The 2026 outlook
Can a reloaded pass rush and more aggressive passing game return Georgia to the final?
Georgia opens No. 5 nationally and No. 1 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 22.0 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7.7 regular-season wins.
Georgia belongs in the championship conversation because the baseline expects control, not survival. Against most of the schedule, this roster should create an efficiency advantage without needing turnover luck or unsustainable red-zone results. The real evaluation begins when that advantage narrows against another top-15 team.
Stockton and the core of a balanced offense return. The defensive ceiling is higher if the rebuilt pressure package creates more disruption than last year's group.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 17 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Georgia can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 7.7-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Pressure pointGunner Stockton · QB2025: 12–2
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachKirby Smart65–7 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger9 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#6Isiah CanionWarner Robins, GAWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Tech
#79TyQuez RichardsonAtlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Alabama A&M
#22Dante DowdellPicayune, MSRB0.5 pts61% role · 76% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#12Ja'Marley RiddleKingsland, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#7Khalil BarnesAthens, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#24Braylon ConleyHouston, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom USC
#26Gentry WilliamsTulsa, OKDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#17Amaris WilliamsFayetteville, NCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#18Bryson BeaverMurrieta, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#14Gunner StocktonTiger, GAQB5.0 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#7Lawson LuckieNorcross, GATE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#16London HumphreysNashville, TNWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#3Nate FrazierCompton, CARB0.7 pts75% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbReturning
#10Elyiss WilliamsKingsland, GATE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′7″ · 255 lbReturning
#23Jaden ReddellRaymore, MOTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#11Jeremy BellHomerville, GAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#8Landon RoldanBogart, GAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#0Sacovie White-HeltonCartersville, GAWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#1Talyn TaylorGeneva, ILWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#50Cortez SmithLilburn, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#70Daniel CalhounMarietta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#65Dennis UzochukwuLawrenceville, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#63Dontrell GloverFairburn, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#74Drew BoboAuburn, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#71Earnest Greene IIILos Angeles, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#60Henry PeaglerBlackshear, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#64Jahzare JacksonSan Diego, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′10″ · 350 lbReturning
#73Juan GastonAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 360 lbReturning
#51Malachi ToliverCartersville, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#76Marcus HarrisonBuffalo, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 330 lbReturning
#75Mason ShortEvans, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#52Michael UiniKempner, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbReturning
#78Tate NelmsWoodstock, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#54Waltclaire Flynn Jr.Grayson, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#5Chauncey BowensPort Saint Lucie, FLRB0.6 pts66% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbReturning
#29Isaiah GibsonWarner Robins, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#91Justin GreeneDacula, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#81Josh HortonFairburn, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#55London SeymourSuwanee, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#67Clinton BarlowCharlotte, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#90Elijah GriffinPooler, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#96JJ HanneBerlinDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#44Jordan HallJacksonville, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#99Joseph Jonah-AjonyeShenandoah, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#88Nasir JohnsonDublin, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 340 lbReturning
#95Nnamdi OgbokoDurham, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 340 lbReturning
#94Xzavier McLeodCamden, SCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#37Benjamin McElreathMacon, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#4CJ WileyBaton Rouge, LAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#46Danny CurranMarietta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#36Jackson St. ClairPerry, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning
#2Thomas BlackshearSavannah, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#13Tyler J. WilliamsTampa, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#28Walter BlanchardColumbus, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#47Will TaylorMilton, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#82Colton HeinrichCoral Springs, FLTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#41David LalaianMonroe, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#9Ethan BarbourAlpharetta, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#16Maurice HayesPerry, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#26Daniel OkonkwoPowder Springs, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#14Rasean DinkinsWarner Robins, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#22Todd RobinsonValdosta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#2Zion BranchLas Vegas, NVS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#8Demello JonesSwainsboro, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#1Ellis Robinson IVNew Haven, CTDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#32Jaylan MorganMurfreesboro, TNDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#25Jontae GilbertAtlanta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#4KJ BoldenBuford, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#31Kyron JonesCharlotte, NCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#20Dwight Phillips Jr.Mableton, GARB0.4 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#24Bo WalkerEllenwood, GARB0.4 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 210 lbReturning
#13AJ KruahPhiladelphia, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#85Chase LintonAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#9Chris ColeSalem, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#11Darren IkinnagbonHillside, NJLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#48Duncan CarpenterDalton, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#45Eli BarrowCedartown, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbReturning
#0Gabe Harris Jr.Thomasville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#19Justin WilliamsConroe, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#3Quintavius JohnsonAtlanta, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbReturning
#5Raylen WilsonTallahassee, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 235 lbReturning
#30Terrell FosterKennesaw, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#10Zayden WalkerEllaville, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#26Micah BellHouston, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#31Wade PennAtlanta, GARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#91Peyton WoodringLafayette, LAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#98Connor FergusonSavannah, GAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbReturning
#94Henry BatesWaycross, GAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#93Carter HortonPerry, GAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbReturning
#90Drew MillerMediapolis, IAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#39Will SnellingsFayetteville, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#12Ryan PuglisiPaxton, MAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#17Colter GinnPerry, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#19Hezekiah MillenderGoodyear, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#15Ryan MontgomeryFindlay, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#55Zykie HeltonCarrollton, GAC0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#72Ekene OgbokoDurham, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#69Graham HoustonBuford, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#66Tyreek JemisonDallas, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#53Zach LewisSuwanee, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#38AJ Lonon Jr.Athens, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#41Carter LuckieNorcross, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#33PJ DeanWinston-Salem, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#92Preston CareyBradenton, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#52Valdin SoneMalmoDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#83Brody TolbertAthens, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#81Craig DandridgeMemphis, TNWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#84Dallas DickersonAthens, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#85Ryan MosleyCarrollton, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#88Brayden FogleLexington, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#80Kaiden ProthroBowdon, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#87Lincoln KeyesSaline, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#27Blake StewartAtlanta, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#23Tyriq GreenAtlanta, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#20Zech FortLong Beach, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#18Caden HarrisBrownsville, TNDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#28Jordan SmithWarner Robins, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#35Elijah LittlejohnCharlotte, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#15Khamari BrooksBogart, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#42Nick Abrams IIBaltimore, MDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#45Terrence Penick Jr.Snellville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#25Jake BoboAthens, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#27Jae LamarMoultrie, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#99Harran ZureikatPittsburgh, PAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#97Wade RegisterDublin, GAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Tennessee StateNon-conference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 4–49 · 99% win
HomeSep 53:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Western KentuckyNon-conference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 15–37 · 89% win
HomeSep 1212:45 PM EDT · model ↗3
ArkansasConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 34–22 · 74% win
AwaySep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
OklahomaConference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 20–29 · 68% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
VanderbiltConference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 23–33 · 71% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
AlabamaConference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 55% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
AuburnConference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 73% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
FloridaConference · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 71% win
NeutralOct 313:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
Ole MissConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 28–26 · 55% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
MissouriConference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 20–30 · 71% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
South CarolinaConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 67% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Georgia TechNon-conference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 19–35 · 81% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case6 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint8 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case10 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Georgia diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionCan a reloaded pass rush and more aggressive passing game return Georgia to the final?