The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Ball State opens No. 137 nationally and No. 12 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 19.6 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.4 regular-season wins.
Ball State starts in the development tier. The preseason prior needs evidence before moving higher, but young or rebuilt teams can improve faster than the market adjusts. September performance matters more here than it does for an established contender.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 100 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Ball State beats its 3.4-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMike Uremovich4–8 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger24 in · 18 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#6Keldric LusterMcKinney, TXQB0.8 pts18% starter · 40% conf.5′10″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom Texas State
#9Tyler MizzellDenver, NCQB0.8 pts18% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 176 lbTransfer infrom Concord
#7CJ NelsonNorth Richland Hills, TXWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Illinois
#5Jabari Smith Jr.Orlando, FLWR0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 163 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#56Jacob JeudyMiami, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 289 lbTransfer infrom Concord
#63Maxwell WentzHuntington, WVOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Dartmouth
#77Misael SandovalChula Vista, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 332 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#89Sean WardCleveland, OHTE0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Dartmouth
#10Austin StiefOrlando, FLDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Davenport
#39Maverick GracioWest Palm Beach, FLDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 252 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#95Keilan SmithPickerington, OHDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 326 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#99Kendrick GilbertIndianapolis, INDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 271 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#20Johnny Thompson Jr.Canoga Park, CARB0.4 pts41% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#3Corey Thompson Jr.San Diego, CAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 167 lbTransfer infrom Utah State
#86DJ YoungLafayette, INWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Siena Heights
#12Alex ScherleRochester Hills, MITE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom Rice
#18Cedric Franklin IIMableton, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State
#5Chris JacksonSan Diego, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 164 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#21Dianté GriffinLima, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#50Carsen BurckhardtLong Lake, MNLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 223 lbTransfer infrom Valparaiso
#6Cincear LewisKalamazoo, MILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#27Gavin ForshaNashville, TNLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 224 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee State
#31Jared BadieAurora, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 237 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#15Jovan ClarkChicago, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Washington State
#18Bodie DerrerArcadia, INQB1.3 pts30% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#13Khalel WrightCharlotte, NCQB1.3 pts30% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbReturning
#1Donovan HamiltonFishers, INWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 217 lbReturning
#60Blake ScriberCincinnati, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 287 lbReturning
#71Brady BarrowmanMinooka, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 304 lbReturning
#66Chris HoodKendallville, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′10″ · 327 lbReturning
#76CJ ZeltwangerWest Lafayette, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#73Cole MosierColumbia City, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbReturning
#68Grant HaworthHometown not listedOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 299 lbReturning
#67Jackson RuessHometown not listedOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbReturning
#78Kaden MayleFremont, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 274 lbReturning
#61Luke DaltonCrystal Lake, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#55Michael VaronPalatine, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbReturning
#65Ryan EldridgeGoshen, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 289 lbReturning
#70Tristan CookLexington, KYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 291 lbReturning
#75Zach BandyAvon, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 293 lbReturning
#10Jamarion McDougleDeerfield Beach, FLWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#7Ben MarshHilliard, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 247 lbReturning
#3George OkorieVancouver, BCDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 253 lbReturning
#91Jamar BirdenWaycross, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#56Ameir GlennFairburn, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 303 lbReturning
#74Khristian ZacharyFayetteville, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 303 lbReturning
#90Lincoln MasonWilsonville, ORDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbReturning
#52Michael ThackerNew Palestine, INDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 304 lbReturning
#57Reese HillGreenfield, INDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbReturning
#54Spencer VakaShawnee, KSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 299 lbReturning
#14Elisha DurhamWest Bloomfield, MIWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 168 lbReturning
#11Isaiah ThackerNew Palestine, INWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbReturning
#2Jalen BondsIndianapolis, INRB0.5 pts65% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbReturning
#80Derion TalbertLexington, KYWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 162 lbReturning
#83Eli HohltHometown not listedWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 181 lbReturning
#81Leo CollinsEvansville, INTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 233 lbReturning
#8Mason RigginsZionsville, INTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#84Tate HooverManhattan, KSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 254 lbReturning
#4TJ HortonLexington, KYRB0.5 pts64% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 201 lbReturning
