The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Colorado opens No. 75 nationally and No. 14 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.0 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.1 regular-season wins.
Colorado profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 41 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Colorado beats its 4.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachDeion Sanders16–21 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger42 in · 38 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#18Danny ScuderoSan Jose, CAWR0.9 pts69% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom San José State
#7Kam PerryMarietta, GAWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Miami (OH)
#3DeAndre Moore Jr.Bellflower, CAWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#4Ernest CampbellRefugio, TXWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 145 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#23JaQuail SmithOrlando, FLRB0.6 pts63% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#26Damian Henderson IILos Alamitos, CARB0.6 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#55Bo HughleyFairburn, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Georgia
#58Demetrius HunterOrange, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Houston
#75Jayven RichardsonGonzales, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#71Jayvon McFaddenUpper Marlboro, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#73Jose SotoTulare, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#57Leon BellDickinson, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom California
#62Sean KinneyNazareth, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Lafayette
#54Taj WhiteJersey City, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#9Richard YoungLehigh Acres, FLRB0.5 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#96Balansama KamaraPhiladelphia, PADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Albany
#52Immanuel EzeoguSuffolk, VADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#53Toby AneneSaint Paul, MNDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom North Dakota State
#95Yamil TalibRichardson, TXDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#99Dylan ManuelStockbridge, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom App State
#56Lamont Lester Jr.Ramsey, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Monmouth
#88Samu TaumanupepeHumble, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 375 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#97Santana HopperShelby, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#91Sedrick SmithAtlanta, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#90Tyler MooreLocust Grove, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#45Vili TaufatofuaAucklandDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom San José State
#89Fisher ClementsHattiesburg, MSTE0.4 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′7″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Northern Colorado
#6Boo CarterChattanooga, TNDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#20Cree ThomasPhoenix, AZDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#8Emory FloydPowder Springs, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom App State
#15Jah Jah BoydPhiladelphia, PADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Indiana
#13Jason Stokes Jr.Pflugerville, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#9Jaydan HardyLewisville, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#30Justin EaglinFayetteville, NCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#4Naeten MitchellTemple, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#18Paul OmodiaRichmond, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Lamar
#7Randon FontenetteFreeport, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#17Liona LefauKahuku, HILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#35Tyler MartinezAlbuquerque, NMLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#16Isaac WilsonDraper, UTQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#10Julian LewisCarrollton, GAQB4.2 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Joseph WilliamsArlington, TXWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#5Hykeem WilliamsFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#13Kaleb MathisArlington, TXWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning
#85Zach AtkinsOlathe, KSTE0.6 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#52Andre Roye Jr.District Heights, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#51Chauncey GoodenNashville, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 380 lbReturning
#78Hudson SteberEvergreen, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#53Larry Johnson IIISavannah, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 350 lbReturning
#56Phillip HoustonMckinney, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbReturning
#59Yahya AttiaLondonOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 340 lbReturning
#20DeKalon TaylorLongview, TXRB0.6 pts63% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning
#6Quentin GibsonFort Worth, TXWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbReturning
#41Kylan SalterCedar Hill, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#49Quency WigginsNapoleonville, LADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#29Micah WelchMilledgeville, GARB0.5 pts65% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 215 lbReturning
#36Carson WestbrookEllaville, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#22Tagert BardinHometown not listedWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbReturning
#86Brady KopetzPortland, ORTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#87Charlie WilliamsAspen, COTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#88Corbin LaisureBluff City, TNTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#83Zayne DeSouzaLoveland, COTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#28Ben FinnesethDurango, CODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#33Kole MathisArlington, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 140 lbReturning
#10Makari VickersTallahassee, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#5RJ JohnsonMcdonough, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#14Quanell Farrakhan Jr.Houston, TXWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#54Bo LaPennaCommerce City, COLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#55Gage GoldbergBoerne, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#34Titus BautistaChicago, ILRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#46Elliot ArnoldChattanooga, TNPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning
#35Damon GreavesBusseltonP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#38Daniel GerlachBoulder, COP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 160 lbReturning
#61Aiden DeCorteJackson, MILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning
#45Luke WhitingHolladay, UTLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#7Dominiq PonderOpa Locka, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbReturning
#72Xavier PayneCanandaigua, NYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#27Domata Peko Jr.Calabasas, CADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#92Sam GadieTrenton, NJDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#94Josiah ManuLoveland, CODL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#93Malachi BrownMilpitas, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#32Alex WardCarrollton, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#81Braedon BrennerMesa, AZWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#17Christian WardCarrollton, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#80Jacob SwainMelissa, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#82Ben GulaWeston, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#31Preston AshleyBrandon, MSCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#26Braylon EdwardsDuncanville, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#39Donavon StephensAlpharetta, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#34Drew MolinariSalinas, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#25Mojo Williams Jr.New Orleans, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#32Myles WestonPort Charlotte, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#27Bryce HicksAtlanta, GARB0.2 pts26% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#51Carson CrawfordCarthage, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#40Colby JohnsonSammamish, WALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#44Gideon ESPN LampronLagrange, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#50Rodney Colton Jr.Newnan, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#14Kaneal SweetwyneLehi, UTQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#28Cam NetwonProsper, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#47Cody JordanThe Woodlands, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#37Leonardo ValleRichmond Hill, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#39Cadel AyalaReno, NVPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#60Brady RadzEnglewood, COLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#64Nelson WilliamsChattanooga, TNLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#50Trey YoungSan Juan Capistrano, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Georgia TechNon-conference · Bobby Dodd Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 33% win
AwaySep 38:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Weber StateNon-conference · Folsom Field · 4M 15–37 · 88% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3NorthwesternNon-conference · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 34% win
AwaySep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
BaylorConference · McLane Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 35% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Texas TechConference · Folsom Field · 4M 31–17 · 22% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
UtahConference · Folsom Field · 4M 31–21 · 29% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Oklahoma StateConference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 53% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
Kansas StateConference · Folsom Field · 4M 29–23 · 37% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Arizona StateConference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 31% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
HoustonConference · Folsom Field · 4M 28–24 · 43% win
HomeNov 1310:15 PM EST · model ↗12
CincinnatiConference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 39% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
UCFConference · Folsom Field · 4M 25–27 · 54% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Colorado diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Colorado to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?