The 2026 outlook
Is there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?
Virginia Tech opens No. 58 nationally and No. 12 of 17 in the ACC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 1.6 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5 regular-season wins.
Virginia Tech sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 42 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Virginia Tech beats its 5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJames Franklin44–17 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Philip Montgomery
Portal ledger27 in · 27 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#17Ethan GrunkemeyerLewis Center, OHQB4.8 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 218 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#3Que'Sean BrownWinston-Salem, NCWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Duke
#85Luke ReynoldsWestford, MATE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#5Marlion JacksonFlowery Branch, GAWR0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech
#32Bill DavisLaplace, LARB0.6 pts69% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana
#61Justin BellMacomb Township, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 327 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#72Justin TerryPickerington, OHOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 358 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#70Logan HowlandWestfield, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#54Michael Troutman IIITrenton, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 316 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#34Cortez HarrisLargo, MDDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#56Daniel JenningsPrinceton, WVDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#45Eric MensahStafford, VADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#40Javion HilsonCocoa, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#37Mylachi WilliamsPhiladelphia, PADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 253 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#36Randy AdirikaMiami, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 316 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#51Samuel OkunlolaBrockton, MADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 249 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#20Jeff Exinor Jr.Baltimore, MDWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#19Tyseer DenmarkPhiladelphia, PAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#44Matt HendersonPowhatan, VATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 243 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#20Cam Chadwick Jr.Plainfield, NJCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#2Jaquez WhiteBlackshear, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Troy
#22Kenny Woseley Jr.Philadelphia, PACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#30Curtis Jones Jr.Huntington, WVLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 234 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#33Keon WyliePhiladelphia, PALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#95Nathan TottenAshland, KYP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 231 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#49Deed CapperMequon, WILS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 223 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin
#22Bryce BakerKernersville, NCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#0Ayden GreeneKnoxville, TNWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbReturning
#15Shamarius PeterkinWinston-Salem, NCWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 183 lbReturning
#2Takye HeathRichmond, VAWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 172 lbReturning
#13Ja'Ricous HairstonBassett, VATE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 251 lbReturning
#82Benji GosnellMeadows Of Dan, VATE0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#27Marcellous HawkinsOklahoma City, OKRB0.6 pts73% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 223 lbReturning
#76Aidan LynchFlanders, NJOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 319 lbReturning
#77Brody MeadowsBluefield, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 342 lbReturning
#51Elijah HaughawoutSuwanee, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#71Gavin CrawfordSilver Spring, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 320 lbReturning
#79Johnny GarrettScituate, MAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 323 lbReturning
#62Kyle AltunerOlney, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbReturning
#56Layth GhannamCharleston, WVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 314 lbReturning
#57Lucas AustinSterling, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#66Montavious CunninghamAthens, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 318 lbReturning
#50Nathaniel WrightManassas, VAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 308 lbReturning
#53Tommy RicardHudson, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 307 lbReturning
#87Harrison Saint GermainCentreville, VATE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 246 lbReturning
#90Andrew HanchukBerea, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 294 lbReturning
#42Aycen StevensIndianapolis, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#44Brett ClatterbaughCulpeper, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 250 lbReturning
#88Christian EvansLeesburg, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 298 lbReturning
#32Deric DandyMount Airy, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#94Elhadj FallMarietta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 301 lbReturning
#99Emmett LawsElkton, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 302 lbReturning
#55Gerard Johnson IIIVirginia Beach, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 293 lbReturning
#54Grant KarczewskiCrozet, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 292 lbReturning
#31Jason AbbeyRichmond, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 256 lbReturning
#13Kemari CopelandVirginia Beach, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#52Sherrod HendersonRocky Point, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 242 lbReturning
#58Zeke ChinwikeVirginia Beach, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 258 lbReturning
#23Tyler MasonMount Airy, NCRB0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 211 lbReturning
#16Jeffrey Overton Jr.Woodbridge, VARB0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 205 lbReturning
#18A.J. BrandCharlotte, NCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#7Chanz WigginsKing George, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbReturning
#28Drew HubeGainesville, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbReturning
#81Israel HairstonVinton, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 181 lbReturning