#8Avery StuartMontgomery, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 204 lbReturning
#45Cole EarlewineFishers, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 207 lbReturning
#12Deondre ShepherdMcKinney, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbReturning
#0Derek FieldsSaint Charles, MODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#11Donovan LanierWinter Garden, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 176 lbReturning
#24Gabe ArambolesWestfield, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 224 lbReturning
#38Jayden BernavilHometown not listedDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 188 lbReturning
#23Jordan SuggsO'Fallon, ILDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 169 lbReturning
#13Kamron ChamblePort Orange, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbReturning
#29Micah LillardLafayette, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbReturning
#2Tobi AdewoyinAtlanta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbReturning
#4Willizhuan YatesSpringboro, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#0Elijah JacksonIndianapolis, INRB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 181 lbReturning
#9Justin ThomasFlossmoor, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 242 lbReturning
#42Layton StarksVersailles, KYLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 237 lbReturning
#26Lucas SzymborskiCrown Point, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 221 lbReturning
#25Mikeah WebsterSheridan, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 243 lbReturning
#48Sam FeeneyIndianapolis, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#38Brody BoehmWestfield, INPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbReturning
#92Cole StumbaughHometown not listedP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 223 lbReturning
#45Caden BrittonNew Albany, OHLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 208 lbReturning
#34Coby TrippSpring Arbor, MILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbReturning
#98Carson HolmerAvon, INPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#72Brady WeberGreenwood, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#54Evan DownerPalatine, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#57Nolan CiceroCrown Point, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 304 lbNew / unverified
#62Sam SpicerMount Juliet, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#79Zion HaneyIndianapolis, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#51CJ SanchezNorth Judson, INDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#55Dominic InfeliseNew Lenox, ILDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#96Joshua ColemanAmericus, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#94Ka'Shawn ThomasBrunswick, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 292 lbNew / unverified
#93Mason HolbrookHamilton, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 268 lbNew / unverified
#97Myles HancockCorona, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#85Ace CooperCincinnati, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 166 lbNew / unverified
#15Tayshon BardoElkhart, INWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#42AJ SeymourBrookfield, WITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#87Cole CoonrodManhattan, KSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 243 lbNew / unverified
#44Lucas AndresenChicago, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#41Zach BeckerVernon Hills, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#14Anthony PinnaceYpsilanti, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#35Drew BosticBrownsburg, INDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#22Gavin Yates-LyonsGreenville, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#17Kamari WilliamsBaltimore, MDDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#33Quentavius ScandrettClayton, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#20Sebastian MooreFort Wayne, INDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#1Sterling SmithIndianapolis, INDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#28Stone PerkinsLouisville, KYDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#19Zyon HillFishers, INDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#36Cole MynettMuncie, INLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#40Gannon KnowlesIndianapolis, INLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#16Kaleb StewartBroward County, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 248 lbNew / unverified
#16Mason AtkinsNorth Aurora, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#21Anthony McMullenMassillon, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#25Char'Rese BreveardElkhart, INRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#37Hudson FieneYorkville, ILPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#19Lachlan MathiesonMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Ohio StateNon-conference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 5–44 · 2% win
AwaySep 512:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Stony BrookNon-conference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 66% win
HomeSep 122:00 PM EDT · model ↗3LibertyNon-conference · Williams Stadium (VA) · 4M 19–32 · 24% win
AwaySep 194:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Kent StateConference · Dix Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 37% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
ToledoConference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 31–18 · 23% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
NorthwesternNon-conference · Ryan Field · 4M 15–35 · 14% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Bowling GreenConference · Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 34% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Sacramento StateConference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 48% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
MassachusettsConference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 56% win
AwayNov 412:00 AM EST · model ↗11
BuffaloConference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 25–23 · 44% win
HomeNov 1112:00 AM EST · model ↗12
OhioConference · Peden Stadium · 4M 19–32 · 23% win
AwayNov 177:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Central MichiganConference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 34% win
HomeNov 2812:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint3 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Ball State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Ball State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?