The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
Missouri opens No. 21 nationally and No. 9 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 11.9 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.1 regular-season wins.
Missouri grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 12 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Missouri can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 6.1-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachEli Drinkwitz41–24 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger30 in · 27 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#13Austin SimmonsMiami, FLQB1.1 pts19% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#24Xai'Shaun EdwardsLeague City, TXRB0.8 pts81% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Houston Christian
#2Caleb GoodieBreaux Bridge, LAWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#19Cayden LeeKennesaw, GAWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#72Colin SorensenNiceville, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Charleston Southern
#54Josh AtkinsArlington, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#51Luke WorkSomerville, TNOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#55Will KemnaEldon, MOOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 268 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#55Cavan TuleyTomball, TXEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Houston
#97CJ MayHighland Home, ALEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#13Jaden JonesMontgomery, ALEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 257 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#29Kamauryn MorganDallas, TXEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#12Malik BryantOrlando, FLEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#8Donta SimpsonHollywood, FLDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#57Mark HensleyWashington, MODT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#0Naeshaun MontgomeryCentral Falls, RIWR0.5 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#17Kenric Lanier IIDecatur, GAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Minnesota
#1Chris Graves Jr.Fort Myers, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#21Jahlil FlorenceSan Diego, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#2Sione LauleaMountain View, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#22Elijah DotsonDetroit, MIS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#18JaDon BlairWinston-Salem, NCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#7Kensley Louidor-FaustinNaples, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#21Malae FonotiLaie, HIRB0.4 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Montana
#16Bobby WashingtonMiami, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Miami
#0Robert Woodyard Jr.Mobile, ALLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#40Brunno ReusSarasota, FLPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#34Mark ShenoudaMount Juliet, TNP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee State
#10Nick EversFlower Mound, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#5Matt ZollersRoyersford, PAQB3.3 pts78% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 214 lbReturning
#29Ahmad HardyOma, MSRB0.9 pts91% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#1Donovan OlugbodeChicago, ILWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbReturning
#87Brett NorfleetO' Fallon, MOTE0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#20Jamal RobertsSaint Louis, MORB0.7 pts71% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#86Jordon HarrisPine Bluff, ARTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 268 lbReturning
#70Cayden GreenLee's Summit, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 324 lbReturning
#63Chace MissouriMc Donough, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 316 lbReturning
#77Curtis PeaglerDemopolis, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 338 lbReturning
#56Dominick GiudiceFreehold, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbReturning
#75Jack LangeEureka, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 305 lbReturning
#64Joe SchranzKearney, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbReturning
#66Logan ReichertKansas City, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 344 lbReturning
#71Ryan JostesWashington, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 317 lbReturning
#73Tristan WilsonLebanon, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbReturning
#74Whit HaferJoplin, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 301 lbReturning
#96Aidan DubbertColumbia, MOEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 242 lbReturning
#10Daeden HopkinsHermann, MOEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 237 lbReturning
#19Darris SmithBaxley, GAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#11Langden KitchenHuntsville, MOEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 264 lbReturning
#91Elias WilliamsNew Port Richey, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#99Jadon FrickOrlando, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 265 lbReturning
#95Jalen MarshallOverland Park, KSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 335 lbReturning
#92Jason DowellCahokia, ILDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 306 lbReturning
#3Marquis GracialSaint Louis, MODT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 322 lbReturning
#94Sam WilliamsHogansville, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#3DaMarion FowlkesMontgomery Village, MDWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 184 lbReturning
#32Gavin WyattWarrensburg, MOWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 194 lbReturning
#80Jayden BoltonFrisco, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 193 lbReturning
#81Noah FlaskampCollierville, TNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 203 lbReturning
#4Shaun Terry IIIronton, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#84Adam MolitorMinneapolis, MNTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 221 lbReturning
#88Gavin HoffmanLeawood, KSTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 239 lbReturning
#20Cameron KeysPanama City, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#31Nasir PogueAuburn, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#24Nick DeLoach Jr.Cahokia, ILCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbReturning
#30CJ Bass IIISt. Louis, MOS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbReturning
#34Jackson HancockCanton, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#15Santana BannerFlint, MIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#4Trajen GrecoBuford, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbReturning
#89Jude JamesSaint Charles, MOTE0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 236 lbReturning
#17Brian HuffJonesboro, ARLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 218 lbReturning
#9Dante McClellanCanton, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbReturning
#46Jackson DailyAlma, ARLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 234 lbReturning
#25Jason KingSt. Louis, MOLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbReturning
#6Jeremiah BeasleyBelleville, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 237 lbReturning
#5Nicholas RodriguezMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#53Tommy ReeseNewport Beach, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 217 lbReturning
#31Anthony FavrowSan Clemente, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 206 lbReturning
#26Brady HultmanSaint Charles, MORB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#48Oliver RobbinsHometown not listedPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#43John ButcherSan Diego, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 217 lbReturning
#49Brett Le BlancElkhorn, WILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 214 lbReturning
#38Henry CrosbyMemphis, TNLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#36Sean GrossSt. Louis, MOLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbReturning
#19Blake CraigKansas City, MOPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#14Brett BrownBrentwood, TNQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#69Braylon EllisonBoonville, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 284 lbNew / unverified
#65Brysen WessellJackson, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#78DJ JonesBradenton, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#58Khalief Canty Jr.Detroit, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 311 lbNew / unverified
#52Zach OwensMcdonough, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#52Demarcus JohnsonRoseland, LAEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 271 lbNew / unverified
#93Jocques FelixSt. Louis, MODT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#90Tajh OvertonOwasso, OKDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#33Derrick McBride IILakeland, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#12Devyon Hill-LomaxEdwardsville, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#11Jabari BradyNorth Lauderdale, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
#82Karsten FieneLee's Summit, MOWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#18Isaac JensenOmaha, NETE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#26Jaxson GatesFontana, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 169 lbNew / unverified
#29Trashundon NealLiberty, MOCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#32Brody JonesFayetteville, ARS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#30Carter StewartPearland, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#28Jayden McGregoryWest Des Moines, IAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#32Maddux HermestroffMundelein, ILS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#35Ahmod BillinsAbbeville, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#33JJ BushMobile, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#38Keenan HarrisSt. Louis, MOLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#7Gavin SidwarWyndmoor, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#22Max WarnerChicago, ILRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#28Preston HatfieldLee's Summit, MORB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Arkansas-Pine BluffNon-conference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 7–44 · 98% win
HomeSep 38:00 PM EDT · model ↗2KansasNon-conference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 59% win
AwaySep 118:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
TroyNon-conference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 16–34 · 85% win
HomeSep 1912:45 PM EDT · model ↗4
Mississippi StateConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 28–22 · 61% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
FloridaConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 62% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Texas A&MConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 46% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Ole MissConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 39% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
ArkansasConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 60% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
TexasConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 46% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
GeorgiaConference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 20–30 · 29% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
KentuckyConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 20–29 · 70% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
OklahomaConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 24–24 · 51% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Missouri diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Missouri's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?