The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Toledo opens No. 70 nationally and No. 1 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 0.1 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7.3 regular-season wins.
Toledo profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 131. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMike Jacobs0–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Jason Candle
Portal ledger33 in · 38 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#1Rico BondSt. Louis, MOWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.— · 177 lbTransfer infrom Lindenwood
#22CJ MillerGadsden, ALRB0.7 pts76% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#3Adjatay DabbsGreeneville, TNWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#9Kalvin Gilbert Jr.Jacksonville, FLWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Southeast Missouri State
#7Khamoni RobinsonMonroe, NCQB0.6 pts13% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Lenoir-Rhyne
#74Ahmad CarwisePiedmont, SCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb
#69Dominic JohnsonOcala, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#78Dylan SendaLivonia, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 303 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#50Luke RectorValdese, NCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb
#70Nick ThomasEast Orange, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 311 lbTransfer infrom Rhode Island
#0Andrew ZockCitra, FLDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#21Ben SahakianMount Prospect, ILDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Cornell
#2Ezra OdinjorKennesaw, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#90Zach JohnsonOcala, FLDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#99Caden CameseBellevue, NEDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#81Ethan MalafaCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Butler
#20Corey SmithMilwaukee, WIRB0.4 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#85Anthony SimpsonHartford, CTWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#87Tucker KelleherAlpharetta, GATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom BYU
#1Cam JonesReading, PACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#23Israel PetiteMacedonia, OHCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Robert Morris
#8KJ ThomasConyers, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#20LaDavion OsbornTyler, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Northern Colorado
#7Armorion SmithRiver Rouge, MIS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#4Donovan WatkinsWinnsboro, SCS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#17Kaleb HutchinsonAugusta, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#12Mo ContehColumbus, OHS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Ohio Dominican
#13Kari JacksonWest Bloomfield, MILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#4Autavius IsonAtlanta, GARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#93Reice GriffithPace, FLPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#47Markus MeinckeHamburgP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#49Max AllenHolly Springs, NCLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#6John Alan RichterGray, GAQB1.8 pts45% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#13Jake DeHaanByron Center, MIQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 203 lbReturning
#11Walter MosesPerry, OHQB0.9 pts21% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 190 lbReturning
#5Terrell Crosby Jr.Saint Petersburg, FLWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbReturning
#67Cade WilhelmiBerkley, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#62Christian MedlockHomewood, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 304 lbReturning
#63Grant ZimmerlyPerrysburg, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 292 lbReturning
#55Ibrahim TraoreBronx, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 297 lbReturning
#56Jacob KropchakRochester Hills, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 296 lbReturning
#60Jake GrimmGahanna, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#73Jonathan HarderDelaware, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning
#71Matt HoferValparaiso, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 288 lbReturning
#65Stephen GalesAlliance, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbReturning
#85Josh LeeToledo, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 238 lbReturning
#53Samuel TonioloAvon, OHDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#92Tommy HussBedford, MIDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 227 lbReturning
#35Bryant Weatherspoon Jr.Detroit, MIDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#41Cam GwinnColumbus, OHDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 256 lbReturning
#48Jordin FarrowInkster, MIDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbReturning
#91Laith ShammaAnn Arbor, MIDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 280 lbReturning
#52Lucas Lambert-PipkinCranberry Township, PADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#96Nathaniel ChandlerSmyrna, DEDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 269 lbReturning
#95Wayne Peart IIPembroke Pines, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbReturning
#43Sam LeeToledo, OHTE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 238 lbReturning
#12Bryson HammerFremont, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#13Cooper RuskMacedonia, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#19Daryl Barnett Jr.Toledo, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#83Omar Mims Jr.East St. Louis, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbReturning
#14Tashi BracefulSouthfield, MIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 187 lbReturning
#11Hyajah MillerNorth Lauderdale, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning
#25Tyrell RussellColumbus, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#33Andrew FineskeSylvania, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#39Dylan HohlerHuron, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 196 lbReturning
#15Michael-Arinze EzirimDublin, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbReturning
#22Nicholas ThompsonFort Wayne, INS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning
#26Tyler HackenbrachtMassillon, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#5Damon Ollison IIAkron, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 224 lbReturning
#44Isaac ZayFort Wayne, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#6Langston LongWoodbridge, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#31Maddox ArnoldCincinnati, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#28Sam Smith Jr.Delta, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 223 lbReturning
#8Connor WalendzakPerrysburg, OHRB0.4 pts59% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 208 lbReturning
#27Dane NaumanMarengo, OHRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#28Kadale WilliamsJackson, MIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#23Noah SandersFranklin, MIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#39Anthony RugglesYoungstown, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#29Tanner RubinsteinNapoleon, OHFB0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#36Emilio DuranOttawa Hills, OHP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#80Peyton StricklandGoffstown, NHTE0.4 pts26% role · 52% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#2Trenton JonesHastings, FLWR0.3 pts25% role · 52% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#58Jake PaluckiTinley Park, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#75Preston DazeyMassillon, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#76Vincenzo PizzoSaint Clair Shores, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#88Jacob NewellSpringfield, ORTE0.3 pts26% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#97Brian Stovall Jr.Romulus, MIDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbNew / unverified
#37Desmond OkanteyWesterville, OHDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#51Zackery SamuelSarasota, FLDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 251 lbNew / unverified
#98Micah Fils-AimeNaples, FLDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#43Tyrell O'NealGarfield Heights, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#93Leonard SharpBedford, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 283 lbNew / unverified
#10Seth ElchertFindlay, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#24Bo JacobsFairburn, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#38Clarence TuckerSan Diego, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#3Sharard Vaughn IIIMaumee, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#27Ziiyahn BlairAkron, OHS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#30Hayden RoyLyons, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#19Isaac PrinceSnellville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#29Jordan FoxCordele, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#10Julian FoxCordele, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#36Nathan GershDexter, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#46Hunter ProbstSanta Rosa, CAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#45Reece StrittmatterAdel, IALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Michigan StateNon-conference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 52% win
AwaySep 48:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Central ConnecticutNon-conference · Glass Bowl · 4M 13–38 · 92% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3TempleNon-conference · Glass Bowl · 4M 21–30 · 70% win
HomeSep 193:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
San Diego StateNon-conference · Glass Bowl · 4M 24–25 · 51% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Ball StateConference · Scheumann Stadium · 4M 31–18 · 77% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
BuffaloConference · Glass Bowl · 4M 18–31 · 76% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Eastern MichiganConference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 65% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Western MichiganConference · Glass Bowl · 4M 23–26 · 56% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Sacramento StateConference · Hornet Stadium · 4M 30–20 · 71% win
AwayNov 412:00 AM EST · model ↗11
MassachusettsConference · Glass Bowl · 4M 14–36 · 89% win
HomeNov 1112:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Bowling GreenConference · Glass Bowl · 4M 19–30 · 73% win
HomeNov 207:30 PM EST · model ↗13
OhioConference · Peden Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 53% win
AwayNov 2712:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Toledo diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Toledo to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?