The 2026 outlook
Can the defending champion reproduce its efficiency with a more talented but newly blended roster?
Indiana opens No. 4 nationally and No. 3 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 22.7 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 8.2 regular-season wins.
Indiana belongs in the championship conversation because the baseline expects control, not survival. Against most of the schedule, this roster should create an efficiency advantage without needing turnover luck or unsustainable red-zone results. The real evaluation begins when that advantage narrows against another top-15 team.
Cignetti retained the program's structural advantages and attacked the portal again. Hoover steps into an offense that scored 666 points last season, making fit and immediate decision-making more important than raw ability.
The schedule grades No. 36 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Indiana beats its 8.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Pressure pointJosh Hoover · QB2025: 16–0
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachCurt Cignetti46–6 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#10Josh HooverHeath, TXQB5.2 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom TCU
#11Nick MarshDetroit, MIWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#1Turbo RichardCharlotte, NCRB0.7 pts76% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#7Shazz PrestonSaint James, LAWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#56Joe BrunnerWhitefish Bay, WIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#7Chiddi ObiazorEden Prairie, MNDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 279 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#90Joe HjelleDecorah, IADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 318 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa
#12Tobi OsunsanmiWichita, KSDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#88Brock SchottFort Wayne, INTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 241 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#4A.J. HarrisPhenix City, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#0Carson WilliamsHouston, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Montana State
#6Preston ZachmanElysburg, PADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#19Billy GowersMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Hawai'i
#49Drew ClausenGrimes, IALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#35Paddy McAteerMullaghbawnPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Troy
#80Charlie BeckerNashville, TNWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 207 lbReturning
#29Lee Beebe Jr.Montgomery, ALRB0.7 pts67% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 218 lbReturning
#72Adedamola AjaniSpeedway, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 308 lbReturning
#70Austin LeibfriedMount Horeb, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#61Baylor WilkinVan Buren, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 289 lbReturning
#74Bray LynchAustin, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 298 lbReturning
#65Carter SmithPowell, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 313 lbReturning
#64Chance JohnsonJeffersonville, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 307 lbReturning
#62Drew EvansFort Atkinson, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 307 lbReturning
#66Evan ParkerCarmel, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 299 lbReturning
#77Matt MarekOrland Park, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#17Daniel NdukweLithonia, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbReturning
#50Jhrevious HallColumbia, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#41Keishaun CalhounGroveport, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbReturning
#94Kyler GarciaNashville, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbReturning
#97Mario LandinoMacungie, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 288 lbReturning
#40Quentin ClarkDexter, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 221 lbReturning
#8Stephen DaleyWinchester, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 273 lbReturning
#95Tyrique TuckerNorfolk, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 307 lbReturning
#99Tyrone Burrus Jr.Indianapolis, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#6Lebron BondNorfolk, VAWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning
#86Bruno Massel IVElmhurst, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbReturning
#26Cade KaiserBatesville, INWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 214 lbReturning
#4Davion ChandlerIndianapolis, INWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbReturning
#83Hunter StroudMartinsville, INWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbReturning
#17Jackson WasserstromWestfield, INWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 177 lbReturning
#82Myles KendrickJacksonville, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Tyler MorrisBolingbrook, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 186 lbReturning
#85Andrew BarkerKokomo, INTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#84Blake ThiryPrairie Du Chien, WITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 236 lbReturning
#1Amare FerrellLake City, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#31Anthony ChungMequon, WIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 199 lbReturning
#2Byron Baldwin Jr.Baltimore, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#36Clay ConnerBoonville, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 206 lbReturning
#33Garrett ReeseChicago, ILDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#37Heath KizerIndianapolis, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 203 lbReturning
#22Jamari SharpeMiami, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbReturning
#3Jaylen BellUnion, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 169 lbReturning
#45Lincoln MurffIndianapolis, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbReturning
#10Ryland GandyBuford, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbReturning
#9Seaonta Stewart Jr.Cincinnati, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#19Zacharey SmithUnion City, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#44Amari KamaraAshburn, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbReturning
#52Clayton AllenFishers, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbReturning
#46Isaiah JonesLondon, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#34Jeff UtzingerCarmel, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbReturning
#38Kaden McConnellGreenwood, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbReturning
#14Kaiden TurnerFayetteville, ARLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 228 lbReturning
#30PJ NelsonCincinnati, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 219 lbReturning
#5Rolijah HardyLakeland, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 227 lbReturning
#28Khobie MartinFishers, INRB0.4 pts52% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 204 lbReturning
#20Sean CuonoClearwater, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 193 lbReturning
#43Bryce TaylorBloomington, INPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbReturning
#90Josh PlaczekCarmel, INPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbReturning
#15Nico RadicicCoppell, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#93Quinn WarrenIndianapolis, INPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 214 lbReturning
#45Sam LindseyLilburn, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#2Grant WilsonArlington, VAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 218 lbReturning
#12Jacob BellNaperville, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#14Maverick GeskeIndianapolis, INQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#71Ben NovakCrown Point, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 317 lbNew / unverified
#60CJ ScifresBargersville, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbNew / unverified
#75Sam SimpsonRiver Falls, WIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 304 lbNew / unverified
#91Blake SmytheTrafalgar, INDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 283 lbNew / unverified
#98Cam McHaneyIndianapolis, INDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#92Gabe HillNaperville, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 289 lbNew / unverified
#8Josh BurnhamTraverse City, MIDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#42Kevontay HuganSarasota, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#55Rodney WhiteBaltimore, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 296 lbNew / unverified
#93Ronelle JohnsonKansas City, MODL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 266 lbNew / unverified
#3Kortez RupertEast Saint Louis, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 163 lbNew / unverified
#18Parker ElmoreColumbus, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbNew / unverified
#39Trevor GibbsCrown Point, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 241 lbNew / unverified
#25D'Montae TimsTampa, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#16Jamar OwensJonesboro, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#27Kasmir HicksIndianapolis, INDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#13Quan SanksColumbus, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#23Henry OhlingerColumbus, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
#24Ja'Dyn WilliamsMassillon, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 211 lbNew / unverified
#21Jacob SavageUnion, KYLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 222 lbNew / unverified
#15Tyler CherryGreenwood, INQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#22Jayreon CampbellPowder Springs, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#47Jackson TolleFishers, INLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1North TexasNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 18–37 · 86% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
HowardNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 3–49 · 99% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Western KentuckyNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 15–37 · 89% win
HomeSep 194:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
NorthwesternConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 18–34 · 82% win
HomeSep 258:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
RutgersConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 35–20 · 79% win
AwayOct 38:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
NebraskaConference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 32–21 · 74% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Ohio StateConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 26–25 · 46% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
MichiganConference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 61% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
MinnesotaConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 17–35 · 84% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗11
USCConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 23–31 · 66% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
WashingtonConference · Husky Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 58% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
PurdueConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 16–37 · 87% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case6 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint8 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case10 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Indiana diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionCan the defending champion reproduce its efficiency with a more talented but newly blended roster?