The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
UAB opens No. 120 nationally and No. 12 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 11.7 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.1 regular-season wins.
UAB begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 89 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether UAB beats its 4.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachAlex Mortensen2–4 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger38 in · 33 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Bam McReynoldsMobile, ALRB0.6 pts70% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom UL Monroe
#7Ja'Vin SimpkinsMiami, FLRB0.5 pts65% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#64Cooper YoungDowningtown, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#77Keyon CoxPhenix City, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#79Samuel RiddyNorth Charleston, SCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#29Cam CunninghamPortage, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Youngstown State
#90Chris SpencerBurgaw, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#9Noah NelsonAtlanta, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#99Raymond MaciasLa Puente, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Campbell
#52Sterling SandersBlythewood, SCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#17Tylin JacksonFederal Way, WADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Washington
#4EJ ReidWoodbridge, VAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#6KJ DanielsFranklinton, LAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#0Ty MimsBay Minette, ALWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Texas State
#44Scott IsacksMetairie, LATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#87Sean PerssonSpanish Fork, UTTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#11Anta'Veon McKenzieStockton, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#1Darrell SweetingWest Palm Beach, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#24Diezel WilkinsonSpokane, WADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Montana
#21Draden FullbrightFort Worth, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#12Elijah PrattArlington, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#2Guylijah TheoduleMiami, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#25Jaylen ThompsonMurfreesboro, TNDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#13Jeremiah JordanCordova, TNDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#10Kris WokomahArlington, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#6Que BillingsleyPhenix City, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb
#1CJ SmithApopka, FLWR0.4 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#7Blanche GoldSpringdale, MDLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Morgan State
#33Braden SullivanNew Smyrna Beach, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Kentucky
#3Ike EsonwuneManor, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#14Mantrez WalkerBuford, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#4Marlin DeanElberton, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#35Muaaz ByardYork, PALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Middle Tennessee
#5Ryder BurtonSpringville, UTQB4.5 pts89% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Kaleb BrownChicago, ILWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#85Antonio FergusonApopka, FLTE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#9AJ JohnsonNew Orleans, LAWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#74Barry WalkerCordele, GAOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#68Adam LepkowskiHoover, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#57Aidan PlattAuburn, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbReturning
#75Calib PerezPearland, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#66Donovan LawrenceDacula, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 350 lbReturning
#59Jaden LigonLaGrange, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 340 lbReturning
#69Kade MartinTrussville, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#71Kyrik MasonColumbia, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#78Nelson RamirezNewnan, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 335 lbReturning
#51Payton KirklandOrlando, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#59Chris BurgeLeeds, ALDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#58J'Quan MasonMccalla, ALDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#56Myles CookMadison, ALDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#54Kyle MosleyAtlanta, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbReturning
#8Nigel TateWashington, DCDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
#12Jaylen ElderMadison, GAWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 160 lbReturning
#13CD GillSaraland, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 160 lbReturning
#14Jailen HolmesHuntsville, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#84Lamar WhiteSuwanee, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#83Levi BraytonLittleton, COWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbReturning
#80Malik MuhammadBirmingham, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#40Brayden JohnsonElba, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbReturning
#19Gabriel ClineMiami, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#5Delvon GulleySaraland, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#16Isaiah CrozierPickerington, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#18Julius Lane Jr.Montgomery, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbReturning
#37Love KirbyAnniston, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#43Braxtyn DaviesNewnan, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#26Gage MessickLuverne, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#49Jacoby BridgesBirmingham, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#48Phillip Davison Jr.Birmingham, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#30Amari BrundidgeBirmingham, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#22Drew PattersonNashville, TNRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning
#10Marquise CollinsBryan, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 210 lbReturning
#35Owen SimpsonBirmingham, ALPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#46Evan BishopHoover, ALLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#39Jonah DelangeMobile, ALPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#11Adrian PosseMiami, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#18Cam JenningsBirmingham, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#12Vanden DuggerDana Point, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#16Nate RogersWetumpka, ALQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#70Amos TalaleleSanta Clara, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 380 lbNew / unverified
#55Barrett MaddoxClinton, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#52Hudson ReedHoover, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#67Wes WigginsSmithville, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#15Elijah HallShelby, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#96Gavin NelsonBirmingham, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#81Bradley WainwrightHelena, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#17Brogan McnabMelbourne, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#15Jayden SkeltonThomaston, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#88Braden TeagueMontgomery, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#86Vili HaapsaloHelsinkiTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#36Chimenum AjinwoPelham, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#22Courage UgoRichmond, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#28Daimir HicksSpringfield, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#0Jo PierceMontgomery, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#27Jordin PriceOrange Park, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#23Mykale HrabowskiAdamsville, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#32Colby ArchieJackson, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#19Malachi CharacterThomaston, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#31Rhett CoferDora, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#21Hudson HigginsFlorence, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#26Jayson MollBixby, OKRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#28JR MosleyHoover, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#20Rashad RobinsonSan Diego, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#2Roderick Robinson IISan Diego, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#20Badger HargettLafayette, LAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#30Carson TinsleyHuntsville, ALP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#47Noah MedlenHarvest, ALLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1IllinoisNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 4M 18–35 · 17% win
AwaySep 39:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
UL MonroeNon-conference · Protective Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 62% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
LouisianaNon-conference · Cajun Field · 4M 25–29 · 42% win
AwaySep 198:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
NavyConference · Protective Stadium · 4M 30–25 · 38% win
HomeSep 257:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
SamfordNon-conference · Protective Stadium · 4M 17–37 · 87% win
HomeOct 33:30 PM EDT · model ↗6MemphisConference · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 31% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
East CarolinaConference · Protective Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 36% win
HomeOct 157:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
South FloridaConference · Raymond James Stadium · 4M 19–34 · 20% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
CharlotteConference · Protective Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 67% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
TempleConference · Lincoln Financial Field · 4M 25–29 · 41% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
UTSAConference · Protective Stadium · 4M 30–23 · 34% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
North TexasConference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 22–33 · 27% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UAB diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows UAB to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?