The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
LSU opens No. 20 nationally and No. 8 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 12.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.9 regular-season wins.
LSU has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.
The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 15 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. LSU can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 5.9-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachLane Kiffin50–14 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Brian Kelly
Portal ledger44 in · 41 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#11Landen ClarkRadford, VAQB2.8 pts52% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Elon
#10Sam LeavittWest Linn, ORQB2.5 pts47% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 216 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#1Jayce BrownFort Walton Beach, FLWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#2Tre' BrownSavannah, GAWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#4Jackson HarrisBerkeley, CAWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Hawai'i
#3Eugene Wilson IIITampa, FLWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#85Josh JacksonNew Orleans, LAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom McNeese
#82Roman MothershedMontgomery, ALWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Troy
#13Dilin JonesLaurel, MDRB0.6 pts75% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#6Winston Watkins Jr.Fort Myers, FLWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#12Malachi ThomasThomasville, GATE0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#88Malik ElzyChicago, ILWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#69Darrin StreyPaw Paw, MIOT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 314 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#70Devin HarperShreveport, LAOT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#77Jordan SeatonWashington, DCOT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 307 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#65Sean Thompkins Jr.Covington, GAOT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#55Aliou BahMemphis, TNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 327 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#54Ja'Mard Jones Jr.Metairie, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom Nicholls
#52Ja'Quan SprinkleOrangeburg, SCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 297 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina Central
#50William Satterwhite IIBarberton, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 293 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#25Rod Gainey Jr.Tampa, FLRB0.5 pts61% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#93Jaylen BrownMadison, ALDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#29Jordan RossBirmingham, ALDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#1Princewill UmanmielenAustin, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 244 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#98Achilles WoodsDecatur, ALDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#47Malik BloctonPike Road, ALDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 286 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#90Stephiylan GreenRome, GADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#23Stacy GageTampa, FLRB0.4 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#84Tyree HollowayJacksonville, NCWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 174 lbTransfer infrom West Florida
#44Zach GraceKearney, MOTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#30Treylan JamesBaton Rouge, LACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Southern
#13Faheem DelaneGood Hope, MDS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#34Mason DossettMissouri City, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#2Ty BenefieldAltadena, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Boise State
#6TJ DotteryMontgomery, ALLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#27Raycine Guillory Jr.Fort Worth, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 179 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#80Scott StarzykThe Woodlands, TXPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#99Hayden CraigMercier, PQP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#39Mack MulhernScottsdale, AZLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#6Husan LongstreetCorona, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom USC
#19Kaden MartinAtlanta, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 231 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#14Trey'Dez GreenJackson, LATE0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′7″ · 237 lbReturning
#66Solomon ThomasJacksonville, FLOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#75Weston DavisBeaumont, TXOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#67Bo BordelonRaceland, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#74Braden AugustusBaton Rouge, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 313 lbReturning
#61Braelin MooreBethlehem, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 301 lbReturning
#68Brett BordelonRaceland, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 276 lbReturning
#76Christian StampsMetairie, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 326 lbReturning
#53Hayes FuquaWest Monroe, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 281 lbReturning
#29Caden DurhamOklahoma City, OKRB0.6 pts71% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbReturning
#17Damien ShanklinIndianapolis, INDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 254 lbReturning
#97Dylan CarpenterSaint Amant, LADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 252 lbReturning
#19Gabriel RelifordShreveport, LADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#48Kolaj CobbinsSaint Rose, LADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 234 lbReturning
#92Brandon BrownMelbourne, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 287 lbReturning
#96Dominick McKinleyLafayette, LADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 297 lbReturning
#87Joey AugustNew Orleans, LADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 282 lbReturning
#95Shone WashingtonNew Orleans, LADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 294 lbReturning
#22Harlem BerryNew Orleans, LARB0.5 pts65% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning
#15Phillip Wright IIIShrewsbury, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 171 lbReturning
#47JD LaFleurSulphur, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 254 lbReturning
#81Landon CraigNew Orleans, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#23Aidan AndingGrambling, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#37Craig Walton Jr.Camden, NJCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 174 lbReturning
#5DJ PickettZephyrhills, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 189 lbReturning
#8Ja'Keem JacksonKissimmee, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#21Michael Turner Jr.Kenner, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 162 lbReturning
#11PJ WoodlandHattiesburg, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 164 lbReturning
#10Dashawn SpearsDenham Springs, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbReturning
#28Jhase ThomasDestrehan, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#0Tamarcus CooleyKnightdale, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbReturning
#26Charles Ross IIHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbReturning
#31CJ JimcoilyNashville, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 218 lbReturning
#42Davhon KeysAledo, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 227 lbReturning
#15Jaiden BrakerSnellville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbReturning
#56Jake IbietaMetairie, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 237 lbReturning
#32Keylan MosesBaton Rouge, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbReturning
#24Tylen SingletonMany, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbReturning
#40Whit WeeksWatkinsville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 223 lbReturning
#35Zach WeeksOconee, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#24Joseph EbunJohns Creek, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbReturning
#36Aidan CorbelloNew Orleans, LAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 199 lbReturning
#45Sean PerretBaton Rouge, LAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#90Grant ChadwickTullahoma, TNP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 213 lbReturning
#43Silas HallBaton Rouge, LALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 216 lbReturning
#46Seth KnotheBoise, IDDB0.3 pts27% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 214 lbNew / unverified
#71Brysten MartinezGonzales, LAOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 318 lbNew / unverified
#57JaKolby JonesMany, LAOT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 298 lbNew / unverified
#73Adrian LambBeaufort, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#51Ryan MiretMiami, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#55Lamar BrownErwinville, LADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#91Trenton HendersonPensacola, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 243 lbNew / unverified
#99Deuce GeraldsSuwanee, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 279 lbNew / unverified
#88Richard AndersonNew Orleans, LADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 339 lbNew / unverified
#80Brayden AllenLafayette, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#83Corey Barber Jr.Trussville, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#86Jabari MackKenner, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#87JC AndersonMount Zion, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 256 lbNew / unverified
#27Dez EllisWisner, LACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#36Emari PetersonOrlando, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#22Havon Finney Jr.Carson, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 173 lbNew / unverified
#25Aiden HallNew Orleans, LAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#33Isaiah WashingtonHaynesville, LAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#38Jackson WilliamsNew Orleans, LAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#39Lavonte WilliamsCamden, SCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#49Theo GraceKearney, MOLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbNew / unverified
#32Gavin HigginsBaton Rouge, LAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1ClemsonNon-conference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 22–27 · 60% win
HomeSep 57:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Louisiana TechNon-conference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 17–33 · 81% win
HomeSep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Ole MissConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 39% win
AwaySep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Texas A&MConference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 26–24 · 45% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
McNeeseNon-conference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 8–42 · 97% win
HomeOct 37:45 PM EDT · model ↗6KentuckyConference · Kroger Field · 4M 26–22 · 58% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Mississippi StateConference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 20–29 · 69% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
AuburnConference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 23–25 · 47% win
AwayOct 2412:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
AlabamaConference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 25–24 · 49% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
TexasConference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 26–24 · 45% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
TennesseeConference · Neyland Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 40% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
ArkansasConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 59% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about LSU diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?