#86Joseph HobbsNorfolk, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbReturning
#6Keylen AdamsVirginia Beach, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#80L.J. BookerRichmond, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#83Luke StueweAvon Lake, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#36Brody JonesBristol, VATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning
#99Cole ReemsnyderSouth Riding, VATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 238 lbReturning
#9Isaiah Brown-MurrayCharlotte, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 198 lbReturning
#29Jahmari DeLoatchChesapeake, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#35Jojo CrimCamden, SCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbReturning
#43Josh JonesAldie, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 194 lbReturning
#5Joshua ClarkeAlexandria, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbReturning
#23Thomas WilliamsGreenville, SCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#15Brennan JohnsonRichmond, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbReturning
#6Jordan BassHampton, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbReturning
#28Knahlij HarrellVirginia Beach, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbReturning
#0Quentin ReddishCharlotte, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbReturning
#14Sheldon RobinsonWoodberry Forest, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 211 lbReturning
#7Sherrod Covil Jr.Chesapeake, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 202 lbReturning
#11Tyson FlowersFort Worth, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbReturning
#26Antwone SantiagoMeriden, CTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 233 lbReturning
#12Gabe WilliamsBowie, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#41George BallanceVirginia Beach, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 233 lbReturning
#3Kaleb SpencerGloucester, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 229 lbReturning
#16Noah ChambersPrince George County, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 228 lbReturning
#46Darius TaylorRichmond, VARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 243 lbReturning
#35John BuetowIrmo, SCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 213 lbReturning
#92Aiden DaughertyWinston-Salem, NCPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#17John LoveSpartanburg, SCPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbReturning
#93Cole ByrdBassett, VAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#96Christian EplingHoschton, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning
#12Kelden RyanFort Worth, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#75Benjamin EziukaCanton, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 324 lbNew / unverified
—Buddy WegdamMarshall, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 296 lbNew / unverified
—Maddox CochraneMidlothian, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 284 lbNew / unverified
#74Marlen BrightWayne, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#58Roseby LubintusElizabeth, NJOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 374 lbNew / unverified
—Thomas WilderVirginia Beach, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 313 lbNew / unverified
#65Tyrell SimpsonLeland, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 354 lbNew / unverified
#91Garrett WitheringtonBirmingham, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#63Kamren JohnsonVirginia Beach, VADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 243 lbNew / unverified
#95T-Ron Richardson Jr.Petersburg, VADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 289 lbNew / unverified
—Tyson HarleyUpper Marlboro, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 243 lbNew / unverified
—Davion BrownRichmond, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
—Hudson ZellGreensboro, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
—Pierce PetersohnDodge Center, MNTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#18Amauri PolydorBaltimore, MDCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#47Daniel GarvinAlexandria, VACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
—Zaevion ClevelandVirginia Beach, VACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#24Tyrell Grant Jr.Suffolk, VAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#38John-Patrick OatesPhiladelphia, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#19Mathieu LamahBristow, VALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 231 lbNew / unverified
#39Terry WigginsCoatesville, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbNew / unverified
#14Troy HuhnCarlsbad, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 222 lbNew / unverified
#49Gray PetersonAppomattox, VARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#26Messiah MickensHarrisburg, PARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#98Will LoveSpartanburg, SCPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
—Luke JonesVirginia Beach, VAP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1VMINon-conference · Lane Stadium · 4M 12–42 · 95% win
HomeSep 57:30 PM EDT · model ↗2Old DominionNon-conference · Lane Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 57% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
MarylandNon-conference · SECU Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 48% win
AwaySep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Boston CollegeConference · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · 4M 29–25 · 58% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
PittsburghConference · Lane Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 46% win
HomeOct 27:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
CaliforniaConference · California Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 47% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Georgia TechConference · Lane Stadium · 4M 28–28 · 50% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
ClemsonConference · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 4M 22–30 · 33% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
SMUConference · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 32% win
AwayNov 67:00 PM EST · model ↗11
StanfordConference · Lane Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 67% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
MiamiConference · Hard Rock Stadium · 4M 18–35 · 18% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
VirginiaConference · Lane Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 48% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Virginia Tech diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Virginia Tech's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionIs there enough week-to-week consistency to turn ACC opportunity into a conference-title run?