The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
Troy opens No. 103 nationally and No. 7 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.6 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.1 regular-season wins.
Troy begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 109 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Troy beats its 5.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachGerad Parker12–14 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger14 in · 27 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#77Darion RiversCharlotte, NCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 323 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#55Jordon JonesAshland, KYOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Ohio
#51Luke PetitAkron, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 299 lbTransfer infrom Furman
#15TJ LottPahokee, FLWR0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 163 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#25Kavion HendersonLeeds, ALDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 256 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#11Ty ClemonsDecatur, ALDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#14Jonathan PennixConcord, VACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#10Knai CookDuncan, SCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Charleston Southern
#8Marcus Goree Jr.Chattanooga, TNS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#2Bryce SteeleRaleigh, NCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#3Jaheim MerriweatherJackson, TNRB0.3 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Purdue
#33Ethan HeadGlen Ellyn, ILPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#16Jalen BallardBrandon, MSPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#9Goose CrowderGardendale, ALQB2.7 pts53% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 214 lbReturning
#10Tucker KilcreaseBrantley, ALQB2.3 pts46% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbReturning
#5Mojo DortchLucedale, MSWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 167 lbReturning
#88Jackson WorleyWest Palm Beach, FLTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 236 lbReturning
#54Caleb AshAtlanta, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 301 lbReturning
#58Elijah PratherLaVERGNE, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbReturning
#50Gavin BowlinLeeds, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 323 lbReturning
#66Jatorian BlackmonLaGrange, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#57Noah MercerMarianna, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbReturning
#72Patrick Screws Jr.Eufaula, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#56Sharvon PierreWaycross, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 283 lbReturning
#74Tra'jon TownsendLos Angeles, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 292 lbReturning
#73Tyler BellMemphis, TNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 319 lbReturning
#65Tyler CappiPriceville, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#25Dennis PalmerJensen Beach, FLRB0.6 pts64% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 197 lbReturning
#41Makel GreenPhenix City, ALDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 242 lbReturning
#69Jermaine ParamoreSaraland, ALDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#0Kam CurryMidland, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 302 lbReturning
#40RJ ShambergerMonroeville, ALDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 301 lbReturning
#81Jah'Marren JacksonMc Kenzie, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 201 lbReturning
#2Jywon BoydTroy, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 178 lbReturning
#7Kristian TateSeat Pleasant, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 171 lbReturning
#13Ky McNultyBay Minette, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbReturning
#85Fabian RogoschHamburgTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 243 lbReturning
#80JT TangSydney, NSWTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#14Marquis HarrisShreveport, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 264 lbReturning
#1Jabari StraitMccalla, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#17Marlin OdomLucedale, MSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 179 lbReturning
#12Shemar WelchMobile, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 162 lbReturning
#16Antonious SteeleCentreville, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbReturning
#29Joe LottMobile, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 192 lbReturning
#19Jon BocchinoNiceville, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 201 lbReturning
#6Justin PoweMobile, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#27OJ Vaughan Jr.Brooklyn, NYS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 189 lbReturning
#22Donnie SmithGreenville, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 234 lbReturning
#45Jordan FerrellLawrenceville, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 221 lbReturning
#1Jordan LovettStatesboro, GARB0.4 pts61% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbReturning
#13DayDay NelsonTempe, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 203 lbReturning
#46Gavyn BakerMoody, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning
#18Jordan PerryJefferson, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 219 lbReturning
#23JT AlvisHelena, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#20Keyshawn CampbellVero Beach, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 213 lbReturning
#44Luke HodgeOneonta, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#4TJ ThompsonBolton, MSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 219 lbReturning
#21AC WaltersMontgomery, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 199 lbReturning
#26DeWhitt Betterson Jr.Ocala, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbReturning
#20Jaden TynesKansas City, MOPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 178 lbReturning
#49Austin LewisHelena, ALP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbReturning
#28Evan CrenshawPonte Vedra Beach, FLP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 184 lbReturning
#87Colton WallsMillbrook, ALLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 237 lbReturning
#24Kinnick ManleyFirestone, COLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbReturning
#6Jack JamesPaducah, KYQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbReturning
#71Antwone BrelandHattiesburg, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#79Corey DudleyMarrero, LAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 353 lbNew / unverified
#75Parks GlazeFairhope, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#67Trinton PritchettAuburn, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#98Delvin WhitakerSaint Francisville, LADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#34Dontaye BushMobile, ALDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#88Will NormanCamden, NJDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 297 lbNew / unverified
#99Jaxon Villegez-WilliamsMobile, ALDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 293 lbNew / unverified
#52Kendall RoseberryConyers, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 287 lbNew / unverified
#95Miquon MerriweatherColumbus, GADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#93RaKeem DavisPort Gibson, MSDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 313 lbNew / unverified
#84Andrew LeslieConyers, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#82Dylan DensonMiami Gardens, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#12Hayden JacksonDouglasville, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 162 lbNew / unverified
#18Howard KinchenLafayette, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#17Jace PettyFrisco, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#4Noreel WhiteMoss Point, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#8TK KeyesTaylorsville, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#89Jacorey WhittedMccalla, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 278 lbNew / unverified
#86Jayvin BennettBuford, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#19Nick HamptonGulf Shores, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#28Jaxon PennFlorence, ALCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#32Jermaine MccreeMobile, ALCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 166 lbNew / unverified
#7Jordan TurnerGoose Creek, SCCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#21Tai TerrellSaint Rose, LACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#36Hank JamesPaducah, KYS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#9Jamarion KeyesLaurel, MSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#30Keivay FosterMuscle Shoals, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#53Ashton DiggsLoganville, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#5Lonnie SmithJackson, MSDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#3Doug NelsonHazlehurst, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbNew / unverified
#24Jeremiah RouxJonesboro, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbNew / unverified
#35KD ReynoldsMontgomery, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#15Keno JonesRocky Mount, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbNew / unverified
#31Ronald WilderEutaw, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 233 lbNew / unverified
#11Rodge WaldropThomasville, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#22Bryce BurgessHouston, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 163 lbNew / unverified
#0Gavin GriffinCanton, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#38Hayden WolfeClinton, MSPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 161 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Sam HoustonNon-conference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 21–30 · 70% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Alabama StateNon-conference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 19–31 · 75% win
HomeSep 124:00 PM EDT · model ↗3MissouriNon-conference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 16–34 · 15% win
AwaySep 1912:45 PM EDT · model ↗4
Utah StateNon-conference · Maverik Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 37% win
AwaySep 267:30 PM EDT · model ↗6
Southern MissConference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 25–26 · 52% win
HomeOct 68:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
LouisianaConference · Cajun Field · 4M 25–26 · 47% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
UL MonroeConference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 22–29 · 65% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
James MadisonConference · Bridgeforth Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 26% win
AwayOct 297:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
Louisiana TechConference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 25–25 · 50% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
South AlabamaConference · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 47% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Georgia SouthernConference · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 4M 26–28 · 54% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Arkansas StateConference · Centennial Bank Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 49% win
AwayNov 283:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Troy diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Troy to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?