The 2026 outlook
How quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?
Boise State opens No. 47 nationally and No. 1 of 8 in the Pac-12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 3.3 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.5 regular-season wins.
Boise State sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 70 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Boise State beats its 5.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachSpencer Danielson24–8 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger11 in · 19 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#13Darren MorrisBaton Rouge, LAWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Southern
#78Tyler EthridgeMidlothian, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom CSU-Pueblo
#69Zander EstyAuburn, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#22Juelz GoffYork, PARB0.5 pts54% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#97Mikaio EdwardKent, WADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Central Washington
#28Cam JamersonPearland, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom TCU
#15JeRico Washington Jr.Atlanta, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 176 lbTransfer infrom Kennesaw State
#22Roman TillmonIndependence, MODB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom South Dakota
#32Taebron Bennie-PowellCincinnati, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 177 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#27Harry Stewart IIIFrisco, TXRB0.4 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#17Logan BrantleyDenver, COLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 229 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#4Maddux MadsenAmerican Fork, UTQB3.0 pts58% starter · 76% conf.5′10″ · 207 lbReturning
#14Max CutforthNampa, IDQB2.1 pts42% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#82Ben FordEagle, IDWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning
#0Dylan RileyMoreno Valley, CARB0.7 pts77% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 192 lbReturning
#3Cameron BatesMansfield, TXWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#26Sire GainesPerris, CARB0.6 pts70% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 217 lbReturning
#45Troy GrizzleMeridian, IDTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbReturning
#25Quinton BrownArgyle, TXWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 165 lbReturning
#88Matt WagnerProsper, TXTE0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#74Alma TaleniGold Coast, QLDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 297 lbReturning
#64Carson RasmussenMeridian, IDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#79Connor WarkentinBakersfield, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 293 lbReturning
#75Daylon MetoyerHesperia, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 321 lbReturning
#76Greg BienvenueMesa, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbReturning
#66Jacob TracyYelm, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#68Jake SteeleTemecula, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbReturning
#59Jameson PerryMeridian, IDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#67Jason SteeleTemecula, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#70Kyle CoxEatonville, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#73Parker PerkinsMeridian, IDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#62Roger CarreonJal, NMOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#52Stewart TaufaSt. George, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 302 lbReturning
#98Bethel ImasuenReadingDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#92David LatuRose Park, UTDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbReturning
#96Lopez SanusiDublinDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 307 lbReturning
#99Michael MadrieArgyle, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#93Ryder SwansonOregon City, ORDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#17AJ JonesMurrieta, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#24AJ MaesRolling Hills Estates, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 197 lbReturning
#84Gavin PackerVancouver, WAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#81Kamryn JonesTemecula, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#83Qumonte Williams Jr.Fort Worth, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 190 lbReturning
#86Austin TerryTumwater, WATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#46Carter KuchenbuchOkanogan, WATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 238 lbReturning
#47Kaden AndersonGilbert, AZTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbReturning
#29Arthur de BoachieAmsterdamDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#31Cole MillerBoise, IDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbReturning
#14Demetrius Freeney Jr.San Leandro, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#9Derek Ganter Jr.Pasadena, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#34Dom CalhounPittsburg, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#16Franklyn Johnson Jr.Little Elm, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 172 lbReturning
#7Jaden MickeyEastvale, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbReturning
#33Josiah AlanisVancouver, WADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbReturning
#8Sherrod SmithEast Palo Alto, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#24Tahj CrutchfieldEastvale, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#39Timothy MitchellPortland, ORDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbReturning
#38Travis AndersonMission Viejo, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#35Trey TolmaireMission Viejo, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#1Boen PhelpsRockford, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#91Bol BolBrooks, ABLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#40DeShawn ToiloloLehi, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 234 lbReturning
#50Jaden WilliamsMission Viejo, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#43Jake RippLos Gatos, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#5Jayden Virgin-MorganSan Diego, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#55Mana TuiotiEugene, ORLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 228 lbReturning
#45Markell BowensPocatello, IDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#95Max StegeCologneLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 269 lbReturning
#51Roman CaywoodHolladay, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#18Samuel BrooksDoral, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#13Sterling Lane IISt. Louis, MOLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbReturning
#44Syncere Brackett-LambeyCompton, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 233 lbReturning
#15Zeke MartinezMeridian, IDRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#37Oscar DoyleBrisbane, QLDP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 214 lbReturning
#35Colton BoomerLake Mary, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#48Canaan MooreVancouver, WAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#71Ashton KershnerMartin, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 327 lbNew / unverified
#63Connor LagrowTualatin, OROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 293 lbNew / unverified
#72Daniil StarykhBerlinOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbNew / unverified
#65Hakeim SmallsEverett, WAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#77Kole CroninReno, NVOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 263 lbNew / unverified
#55Sua FaleagafuaSpring Valley, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 259 lbNew / unverified
#54Adonte MedleyPalmdale, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#90Andrew Rheubottom Jr.Baltimore, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 277 lbNew / unverified
#58Deuce AlailefaleulaAnchorage, AKDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 303 lbNew / unverified
#94Paz St. JohnPeoria, AZDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 268 lbNew / unverified
#56Rowan RuppMeridian, IDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 252 lbNew / unverified
#89A.J. LoganSpring Valley, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#21Akeem WrightBaltimore, MDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#34Jeremyah LaneLouisville, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′6″ · 140 lbNew / unverified
#29Lincoln DunnMelissa, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#19Rasean JonesBaker City, ORWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#80Romeo CarterSan Diego, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#85Terrious FavorsAtlanta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 163 lbNew / unverified
#49Beckham HoflandLos Alamitos, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#87Keawe BrowneCorona, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 222 lbNew / unverified
#48Ryan BrekkeMeridian, IDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#23Davin HillArlington, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 179 lbNew / unverified
#36Jacob Arbuckle IIHemet, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#20Kyle HallSacramento, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#10Madden SoliaiLaie, HIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 179 lbNew / unverified
#30Adam AustonLawton, OKLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 228 lbNew / unverified
#46Corey Webb Jr.Tonopah, AZLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#57Gustaf Henriks RasStockholmLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbNew / unverified
#41Rocky DunnMelissa, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#53Ty TannerMeridian, IDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#42Zyhaire LewisFontana, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#10Cash HerreraLa Jolla, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#16Jackson TaylorThousand Oaks, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#23Keilan ChaviesHutto, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#30Mariyon SloanShafter, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#42Bradan ScottSolana Beach, CAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#61Caden KellowBrentwood, TNLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#60Tyler HimebauchMonument, COLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1OregonNon-conference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 17–35 · 16% win
AwaySep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
MemphisNon-conference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 64% win
HomeSep 126:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
South DakotaNon-conference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 81% win
HomeSep 1910:00 PM EDT · model ↗4Western MichiganNon-conference · Waldo Stadium · 4M 25–24 · 51% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Utah StateConference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 66% win
HomeOct 37:30 PM EDT · model ↗6
Fresno StateConference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 57% win
AwayOct 1010:30 PM EDT · model ↗8
Washington StateConference · Gesa Field · 4M 25–26 · 47% win
AwayOct 246:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Texas StateConference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 57% win
HomeOct 3110:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
Colorado StateConference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 30–22 · 67% win
AwayNov 76:00 PM EST · model ↗11
Oregon StateConference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 74% win
HomeNov 146:00 PM EST · model ↗12
San Diego StateConference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 23–25 · 54% win
HomeNov 219:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Boise State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Boise State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionHow quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?