The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
Tulsa opens No. 108 nationally and No. 10 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.2 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.9 regular-season wins.
Tulsa begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 95 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Tulsa beats its 4.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachTre Lamb4–8 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger21 in · 22 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#5Dexter Williams IIMacon, GAQB2.0 pts42% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Kennesaw State
#9Javon RossDeLand, FLWR0.8 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Bethune-Cookman
#1David Wells Jr.Lakewood, WAWR0.6 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#2Oran Singleton Jr.Clewiston, FLWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 165 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#4DJ McKinneyTulsa, OKRB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico
#7Jimmy CallowayMorrow, GAWR0.5 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Tulane
#50Malachi PreciadoNew Orleans, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#6Damari AlstonAtlanta, GARB0.5 pts60% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#20Trequan JonesBartow, FLRB0.5 pts59% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#10Arias NashCharlotte, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#90Jayden MadkinsHouston, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech
#0Kyran DuhonLafayette, LADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#15Thomas DavisValdosta, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom App State
#11Grant McAteeMount Zion, ILTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom North Central College
#16Caldra WillifordSt. Louis, MOCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#19Rylan LeathersAmarillo, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Idaho State
#24Devin HightowerTwinsburg, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#23Seth DavisKaty, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#18Marlon HauckPhoenix, AZPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#29Max TulenMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Bethune-Cookman
#10Baylor HayesBrentwood, TNQB2.7 pts57% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#3Micah TeaseTulsa, OKWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#0Donnell Gee Jr.Allen, TXWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#19Grayson TempestTulsa, OKWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#15Josh SmithHeartland, TXWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#84Jewlyen RobertsDallas, TXTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#77Brody DuffelBixby, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#73Cam EastMarrero, LAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 330 lbReturning
#56Colten ChristianCollinsville, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#75Evan McClureBixby, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#60Hunter ErbNewark, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbReturning
#52Ian MayesGrand Prairie, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#53Jack HoodClayton, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#51Javion AntaiTulsa, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#76Josh LoveParker, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#74Logan RichRockwall, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 280 lbReturning
#66Will MorrisEdmond, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#21Aquavious DunbarLake Village, ARDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 255 lbReturning
#32Hudson BallSpringdale, ARDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#30Maruio White Jr.Arlington, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#56Nathan PriceOwasso, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbReturning
#99Tai NewhouseLawrence, KSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#40Tristan LawyerFrisco, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#58Tyler RichOwasso, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#41Will UpshawFlower Mound, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#85Cole GreeneEdmond, OKWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#82Chris Gacayan IIAxtell, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#87Jackson ShockleyLantana, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning
#86Luke TevisFort Worth, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#7Elijah GreenMidwest City, OKCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#3JD DrewTulsa, OKCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#13NuNu CampbellTulsa, OKCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#5Ashton WilliamsTrophy Club, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#12Dedaunte ScottKennedale, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#20RJ McIntoshLucas, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#1Zach WilliamsTyler, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#2Devin RobinsonTulsa, OKDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#22Ty WilliamsMuskogee, OKDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#27Zane WoodhamTulsa, OKDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#22Kelvin WashingtonLongview, TXRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#35C.J. TurnerStar City, ARLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#53Caleb BowersDallas, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#6Chris Thompson Jr.Desoto, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#9Dax CollinsPoteau, OKLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#34Elijah WilsonDuncanville, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbReturning
#25Sam StoneTulsa, OKLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#33William AlexanderMagnolia, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#28Sevion MorrisonTulsa, OKRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#95Evan GuenthnerNoblesville, INPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning
#44Henry SimonTulsa, OKP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#42Aidan FediganDeLand, FLLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#16Andrew AlfordColumbus, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#70Alan PondStorm Lake, IAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#61Brooks BarronOwasso, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#63Chaden SullivanChandler, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#78Davis DotsonTulsa, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#58Dawson MatthewsAda, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#65Nick AnciauxWichita, KSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#54Ross JohnstonBlanchard, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#69Ryley KesterJenks, OKOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#91Carson DempseyAledo, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#88Dailen HowardAthens, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#11Jaylen GeorgeSuwanee, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#44Kadin FossungGainesville, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#18Courtney Lewis Jr.Katy, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#13Joshua RushingLawton, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#26Kainon GibsonTulsa, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#88Xavier GreenThe Colony, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#89Kuba MaleckiDroghedaTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#32Max MooreMannford, OKTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#26Julian ByrdFairburn, GACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#29Keynan FarleyTulsa, OKCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#8Korbyn GreenTulsa, OKCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#23Willie GoodwynMontgomery, ALCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#39Zach ClatonRancho Santa Margarita, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#47Austin BussmanSouthlake, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#28Carter LangenderferOwasso, OKS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#46Luke BussmanSouthlake, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#4Tyson WilliamsBixby, OKS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#42Reilarean PhillipsHouston, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#37Rohon KazadiPlano, TXDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#38Jack WattsNashville, TNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#18Raymir ConeyCincinnati, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#19Barrett MullenTulsa, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#12Connor DantzlerCharleston, SCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#15Kincayde EngTulsa, OKQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#8Kyden BarkerLeague City, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#21Jamarcea PlaterShreveport, LARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#10Owen CareyJacksonville, FLPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#41Joel BazinetOrange Park, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Oklahoma StateNon-conference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 51% win
HomeSep 53:45 PM EDT · model ↗2
Sam HoustonNon-conference · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 4M 28–22 · 62% win
AwaySep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
East Texas A&MNon-conference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 15–36 · 88% win
HomeSep 198:00 PM EDT · model ↗4ArkansasNon-conference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 21–33 · 27% win
AwaySep 268:00 PM EDT · model ↗5
North TexasConference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 39% win
HomeOct 19:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
NavyConference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 23–30 · 34% win
AwayOct 103:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
RiceConference · Rice Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 55% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
ArmyConference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 44% win
HomeOct 238:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
TulaneConference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 21–30 · 31% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Florida AtlanticConference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 52% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
CharlotteConference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 19–29 · 71% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
UTSAConference · Alamodome · 4M 20–30 · 29% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Tulsa diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Tulsa to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?