BYU 2026 Preview — No. 19 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?

BYU opens No. 19 nationally and No. 3 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 12.6 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.8 regular-season wins.

BYU has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.

The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.

The schedule grades No. 55 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether BYU beats its 6.8-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachKalani Sitake46–19 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger9 in · 14 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback66

Offensive line51

Receivers33

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InCade UluaveLB · from California · 4★

InRoger Saleapaga IITE · from Oregon · 4★

InWalker LyonsTE · from USC · 4★

InPaki FinauIOL · from Washington · 3★

InZak YamauchiIOL · from Stanford · 3★

InKyler KasperWR · from Oregon · 3★

InJayven WilliamsCB · from Mississippi State · 3★

InJake CliftonLB · from Kansas State · 3★

InJr SiaOT · from Utah State · 3★

OutMax AlfordLB · to Michigan · 3★

OutIkinasio TupouOT · to San José State · 3★

OutJake GriffinOT · to Arizona · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBBear Bachmeier5.0 pts94% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

RBLJ Martin0.9 pts94% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

TENoah Moeaki0.7 pts47% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRReggie Frischknecht0.6 pts47% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

TEWalker Lyons0.6 pts44% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

OLAndrew Gentry0.6 pts44% expected role · roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#7Walker LyonsFolsom, CATE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom USC

#62Jr SiaHerriman, UTOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Utah State

#58Paki FinauHesperia, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Washington

#56Zak YamauchiLas Vegas, NVOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Stanford

#2Roger Saleapaga IIOrem, UTTE0.4 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Oregon

#3Kyler KasperChandler, AZWR0.4 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Oregon

#15Jayven WilliamsMobile, ALCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State

#4Cade UluaveSouth Jordan, UTLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom California

#31Jake CliftonOwasso, OKLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State

#47Bear BachmeierMurrieta, CAQB5.0 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning

#4LJ MartinEl Paso, TXRB0.9 pts94% role · 76% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#82Noah MoeakiAmerican Fork, UTTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning

#18Reggie FrischknechtEphraim, UTWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 207 lbReturning

#75Andrew GentryLittleton, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbReturning

#66Brigham AlexanderSan Tan Valley, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning

#63Bruce MitchellKamas, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning

#78Ethan ThomasonFort Collins, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 315 lbReturning

#76Jeff LewisOrem, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning

#72Joe BrownCedar Hills, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning

#64Kyle SfarciocPeoria, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning

#59Siosiua Latu-FinauOakland, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning

#51Sonny MakasiniProvo, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning

#74Trevin OstlerBountiful, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning

#67Trevor PayHighland, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning

#13Jojo PhillipsLancaster, CAWR0.6 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbReturning

#30Sione MoaProvo, UTRB0.6 pts63% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbReturning

#48Bodie SchoonoverAmerican Fork, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning

#90Hunter CleggAmerican Fork, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning

#46Kendal WallHerriman, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning

#97Kinilau FonohemaSpringville, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning

#5Nusi TaumoepeauSaratoga Springs, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning

#10Orion Maile-KaufusiSalt Lake City, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning

#59Siosefa BrownSalt Lake City, UTDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning

#13Tausili AkanaLaie, HIDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning

#52Vincent TautuaEwa Beach, HIDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning

#94Anisi PurcellWest Bountiful, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning

#96Justin KirklandWest Haven, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning

#57Keanu TanuvasaMission Viejo, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning

#93Kelepi Latu-FinauOakland, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning

#50Maverick McManusSaratoga Springs, NYDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 272 lbReturning

#99Ulavai FetuliLaie, HIDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbReturning

#45Viliami Po'uhaSouth Jordan, UTDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 278 lbReturning

#28Jovesa DamuniProvidence, UTRB0.5 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#19Tiger BachmeierMurrieta, CAWR0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning

#84Kila KeonePacific Palisades, HIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 185 lbReturning

#0Tei NacuaProvo, UTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning

#22Trey RobertsAmerican Fork, UTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#24Ethan WoodHeber City, UTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning

#80Jacob NyeMelissa, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning

#45Keayen NeadSugar City, IDTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning

#83Will ZundelHighland, UTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning

