The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
Wisconsin opens No. 57 nationally and No. 13 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 2.1 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.9 regular-season wins.
Wisconsin sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 49 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Wisconsin beats its 4.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachLuke Fickell39–25 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger33 in · 25 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#1Colton JosephNewport Beach, CAQB2.4 pts42% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Old Dominion
#9Jaylon DomingeauxLafayette, LAWR0.8 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Southeastern Louisiana
#7Shamar RigbySt. Petersburg, FLWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#84Ryan SchwendemanO' Fallon, MOTE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 254 lbTransfer infrom Southern Illinois
#3Abu Sama IIIDes Moines, IARB0.6 pts72% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#89Jacob HarrisColumbus, OHTE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 270 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#12Zion KearneyFresno, TXWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#16Malachi ColemanLincoln, NEWR0.6 pts41% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Minnesota
#51Austin KaweckiFrisco, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 311 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#73Blake CherryClaremore, OKOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#71PJ WilkinsAtlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 340 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#76Stylz BlackmonGrain Valley, MOOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 316 lbTransfer infrom Augustana
#93DeNigel CooperKingsland, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom App State
#91Hammond Russell IVColumbus, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 314 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#97Junior PoyserBrampton, ONDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 328 lbTransfer infrom Buffalo
#26Eli AdamsAustin, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#5Bryce WestCleveland, OHCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#3Cai BatesOrlando, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#1Eric Fletcher Jr.Fort Myers, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#2Javan RobinsonOrlando, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#11Carson Van DinterKaukauna, WIS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#4Marvin Burks Jr.St. Louis, MOS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#15Nate PalmerDecatur, TXRB0.4 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom TCU
#21Bryan Jackson IIMcKinney, TXRB0.4 pts48% role · 76% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom USC
#39Jayden LoftinSomerville, NJLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#28Jon Jon KamaraGoodyear, AZLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 242 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#0Justus BooneSumter, SCLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#14Liam DanitzWest Branch, MILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 242 lbTransfer infrom Hope
#98Ethan TranelBlue Mounds, WIP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin La Crosse
#46James RoeKennesaw, GALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#8Deuce AdamsAustin, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#18Danny O'NeilIndianapolis, INQB1.8 pts36% starter · 76% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#5Carter SmithFort Myers, FLQB0.9 pts20% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 208 lbReturning
#2Chris Brooks Jr.Saint Louis, MOWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#87Jackson McGohanMiamisburg, OHWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 224 lbReturning
#85Grant StecSleepy Hollow, ILTE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#70Barrett NelsonStoughton, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#53Cam ClarkDexter, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 300 lbReturning
#78Colin CubberlyLaGrange, NYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 324 lbReturning
#75Emerson MandellMounds View, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 324 lbReturning
#64Evan BrownTallahassee, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#52Hardy WattsBoston, MAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#55Kevin HeywoodLimerick, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′9″ · 318 lbReturning
#79Logan PowellPhoenix, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 303 lbReturning
#58Michael RoeskeWautoma, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 328 lbReturning
#60Nolan DavenportMassillon, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 303 lbReturning
#77Peyton LangeMinneapolis, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′9″ · 345 lbReturning
#50Ryan CoryGibsonia, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 311 lbReturning
#0Tyrell HenryRoseville, MIWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#30Charles PerkinsMemphis, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 330 lbReturning
#76Dillan JohnsonPlainfield, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 316 lbReturning
#85Hayden MetzgerPewaukee, WIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#92Nolan VilsPrairie Du Sac, WIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 304 lbReturning
#98Torin PettawayMiddleton, WIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 298 lbReturning
#94Xavier UkponuDenton, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 318 lbReturning
#13Eugene Hilton Jr.Zionsville, INWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning
#6Darrion DupreeChicago, ILRB0.5 pts69% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 214 lbReturning
#19Langdon NordgaardDe Pere, WIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbReturning
#81Mason KelleyMukwonago, WIWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#82Emmett BorkOconomowoc, WITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 255 lbReturning
#17Nizyi DavisIndianapolis, INTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbReturning
