The 2026 outlook
How quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?
Oregon State opens No. 107 nationally and No. 7 of 8 in the Pac-12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.2 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 3.5 regular-season wins.
Oregon State begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 71 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Oregon State beats its 3.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJaMarcus Shephard0–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Robb Akey
Portal ledger20 in · 36 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#2Braden AtkinsonRaleigh, NCQB3.4 pts57% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#1Adonis McDanielColumbia, SCWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 172 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#80Eric OlsenSt. George, UTTE0.7 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Utah Tech
#8DeCorion TempleYpsilanti, MITE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Central Michigan
#67Broderick ShullBixby, OKOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 331 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#56Carter GuillaumeLouisville, KYOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#69Kwan JohnsonBlue Island, ILOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Illinois
#50Teko ShoatsMiami, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Bethune-Cookman
#90Daniel MatagiChehalis, WADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Portland State
#7Aeryn HamptonDaingerfield, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#22Isaiah HouiRockton, ILDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Illinois
#23AJ NewberryGrand Prairie, TXRB0.4 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Vanderbilt
#1Dylan LayneLake Oswego, ORLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Idaho
#17Ish FindlayterToronto, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Duquesne
#6Jabari OdoemenemWoodbridge, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom Duquesne
#98Jadyn OhChantilly, VAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#40Jonathan ZarutMiami, FLLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#47Tug SanfordAllen, TXLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Stephen F. Austin
#10Brady JonesMurrieta, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′4″ · 197 lbTransfer infrom Western Michigan
#6Maalik MurphyInglewood, CAQB2.0 pts40% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 238 lbReturning
#5Karson BoschmaTigard, ORWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbReturning
#14Eddie FreauffPrineville, ORWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#82Gabe MilbournSonora, CATE0.6 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#17Malachi DurantSeattle, WAWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#76Ben HartmanAustin, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#58Jack WagnerSan Juan Capistrano, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#74Jacob AndersonBillings, MTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#61Jake NormoyleWest Linn, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#71Josiah TimoteoWaianae, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#51Maddox ConwayCorvallis, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbReturning
#78Nathan EluSan Mateo, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#72Noah ThomasVancouver, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#79Tyler VoltinHometown not listedOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 335 lbReturning
#75Will LarkinsHollywood, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbReturning
#62Jacob SchusterLacey, WADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 330 lbReturning
#91Jaylen HillPortland, ORDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#45Jesse MyersUkiah, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 256 lbReturning
#96Luke LevengoodVacaville, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 275 lbReturning
#92Nick NorrisFort Morgan, CODT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbReturning
#59Tevita Pome'eHaakameDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#60Tiger BlackRoseburg, ORDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbReturning
#95Tygee HillNew Orleans, LADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbReturning
#3Cornell Hatcher Jr.Corona, CARB0.5 pts58% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#34Jake ReichleLake Oswego, ORRB0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#41Jhae DrummerLong Beach, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#84Cody SiegnerCrane, ORTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 255 lbReturning
#87Jackson BowersMesa, AZTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#89T'Andre WaverlyEverett, WATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#28Blake ThompsonRichmond, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#20David MadisonPlano, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 176 lbReturning
#36Drake VickersNorth Hollywood, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 204 lbReturning
#23Exodus AyersAlbuquerque, NMDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#0Harlem HowardPompano Beach, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#38Milan ClarkPortland, ORDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 182 lbReturning
#21Noble Thomas Jr.Orange City, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Sailasa Vadrawale IIIRohnert Park, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#33Sean CraigLas Vegas, NVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#4TJ CrandallSammamish, WADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#19Trey GlasperLas Vegas, NVDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#24Tyjai HopperAlpharetta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#29Zephen WalkerLewisville, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbReturning
#2Aiden SullivanTwentynine Palms, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#54Clive PondEnumclaw, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#12Gyriece GoodmanDe Pere, WILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbReturning
#55Jeremiah IoaneLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#48Jessaia MoalaSyracuse, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 232 lbReturning
#14Kord ShawOgden, UTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#10Logan KnappClayton, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 255 lbReturning
#99Niklas FisherCypress, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbReturning
#9Raesjon DavisNorco, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 228 lbReturning
#44Takari HickleTenino, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#47Tyree BlakePortland, ORLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#50Will HaverlandEugene, ORLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning
#25Kourdey GlassHanford, CARB0.4 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#33Skyler JacksonLas Vegas, NVRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#37Cameron SmithLoomis, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbReturning
#38AJ WinsorMukilteo, WAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#28Caleb OjedaMorgan Hill, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#4Xavyion NolandSan Diego, CAWR0.5 pts36% role · 52% conf.5′6″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#59Frankie PetuyaNovato, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 318 lbNew / unverified
#70Michael LangiSan Bruno, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#65Peter LangiSan Francisco, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 380 lbNew / unverified
#55Tanu A'aituiLayton, UTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#94Cameron HewittPearl, MSDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#93Lolani FinauHawthorne, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#97Tyler BaileyHammond, LADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#0Aaron ButlerCalabasas, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#16Cynai ThomasEast Palo Alto, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#15Jameson PowellFolsom, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#18Jayden PadgettTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#12Jesse LegreeBaltimore, MDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#21MJ KennybrewPortland, ORWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#88Ross NicksonLos Angeles, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#81Landon CookConcord, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#7Kahanu KalahikiKaimuki, HIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#25Kai WheatonAllen, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#26Marquis RaspberryWashington, DCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#15RJ WhittenSacramento, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#5Xander ChisolmBakersfield, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#88Adel DorrIssaquah, WALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#58Adrian OnyiegoRogers, MNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#42Caleb MetznerMobile, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 256 lbNew / unverified
#18Jarrel ComerGainesville, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#13Jeremiah BrownMenifee, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#13Danny LearyPortland, ORQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#19Isaiah ArriazaLa Verne, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′9″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#27Rocco De La RosaPhilomath, ORRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#22Tre GarrisonNew Orleans, LARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1HoustonNon-conference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 22% win
AwaySep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Texas TechNon-conference · Reser Stadium · 4M 34–15 · 15% win
HomeSep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
MontanaNon-conference · Reser Stadium · 4M 26–26 · 51% win
HomeSep 1911:00 PM EDT · model ↗4UTEPNon-conference · Sun Bowl · 4M 26–23 · 56% win
AwaySep 269:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
Colorado StateConference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 46% win
AwayOct 36:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
San Diego StateConference · Reser Stadium · 4M 28–21 · 34% win
HomeOct 106:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Washington StateConference · Reser Stadium · 4M 29–22 · 35% win
HomeOct 176:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
Fresno StateConference · Valley Children's Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 37% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Texas StateConference · Reser Stadium · 4M 30–24 · 37% win
HomeNov 710:30 PM EST · model ↗11
Boise StateConference · Albertsons Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 26% win
AwayNov 146:00 PM EST · model ↗12
Utah StateConference · Reser Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 47% win
HomeNov 2110:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case1 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Oregon State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Oregon State to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionHow quickly will this roster establish itself inside the rebuilt Pac-12 hierarchy?