#12Preston RexSan Clemente, CARB0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#32Cannon DeVriesOgden, UTCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 184 lbReturning

#0Evan JohnsonMonterey, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#2Jonathan KabeyaEuless, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning

#26Jordyn CrissArlington, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning

#20Kevin DoeSalt Lake City, UTCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbReturning

#1Therrian Alexander IIIEllenwood, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning

#28Crew ClarkSugar City, IDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#11Faletau SatualaBountiful, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning

#17Jarinn KalamaHonolulu, HIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning

#37Joseph DouglasStansbury Park, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning

#27Matthias LeachFort Worth, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 184 lbReturning

#24Payton VanSteenkisteRigby, IDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#3Raider DamuniProvo, UTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning

#22Tommy PrassasChandler, AZS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#18Ace KaufusiKahuku, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning

#16Isaiah GlaskerSouth Jordan, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning

#33Maika KaufusiCottonwood Heights, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning

#21Miles HallSt. George, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning

#23Pierson WatsonFlagstaff, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning

#54Siale EseraProvo, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning

#34Charlie MiskaHometown not listedRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning

#38Logan PaynePleasant View, UTRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning

#41Lucky FinauSandy, UTRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning

#97Matthias DunnHeber City, UTPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning

#19Fuller ShurtzKaty, TXP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning

#47Berkley AlfreyAuburn, WALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning

#43Ty SmithGilbert, AZLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning

#10Treyson BourguetTucson, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning

#52Bott MulitaloLehi, UTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#73Caden McKeeCorona, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#54Jake AlexanderSan Tan Valley, AZOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 270 lbNew / unverified

#53Strantz MangisiProvo, UTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#57Talitu'i PututauSalt Lake City, UTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbNew / unverified

#42Adney ReidSpanish Fork, UTDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 238 lbNew / unverified

#30Braxton LindseyRogers, ARDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#98Devoux TuatagaEagle Mountain, UTDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbNew / unverified

#58David TangilanuEast Palo Alto, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified

#41Nehemiah KoloneStillwater, OKDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbNew / unverified

#26Fisher IngersollAmerican Fork, UTWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#33Jared EsplinProvo, UTWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#5Jaron PulaHighland, UTWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#89Jett NelsonAmerican Fork, UTWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 212 lbNew / unverified

#1Legend GlaskerLehi, UTWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#23Terrance SaryonPortland, ORWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#44Josh DavisHighland, UTTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#87Matthew FredrickSalt Lake City, UTTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 242 lbNew / unverified

#29Justice BrathwaiteGilbert, AZCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#39Seth ShiggLos Angeles, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbNew / unverified

#36Antonio JohnsonFort Worth, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#7Kennan PulaHighland, UTS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#25Lance ReynoldsOrem, UTS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#35Matthew MasonLas Vegas, NVS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#55Blake LoweTemecula, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#34Daniel TaumoepeauDaly City, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#51Gage TannerMeridian, IDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#43Owen BorgDraper, UTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#17Enoch WatsonQueen Creek, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#15John SandersLa Canada Flintridge, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#16Owen GeilmanBountiful, UTQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#25Devaughn EkaLehi, UTRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#20Journee TongaLawndale, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 198 lbNew / unverified

#42Micah BecksteadProvo, UTRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 238 lbNew / unverified

#99Brody LagaHerriman, UTPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified

#36Cole ShulmanNashville, TNP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#49Rayden HeintzBrighton, COLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

Utah TechNon-conference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 8–45 · 98% win

HomeSep 58:00 PM EDT · model ↗2

ArizonaConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 62% win

HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3

Colorado StateNon-conference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 34–19 · 80% win

AwaySep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗5

TCUConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 54% win

AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6

Iowa StateConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 71% win

HomeOct 910:15 PM EDT · model ↗7

Notre DameNon-conference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 38% win

HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8

UCFConference · FBC Mortgage Stadium · 4M 29–22 · 65% win

AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9

Arizona StateConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 66% win

HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10

UtahConference · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 42% win

AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11

BaylorConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 70% win

HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

KansasConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 59% win

AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13

CincinnatiConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 21–33 · 75% win

HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case5 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint7 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case9 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about BYU diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.

Pass or fade when

The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.

Watch first

Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.

Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?