Jamaal Whyce Jr.Miami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 301 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#96Kamren WashingtonArlington, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 281 lbTransfer infrom Texas State
#83DeBraun HamptonMontgomery, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#7Devon JordanTulsa, OKCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#27Jayden RoweTulsa, OKCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#23Stilton McKelveyHouston, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#32Austin AusberryBaton Rouge, LAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#15Colby McCalisterHouston, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#14Daniel CobbsFort Worth, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#31Anthony Crenshaw Jr.Arlington, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 218 lbTransfer infrom Delaware
#13Garrick PonderSt. Petersburg, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#44JJ SheltonDallas, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#36Kedrick WalkerAdamsville, ALLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#9Ryan DavisPhoenix, AZLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#3Jadon PorterLorena, TXWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbReturning
#85Matthew KlopfensteinScottsdale, AZTE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbReturning
#4Louis Brown IVLos Angeles, CAWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning
#62Alessandro LorenzettiMontreal, PQOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 314 lbReturning
#61Cayden ToneSan Mateo, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#79Connor CameronGilbert, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 306 lbReturning
#56Harrison CluffColumbia, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#74Kaden SierackiThe Woodlands, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′9″ · 310 lbReturning
#66Koltin SierackiThe Woodlands, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 317 lbReturning
#71Matthew ParkerFlowood, MSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 316 lbReturning
#63Wyatt SwanerDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 287 lbReturning
#57Christopher JohnsonRosharon, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbReturning
#40Kyler JordanLubbock, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 251 lbReturning
#92Trent ThomasMissouri City, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 259 lbReturning
#52Aleki ManutaiHometown not listedDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning
#90Braylen JacksonMansfield, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 289 lbReturning
#59Devonte TezinoKilleen, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 284 lbReturning
#98Jackson BlackwellLorena, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 314 lbReturning
#11Caden KnightenPauls Valley, OKRB0.6 pts64% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 211 lbReturning
#23Michael TurnerNorth Richland Hills, TXRB0.5 pts62% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#87Ashton JonesPearland, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 202 lbReturning
#32Brody DaySpring Branch, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#84Chase CollierJacksonville, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 181 lbReturning
#80Jackson BairdWaco, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 198 lbReturning
#89Michael Johnson Jr.Batesville, MSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbReturning
#81Ryne ShackelfordElyria, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbReturning
#18Taz Williams Jr.Red Oak, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#43Brody WilhelmAustin, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 236 lbReturning
#86Hawkins PolleyHouston, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 256 lbReturning
#28Calvin Simpson-HuntWaxahachie, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 209 lbReturning
#34Daniel EdeniSan Antonio, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 203 lbReturning
#12Kyler BeatyComanche, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbReturning
#25LeVar Thornton Jr.Fort Worth, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 182 lbReturning
#22Reggie Bush IIFrisco, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#21Bo OnuCarrollton, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#26Colin PeacockGunter, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 206 lbReturning
#37Demetrius BrisbonTyler, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbReturning
#11Devin TurnerLittle Elm, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#8Jacob ReddingNew Braunfels, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbReturning
#48Jad DarkazalliArlington, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#19Leo Almanza Jr.Trophy Club, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbReturning
#24Micah GiffordPflugerville, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#30Michael AllenStilwell, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 180 lbReturning
#17Tyler TurnerSan Antonio, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#55Jaylin JonesBeaumont, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbReturning
#41Kaleb BurnsHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbReturning
#10Kyland ReedArlington, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning
#5Travion BarnesAltamonte Springs, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 247 lbReturning
#49Trey LaurenceSan Antonio, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#35Dawson PendergrassAlba, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#20Jacorey WatsonPearland, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#98Rhett ArmstrongMonument, COPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 209 lbReturning
#94Palmer WilliamsAdvance, NCP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 221 lbReturning
#93Dylan SchaubNew Waverly, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 231 lbReturning
#17Cade TessierMontgomery, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 219 lbReturning
#14Edward GriffinCoppell, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 213 lbReturning
#12Nate BennettWestlake Village, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbReturning
#67David Roberts Jr.Irmo, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 341 lbNew / unverified
#69Donel Robinson Jr.Durant, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#64Jaydon MendiolaClovis, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#57Journey TalaSan Diego, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbNew / unverified
#73Keystone AllisonCarthage, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 317 lbNew / unverified
—Muyont'a MaxwellKansas City, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#54Jae'Lin BattleOklahoma City, OKDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 303 lbNew / unverified
#34Davion PetersBelton, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#16London SmithWaco, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 211 lbNew / unverified
#88Kai WesleyOrem, UTTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 252 lbNew / unverified
#46Parker AlmanzaTrophy Club, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#38Jamarion RichardsonTexarkana, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 162 lbNew / unverified
#33Kalique CheevesLivermore, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 155 lbNew / unverified
#39Cole ReddingNew Braunfels, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#29Jordan DavisProsper, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#46Jahiem PorterCedar Park, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#42Jamarion PhillipsDallas, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 222 lbNew / unverified
#56Kaleb ArterberryPearl, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbNew / unverified
#94Tyrone MorganBaton Rouge, LALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#13Quinn MurphyArgyle, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#33HD DavisWolfe City, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#25Ryelan MorrisHoney Grove, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#97Bronson MuellerRockwall, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#96Riley SullivanLexington, NCPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#60Brady HibbardMarshville, NCLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1AuburnNon-conference · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 39% win
NeutralSep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Prairie View A&MNon-conference · McLane Stadium · 4M 14–40 · 93% win
HomeSep 128:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Louisiana TechNon-conference · McLane Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 70% win
HomeSep 194:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
ColoradoConference · McLane Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 65% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Arizona StateConference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 39% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
TCUConference · McLane Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 48% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
KansasConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–29 · 45% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
UCFConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 53% win
AwayOct 307:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
Iowa StateConference · McLane Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 56% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
BYUConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 30% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Texas TechConference · McLane Stadium · 4M 30–20 · 30% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
HoustonConference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 43% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Baylor diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Baylor's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?