#42Tyler JanseyBatavia, ILTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 236 lbReturning
#10Jahmare WashingtonChicago, ILCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 175 lbReturning
#24Jai'mier ScottCincinnati, OHCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbReturning
#21Cairo SkanesAsheville, NCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#16Grant DeanNeenah, WIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#20Luke EmmerichMonticello, MNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#29Matthew JungNeenah, WIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbReturning
#13Matthew TraynorMarietta, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning
#27Raphael DunnLawrenceville, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 218 lbReturning
#59Aaron WittWinona, MNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbReturning
#44Cooper CatalanoRichfield, WILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 232 lbReturning
#55Drew BraamOak Creek, WILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#47Evan Van Dyn HovenMenasha, WILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbReturning
#22Jaylen WilliamsChicago, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 272 lbReturning
#23Landon GauthierGreen Bay, WILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 244 lbReturning
#8Mason PosaAlbuquerque, NMLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 237 lbReturning
#51Micheal GarnerChicago Heights, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 309 lbReturning
#12Nicolas ClaytonGainesville, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#50Sam LatejuLagosLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#15Sebastian CheeksSkokie, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 243 lbReturning
#19Thomas HeibergerSioux Falls, SDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#7Tyreese FearbryPittsburgh, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 252 lbReturning
#77Will McDonaldHoulton, WILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 273 lbReturning
#32Harrison BortolottiWhitefish Bay, WIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 202 lbReturning
#38Mason LaneLodi, WIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning
#97Gavin LahmKaukauna, WIPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbReturning
#91Sean WestMequon, WIP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbReturning
#48Andrew GoodmanMontreal, PQLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbReturning
#65Aiden DirksenGreen Bay, WIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 338 lbNew / unverified
#54Brady BekkenhuisArlington, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#72Lucas Simmons-JohanssonStockholmOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 323 lbNew / unverified
#96Arthur Scott IIIStreetsboro, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#90Djidjou BahMemphis, TNDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#95Jacob AndersonDavis, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#22Dorsett SteckerNewport Beach, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#11Kash BrockChandler, AZWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 184 lbNew / unverified
#14Keeyshawn TabuteauMontreal, PQWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#24Zion LegreePensacola, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#49Aydon FickellMadison, WITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#86Jack SieversEverett, WATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbNew / unverified
#37Treve StoffelMosinee, WITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 214 lbNew / unverified
#17Carsen ElomsFishers, INCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#18Donovan DunmoreClovis, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#26Kah'Ni WattsFort Myers, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#25Will MikonowiczReedsburg, WIS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#34Ashton FickellMadison, WILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbNew / unverified
#49Ben WenzelAppleton, WILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#43Taylor SchaeferSturgeon Bay, WILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#45Yahya GaadMedina, TNLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#10Ryan HopkinsNewport Beach, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#20Juju PopePope, MSRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#94Brady MelumSun Prairie, WIPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
#90Will KellyMadison, WIP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Notre DameNon-conference · Lambeau Field · 4M 17–34 · 18% win
NeutralSep 67:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Western IllinoisNon-conference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 10–40 · 95% win
HomeSep 127:15 PM EDT · model ↗3Eastern MichiganNon-conference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 74% win
HomeSep 1912:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Penn StateConference · Beaver Stadium · 4M 19–31 · 25% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Michigan StateConference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 64% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
UCLAConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 24–26 · 45% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
USCConference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 30–21 · 30% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
IowaConference · Kinnick Stadium · 4M 20–29 · 30% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
RutgersConference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 57% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
MarylandConference · SECU Stadium · 4M 24–25 · 47% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
PurdueConference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 25–25 · 50% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
MinnesotaConference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 53% win
HomeNov 277:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Wisconsin diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Wisconsin's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?