The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
Maryland opens No. 69 nationally and No. 16 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 0.0 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.5 regular-season wins.
Maryland sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 34 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Maryland beats its 4.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMike Locksley31–32 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger14 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#6Cardell WilliamsHouston, TXQB2.5 pts45% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#1Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingBrooklyn, NYWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#13Chris Durr Jr.Chicago, ILWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 173 lbTransfer infrom Wyoming
#26Terrez WorthySalisbury, MDRB0.6 pts58% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Temple
#55Tellek LocketteMiami, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 327 lbTransfer infrom Texas State
#95Armon ParkerDetroit, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#88Derrick LeBlancOpa Locka, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#97Jayvon ParkerDetroit, MIDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#99Lavon JohnsonAllentown, PADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#8Preston HowardArbutus, MDTE0.4 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#24Amari JacksonMcdonough, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#25Harry Dalton IIIDinwiddie, VARB0.4 pts42% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom USC
#19Stephen Dean IIIMineral, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom VMI
#7Malik WashingtonGlen Burnie, MDQB2.8 pts55% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 231 lbReturning
#2Kaleb WebbPowder Springs, GAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 201 lbReturning
#0DeJuan WilliamsBaltimore, MDRB0.7 pts83% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#11Ryan ManningGlenn Dale, MDWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbReturning
#9Dorian FlemingHenrico, VATE0.7 pts59% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#64Aaron FoliviLaurel, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#77Amory HillsBaltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbReturning
#78Anthony RobsockHarrisburg, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbReturning
#72Ben BeymerAuburndale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 317 lbReturning
#68Carlos MooreBowie, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#73Davon WatkinsBaltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 316 lbReturning
#74Isaiah WrightNorth Plainfield, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#70Jaylen GilchristVirginia Beach, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 299 lbReturning
#54Lamar WilliamsMidway, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 290 lbReturning
#69Logan BennettBaltimore, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#61Michael HersheySpring Grove, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#51Michael McMonigleYork, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 297 lbReturning
#76Rahtrel PerryNew London, CTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 317 lbReturning
#71Ryan HowertonLaurel, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 332 lbReturning
#50Trevor SzymanskiTimonium, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 289 lbReturning
#57Bryce JenkinsHyattsville, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 350 lbReturning
#56DD HolmesWashington, DCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 263 lbReturning
#90Delmar WhiteMillersville, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 340 lbReturning
#50EJ Moore Jr.Decatur, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 292 lbReturning
#98Eyan ThomasChichester, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 328 lbReturning
#44Joel StarlingsRichmond, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbReturning
#58Joshua SimmonsFort Washington, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 286 lbReturning
#40Nahsir TaylorSuitland, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 258 lbReturning
#11Sidney StewartJoppa, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#9Zahir MathisPhiladelphia, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 222 lbReturning
#83Emerson SmithStowe, VTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#14Jordan ScottLynchburg, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 220 lbReturning
#88Justin DeVaughnBaltimore, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 166 lbReturning
#21Sean WilliamsWashington, DCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 178 lbReturning
#10Zymear SmithRidgely, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 178 lbReturning
#39Daniel OwensPikesville, MDTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 266 lbReturning
#85JT TaggartBowling Green, KYTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 236 lbReturning
#84Thomas McCluskeyNew Fairfield, CTTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 245 lbReturning
#18Alex MooreBeltsville, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbReturning
#6Dontay JoynerLakeland, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#7Gavin EdwardsAlvin, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbReturning
#4Jamare GlaskerTemple Hills, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#12Jayden ShippsSevern, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 182 lbReturning
#21Judah JenkinsOlney, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#2Lavain ScruggsBaltimore, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#15Lloyd Irvin IIISpringdale, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 196 lbReturning
#8Mekhai WhiteKing George, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 201 lbReturning
#33Messiah DelhommeNewport News, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbReturning
#25Ricardo Cooper Jr.Baltimore, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning
#38Taylor BestChevy Chase, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbReturning
#89AJ SzymanskiTimonium, MDTE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 244 lbReturning
#32Carlton SmithNorfolk, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning
#49Chris WellsWashington, DCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 246 lbReturning
#1Daniel WingateBowie, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#48Darius GrimesUpper Marlboro, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 221 lbReturning
#53Kellen McConnellKensington, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 232 lbReturning
#35Keyari JamesCalgary, ABLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbReturning
#30Travares Daniels IIMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 213 lbReturning
#3Trey ReddickHampton, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 218 lbReturning
#45Solomon FoyeElkton, MDRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#24Iverson HowardGaithersburg, MDRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#20DJ SamuelsEnglewood, NJFB0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 238 lbReturning
#36Sean O'HaireKildarePK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 188 lbReturning
#34Bryce McFersonIndian Trail, NCP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 191 lbReturning
#43Philip NoyesPittsford, NYP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbReturning
#97Luke O'HareHyattsville, MDLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#15Jackson HamiltonHouston, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#75Day'Jon MooreOak Cliff, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#57Jesse MoodyPhiladelphia, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 345 lbNew / unverified
#67Jonathan PanagouSouth Hamilton, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#66Teagan CoxLusby, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#10Cam Brickle IIPhiladelphia, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#54JaMarcus WhyceDayton, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#34Jianni DavisBowie, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#0Zion EleeBaltimore, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#80Ejani ShakirPennsauken, NJWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#17Jayden KitchensForestville, MDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#18Josiah TeasleySpringfield, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#86Brayden MarkoNew Market, MDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#16Damon Hall Jr.Baltimore, MDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#81Javonte WilliamsDamascus, MDTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#5Darrell CareyWashington, DCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#26Hakim SatterwhiteBowie, MDDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#20Ontario Washington Jr.Stafford, VADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#14Sean JohnsonSeverna Park, MDDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#22Zahir CobbWashington, DCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#23Jordan WilliamsHouston, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#27Kaden CarterBarnesville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#22Jack CapaldiMalvern, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#23Max LawrenceHialeah, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#12Nathan BernhardAshland, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#29Liam WillsonReston, VARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#98Daniel LeahyDublinPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#86Eli FulcherWinston-Salem, NCPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#59Rory KnippPittsburgh, PALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1HamptonNon-conference · SECU Stadium · 4M 11–40 · 94% win
HomeSep 58:00 PM EDT · model ↗2UConnNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 54% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Virginia TechNon-conference · SECU Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 52% win
HomeSep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
UCLAConference · SECU Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 54% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
NebraskaConference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 23–29 · 37% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
Ohio StateConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 13–37 · 10% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
RutgersConference · SECU Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 52% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
IllinoisConference · SECU Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 43% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
PurdueConference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 48% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
WisconsinConference · SECU Stadium · 4M 24–25 · 53% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
USCConference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 18–34 · 19% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Penn StateConference · SECU Stadium · 4M 30–21 · 32% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Maryland diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Maryland's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?